Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 07:53:49

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 27, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 68%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.3/35
Total Return
7.8/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 18.0/100
× Confidence 0.68 = 12.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (68%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
56,936
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
532 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,231.32
Current Value
$10,759.32
Total P&L
$1,528.01
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
59
Winners / Losers
21 / 38
Best Trade
+22.83%
Worst Trade
-7.52%
Avg Trade Return
+0.59%
Avg Hold Time
6.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,428,147.84
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,528.01
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,528.01
Gross Return
+16.55%
Net Return (after fees)
+16.55%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 532 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $9,231.32 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 6, 2024 10:25am ET $42.47 196 $8,323.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 1, 2024 10:10am ET $46.23 196 $9,061.08 $9,080.39 +$737.94
(+8.9%)
TRAIL_STOP
25d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 3, 2024 9:30am ET $45.68 198 $9,044.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 23, 2024 11:20am ET $46.33 198 $9,173.34 $9,209.09 +$128.70
(+1.4%)
TRAIL_STOP
20.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 29, 2024 9:30am ET $47.97 191 $9,162.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 31, 2024 9:35am ET $47.11 191 $8,998.01 $9,044.83 $-164.26
(-1.8%)
TRAIL_STOP
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2024 9:30am ET $46.03 196 $9,021.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2024 9:30am ET $56.54 196 $11,081.84 $11,104.79 +$2,059.96
(+22.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2024 2:25pm ET $56.08 198 $11,103.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2024 3:05pm ET $54.27 198 $10,744.47 $10,745.42 $-359.37
(-3.2%)
TRAIL_STOP
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2024 10:05am ET $54.87 195 $10,699.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 11:05am ET $60.83 195 $11,860.88 $11,906.63 +$1,161.21
(+10.9%)
TRAIL_STOP
19d held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2024 11:05am ET $61.25 194 $11,882.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2024 2:50pm ET $60.74 194 $11,783.56 $11,807.69 $-98.94
(-0.8%)
TRAIL_STOP
8.2d held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 20, 2024 9:30am ET $57.42 205 $11,771.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 27, 2024 10:10am ET $58.92 205 $12,078.60 $12,115.19 +$307.50
(+2.6%)
TRAIL_STOP
7d held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2024 9:35am ET $57.29 211 $12,088.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2025 10:30am ET $59.54 211 $12,562.94 $12,589.94 +$474.75
(+3.9%)
TRAIL_STOP
7d held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET $57.50 218 $12,535.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2025 9:35am ET $55.63 218 $12,127.34 $12,182.28 $-407.66
(-3.3%)
TRAIL_STOP
3d held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2025 10:55am ET $57.23 212 $12,132.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET $60.13 212 $12,747.56 $12,797.08 +$614.80
(+5.1%)
TRAIL_STOP
12.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2025 1:00pm ET $61.33 208 $12,756.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET $60.67 208 $12,619.36 $12,659.80 $-137.28
(-1.1%)
TRAIL_STOP
4.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2025 9:30am ET $63.15 200 $12,630.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2025 11:15am ET $61.79 200 $12,357.00 $12,386.80 $-273.00
(-2.2%)
TRAIL_STOP
5.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2025 3:25pm ET $65.52 189 $12,383.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 21, 2025 9:55am ET $63.40 189 $11,982.60 $11,986.12 $-400.68
(-3.2%)
TRAIL_STOP
1.8d held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 9:55am ET $58.70 204 $11,974.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2025 9:55am ET $56.79 204 $11,585.16 $11,596.48 $-389.64
(-3.3%)
TRAIL_STOP
1d held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2025 1:25pm ET $56.56 205 $11,594.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2025 2:30pm ET $55.48 205 $11,372.89 $11,374.56 $-221.91
(-1.9%)
TRAIL_STOP
