Compendium › Lucky Strike › IWM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IWM
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 5 trades in period

+1.72%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,735.75
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$12,520.49
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:46:49

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
41.2 neutral
20d Trend
-2.2%
5d Trend
-1.3%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
63%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 57%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
19.2/35
Total Return
12.1/25
Win Rate
4.3/15
Profit Factor
3.0/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 43.9/100
× Confidence 0.57 = 25.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (57%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,297
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,520.49
Current Value
$12,735.75
Period P&L
$215.27
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
2 / 3
Best Trade
+3.63%
Worst Trade
-2.64%
Avg Trade Return
+0.37%
Avg Hold Time
13.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$123,348.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$215.27
Net P&L (after fees)
$215.27
Gross Return
+1.72%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.72%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IWM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $12,520.49 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET $237.97 52 $12,374.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 1:25pm ET $237.62 52 $12,356.24 $12,502.29 $-18.20
(-0.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
6.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $236.70 52 $12,308.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 1:50pm ET $230.44 52 $11,982.88 $12,176.77 $-325.52
(-2.6%) 		TRAIL_STOP
3.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET $245.88 49 $12,048.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 16, 2025 12:55pm ET $248.85 49 $12,193.65 $12,322.30 +$145.53
(+1.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
15.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 9:30am ET $252.73 48 $12,131.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:10am ET $261.90 48 $12,571.20 $12,762.46 +$440.16
(+3.6%) 		TRAIL_STOP
37d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $259.27 49 $12,704.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 12:55pm ET $258.73 49 $12,677.77 $12,735.75 $-26.70
(-0.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
7.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,735.75
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,735.75
Total Return: +27.36%
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