Compendium › Lucky Strike › QQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
QQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 5 trades in period

-5.94%
Last 6 Months Return
$14,354.78
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$15,261.58
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:50:04

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

40
Lifetime
Confidence: 67%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
30.5/35
Total Return
13.7/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
5.7/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 58.6/100
× Confidence 0.67 = 39.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (67%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,628
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$15,261.58
Current Value
$14,354.78
Period P&L
$-906.81
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
2 / 3
Best Trade
+3.51%
Worst Trade
-3.51%
Avg Trade Return
-0.22%
Avg Hold Time
27.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$143,892.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-906.81
Net P&L (after fees)
$-906.81
Gross Return
-5.94%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.94%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $15,261.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $593.41 24 $14,241.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 10:35am ET $614.23 24 $14,741.52 $15,034.06 +$499.68
(+3.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
23.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET $616.52 24 $14,796.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 9:55am ET $594.86 24 $14,276.64 $14,514.22 $-519.84
(-3.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:55am ET $595.77 24 $14,298.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 10:40am ET $606.50 24 $14,556.03 $14,771.90 +$257.67
(+1.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
26.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET $620.45 23 $14,270.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:10pm ET $613.73 23 $14,115.79 $14,617.34 $-154.56
(-1.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
36.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $601.21 24 $14,429.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $590.27 24 $14,166.48 $14,354.78 $-262.56
(-1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
46d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,354.78
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,354.78
Total Return: +43.55%
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