1d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2025 10:45am ET $55.71 204 $11,364.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2025 9:30am ET $51.52 204 $10,510.08 $10,519.80 $-854.76
(-7.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2025 9:35am ET $52.99 198 $10,492.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2025 9:40am ET $52.62 198 $10,418.76 $10,446.54 $-73.26
(-0.7%)
TRAIL_STOP
1d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 7, 2025 10:30am ET $51.37 203 $10,428.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $49.92 203 $10,133.76 $10,152.19 $-294.35
(-2.8%)
TRAIL_STOP
2.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2025 10:45am ET $47.29 214 $10,120.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 9:50am ET $48.13 214 $10,299.82 $10,331.95 +$179.76
(+1.8%)
TRAIL_STOP
2d held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2025 9:30am ET $48.71 212 $10,326.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2025 10:20am ET $52.32 212 $11,091.84 $11,097.27 +$765.32
(+7.4%)
TRAIL_STOP
8d held
22 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2025 3:50pm ET $50.84 218 $11,083.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 28, 2025 3:50pm ET $48.73 218 $10,622.05 $10,636.20 $-461.07
(-4.2%)
TRAIL_STOP
1d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2025 10:10am ET $46.87 226 $10,592.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET $46.32 226 $10,468.34 $10,511.93 $-124.28
(-1.2%)
TRAIL_STOP
2d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET $43.09 243 $10,470.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 10:45am ET $40.45 243 $9,829.35 $9,870.41 $-641.52
(-6.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 11:20am ET $40.98 240 $9,835.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 12:15pm ET $42.59 240 $10,221.60 $10,256.81 +$386.40
(+3.9%)
TRAIL_STOP
1d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 9:30am ET $45.47 225 $10,230.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2025 9:50am ET $45.40 225 $10,215.00 $10,241.06 $-15.75
(-0.2%)
TRAIL_STOP
6d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $44.72 229 $10,239.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET $49.81 229 $11,405.35 $11,406.64 +$1,165.59
(+11.4%)
TRAIL_STOP
9d held
28 🟢 BUY May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $50.71 224 $11,359.04 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2025 10:30am ET $50.64 224 $11,343.36 $11,390.96 $-15.68
(-0.1%)
TRAIL_STOP
3.8d held
29 🟢 BUY May 7, 2025 2:05pm ET $48.80 233 $11,370.40 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2025 9:45am ET $56.21 233 $13,096.93 $13,117.49 +$1,726.53
(+15.2%)
TRAIL_STOP
7.8d held
30 🟢 BUY May 19, 2025 9:30am ET $56.79 230 $13,061.70 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2025 3:05pm ET $55.64 230 $12,797.20 $12,852.99 $-264.50
(-2.0%)
TRAIL_STOP
2.2d held
31 🟢 BUY May 23, 2025 9:30am ET $55.74 230 $12,820.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 30, 2025 9:35am ET $55.99 230 $12,877.70 $12,910.49 +$57.50
(+0.4%)
TRAIL_STOP
7d held
32 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2025 2:00pm ET $57.99 222 $12,873.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2025 3:10pm ET $56.33 222 $12,505.26 $12,541.97 $-368.52
(-2.9%)
TRAIL_STOP
2d held
33 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2025 11:30am ET $62.15 201 $12,492.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2025 3:30pm ET $61.98 201 $12,457.98 $12,507.80 $-34.17
(-0.3%)
TRAIL_STOP
2.2d held
34 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2025 1:45pm ET $63.80 196 $12,503.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2025 12:30pm ET $67.07 196 $13,145.72 $13,149.67 +$641.86
(+5.1%)
TRAIL_STOP
5.9d held
35 🟢 BUY Jun 27, 2025 1:45pm ET $69.76 188 $13,113.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2025 11:05am ET $68.40 188 $12,859.20 $12,894.93 $-254.74
(-1.9%)
TRAIL_STOP
3.9d held
36 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET $69.79 184 $12,841.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2025 9:45am ET $75.66 184 $13,921.44 $13,974.86 +$1,079.93
(+8.4%)
TRAIL_STOP
15d held
37 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2025 9:30am ET $76.46 182 $13,915.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2025 11:25am ET $74.68 182 $13,591.76 $13,650.90 $-323.96
(-2.3%)
TRAIL_STOP
5.1d held
38 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2025 2:55pm ET $75.02 181 $13,578.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET $71.79 181 $12,993.99 $13,066.72 $-584.18
(-4.3%)
TRAIL_STOP
1.8d held
