Compendium › Lucky Strike › QQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
QQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-12-20 to present • 2 trades in period

-2.82%
Last 6 Months Return
$14,354.78
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$14,771.89
Period Start
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PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-20 12:51:27

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 53%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
30.5/35
Total Return
13.7/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
5.7/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 58.6/100
× Confidence 0.53 = 31.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (53%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,165
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
131 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,771.89
Current Value
$14,354.78
Period P&L
$-417.12
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-3.94

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
0 / 2
Best Trade
-1.08%
Worst Trade
-1.82%
Avg Trade Return
-1.45%
Avg Hold Time
41.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$56,981.66
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-417.12
Net P&L (after fees)
$-417.12
Gross Return
-2.82%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.82%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 131 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $14,771.89 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET $620.45 23 $14,270.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:10pm ET $613.73 23 $14,115.79 $14,617.34 $-154.56
(-1.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
36.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $601.21 24 $14,429.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $590.27 24 $14,166.48 $14,354.78 $-262.56
(-1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
46d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,354.78
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,354.78
Total Return: +43.55%
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