IWM Lucky Strike's Analysis
to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 35 trades executed
+25.86%
2 Years Return
$12,735.75
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,118.60
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
41.2 neutral
20d Trend
-2.2%
5d Trend
-1.3%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
63%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
25
Lifetime
Confidence: 57%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
19.2/35
Total Return
12.1/25
Win Rate
4.3/15
Profit Factor
3.0/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality
43.9/100
× Confidence 0.57
= 25.2
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (57%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
86,234
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,118.60
Current Value
$12,735.75
Total P&L
$2,617.16
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.23
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
32
Winners / Losers
16 /
16
Best Trade
+8.98%
Worst Trade
-4.93%
Avg Trade Return
+0.87%
Avg Hold Time
15.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$765,388.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,617.16
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,617.16
Gross Return
+25.86%
Net Return (after fees)
+25.86%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 IWM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $10,118.60 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2024 9:30am ET | $198.22 | 49 | $9,712.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2024 9:30am ET | $201.94 | 49 | $9,895.06 | $10,076.46 |
+$182.28 (+1.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
35d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2024 9:30am ET | $203.21 | 49 | $9,957.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 14, 2024 9:30am ET | $199.65 | 49 | $9,782.85 | $9,902.02 |
$-174.44 (-1.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
10d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 20, 2024 9:30am ET | $200.22 | 49 | $9,810.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 18, 2024 2:25pm ET | $218.20 | 49 | $10,691.80 | $10,783.04 |
+$881.02 (+9.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
28.2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2024 9:30am ET | $221.89 | 48 | $10,650.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2024 10:25am ET | $220.07 | 48 | $10,563.36 | $10,695.92 |
$-87.12 (-0.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $196.96 | 54 | $10,635.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2024 12:30pm ET | $214.50 | 54 | $11,583.00 | $11,643.08 |
+$947.16 (+8.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
29.1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2024 9:30am ET | $206.42 | 56 | $11,559.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2024 10:10am ET | $216.62 | 56 | $12,130.44 | $12,214.00 |
+$570.92 (+4.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
20d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2024 9:30am ET | $216.51 | 56 | $12,124.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 23, 2024 11:25am ET | $219.11 | 56 | $12,270.16 | $12,359.60 |
+$145.60 (+1.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
20.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2024 9:30am ET | $220.17 | 56 | $12,329.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2024 10:15am ET | $233.76 | 56 | $13,090.56 | $13,120.64 |
+$761.04 (+6.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
16.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2024 9:30am ET | $227.25 | 57 | $12,953.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2024 10:00am ET | $236.23 | 57 | $13,465.11 | $13,632.31 |
+$511.67 (+4.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
23d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2024 9:30am ET | $232.96 | 58 | $13,511.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 2:55pm ET | $224.83 | 58 | $13,040.14 | $13,160.77 |
$-471.54 (-3.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.2d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 27, 2024 9:30am ET | $224.40 | 58 | $13,015.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $217.68 | 58 | $12,625.44 | $12,771.01 |
$-389.76 (-3.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
14d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $214.85 | 59 | $12,676.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $221.79 | 59 | $13,085.61 | $13,180.47 |
+$409.46 (+3.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
21d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $227.40 | 57 | $12,961.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 21, 2025 12:45pm ET | $219.98 | 57 | $12,538.86 | $12,757.53 |
$-422.94 (-3.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
14.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $215.19 | 59 | $12,696.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2025 2:55pm ET | $210.07 | 59 | $12,394.13 | $12,455.45 |
$-302.08 (-2.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 3:50pm ET | $206.67 | 60 | $12,400.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 1:35pm ET | $201.20 | 60 | $12,072.00 | $12,127.25 |
$-328.20 (-2.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2025 3:50pm ET | $201.57 | 60 | $12,094.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 28, 2025 10:15am ET | $201.74 | 60 | $12,104.40 | $12,137.45 |
+$10.20 (+0.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
16.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $197.89 | 61 | $12,071.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $194.93 | 61 | $11,890.43 | $11,956.59 |
$-180.86 (-1.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $182.93 | 65 | $11,890.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $174.87 | 65 | $11,366.55 | $11,432.69 |
$-523.90 (-4.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2025 11:10am ET | $181.96 | 62 | $11,281.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2025 11:10am ET | $172.99 | 62 | $10,725.38 | $10,876.55 |
$-556.14 (-4.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 11:55am ET | $179.76 | 60 | $10,785.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2025 11:45am ET | $181.89 | 60 | $10,913.10 | $11,004.05 |
+$127.50 (+1.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
11d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2025 1:10pm ET | $186.85 | 58 | $10,837.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $201.70 | 58 | $11,698.60 | $11,865.64 |
+$861.59 (+8.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
29.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $201.25 | 58 | $11,672.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $208.26 | 58 | $12,079.08 | $12,272.22 |
+$406.58 (+3.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
26d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $208.29 | 58 | $12,080.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2025 11:30am ET | $217.35 | 58 | $12,606.30 | $12,797.70 |
+$525.48 (+4.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
23.1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $225.46 | 56 | $12,625.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $215.43 | 56 | $12,064.08 | $12,236.02 |
$-561.68 (-4.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $228.69 | 53 | $12,120.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 9:35am ET | $238.06 | 53 | $12,617.18 | $12,732.63 |
+$496.61 (+4.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
42d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 10:55am ET | $244.01 | 52 | $12,688.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2025 9:40am ET | $243.52 | 52 | $12,663.04 | $12,707.15 |
$-25.48 (-0.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $246.34 | 51 | $12,563.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 10:25am ET | $242.68 | 51 | $12,376.68 | $12,520.49 |
$-186.66 (-1.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
13.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $237.97 | 52 | $12,374.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 1:25pm ET | $237.62 | 52 | $12,356.24 | $12,502.29 |
$-18.20 (-0.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6.2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $236.70 | 52 | $12,308.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 1:50pm ET | $230.44 | 52 | $11,982.88 | $12,176.77 |
$-325.52 (-2.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $245.88 | 49 | $12,048.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 12:55pm ET | $248.85 | 49 | $12,193.65 | $12,322.30 |
+$145.53 (+1.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
15.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $252.73 | 48 | $12,131.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $261.90 | 48 | $12,571.20 | $12,762.46 |
+$440.16 (+3.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
37d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $259.27 | 49 | $12,704.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 12:55pm ET | $258.73 | 49 | $12,677.77 | $12,735.75 |
$-26.70 (-0.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
7.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,735.75
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,735.75
Total Return:
+27.36%