39 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2025 9:30am ET $72.72 179 $13,016.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2025 9:55am ET $75.94 179 $13,592.37 $13,642.21 +$575.49
(+4.4%)
TRAIL_STOP
13d held
40 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2025 10:25am ET $75.64 180 $13,615.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2025 10:25am ET $71.62 180 $12,891.62 $12,918.62 $-723.58
(-5.3%)
TRAIL_STOP
1d held
41 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2025 9:30am ET $75.89 170 $12,901.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET $73.30 170 $12,461.00 $12,478.32 $-440.30
(-3.4%)
TRAIL_STOP
8d held
42 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2025 10:00am ET $74.06 168 $12,442.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET $80.97 168 $13,602.96 $13,639.20 +$1,160.88
(+9.3%)
TRAIL_STOP
21d held
43 🟢 BUY Sep 26, 2025 10:45am ET $81.61 167 $13,628.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET $89.22 167 $14,899.74 $14,910.07 +$1,270.87
(+9.3%)
TRAIL_STOP
14d held
44 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $84.83 175 $14,845.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 16, 2025 2:15pm ET $86.67 175 $15,167.25 $15,232.07 +$322.00
(+2.2%)
TRAIL_STOP
2.2d held
45 🟢 BUY Oct 21, 2025 9:30am ET $89.11 170 $15,148.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 22, 2025 10:20am ET $86.46 170 $14,697.35 $14,780.55 $-451.52
(-3.0%)
TRAIL_STOP
1d held
46 🟢 BUY Oct 28, 2025 9:30am ET $89.72 164 $14,714.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2025 11:45am ET $86.98 164 $14,264.72 $14,331.19 $-449.36
(-3.1%)
TRAIL_STOP
2.1d held
47 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET $84.66 169 $14,307.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 5, 2025 9:30am ET $83.24 169 $14,067.56 $14,091.21 $-239.98
(-1.7%)
TRAIL_STOP
1d held
48 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 9:30am ET $84.20 167 $14,061.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET $78.84 167 $13,166.28 $13,196.09 $-895.12
(-6.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
49 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 10:50am ET $82.44 160 $13,190.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET $79.86 160 $12,777.60 $12,783.29 $-412.80
(-3.1%)
TRAIL_STOP
2.9d held
50 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET $74.83 170 $12,721.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 2:00pm ET $75.29 170 $12,799.30 $12,861.49 +$78.20
(+0.6%)
TRAIL_STOP
3.2d held
51 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET $74.65 172 $12,839.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 11:40am ET $74.13 172 $12,750.36 $12,772.05 $-89.44
(-0.7%)
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held
52 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 9:40am ET $75.23 169 $12,713.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET $80.68 169 $13,634.92 $13,693.10 +$921.05
(+7.2%)
TRAIL_STOP
17.1d held
53 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 10:40am ET $80.36 170 $13,661.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 10:10am ET $79.14 170 $13,453.80 $13,485.70 $-207.40
(-1.5%)
TRAIL_STOP
9d held
54 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET $81.36 165 $13,424.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $79.66 165 $13,143.08 $13,204.38 $-281.33
(-2.1%)
TRAIL_STOP
13d held
55 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET $81.61 161 $13,139.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 2:25pm ET $78.91 161 $12,704.51 $12,769.68 $-434.70
(-3.3%)
TRAIL_STOP
5.2d held
56 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 2:30pm ET $77.07 165 $12,716.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 3:05pm ET $74.88 165 $12,355.20 $12,408.33 $-361.35
(-2.8%)
TRAIL_STOP
1d held
57 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET $73.03 169 $12,341.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:10pm ET $69.88 169 $11,809.72 $11,876.82 $-531.51
(-4.3%)
TRAIL_STOP
1d held
58 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET $71.68 165 $11,827.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:40am ET $69.08 165 $11,398.20 $11,447.82 $-429.00
(-3.6%)
TRAIL_STOP
1d held
59 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 2:25pm ET $70.31 162 $11,390.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET $66.06 162 $10,701.72 $10,759.32 $-688.50
(-6.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
41.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,759.32
Net Profit/Loss: +$759.32
Total Return: +7.59%
Back to Lucky Strike