Compendium › Lucky Strike › TLT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TLT
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

to 2026-05-06 14:00:00+00 • 23 trades executed

-9.27%
2 Years Return
$8,882.24
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$9,790.07
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:04:56

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 62%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 5.5/100
× Confidence 0.62 = 3.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (62%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
84,519
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,790.07
Current Value
$8,882.24
Total P&L
$-907.83
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.18

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
21
Winners / Losers
9 / 12
Best Trade
+3.54%
Worst Trade
-3.51%
Avg Trade Return
-0.39%
Avg Hold Time
27.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$389,847.37
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-907.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$-907.83
Gross Return
-9.27%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.27%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $9,790.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2024 9:30am ET $89.19 108 $9,632.52 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2024 9:40am ET $89.11 108 $9,623.88 $9,684.23 $-8.64
(-0.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
44d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 7, 2024 9:30am ET $91.62 105 $9,620.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2024 9:30am ET $90.45 105 $9,496.73 $9,560.86 $-123.38
(-1.3%) 		TRAIL_STOP
24d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2024 9:30am ET $93.11 102 $9,497.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2024 9:30am ET $96.07 102 $9,798.63 $9,862.27 +$301.41
(+3.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
23d held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 8, 2024 9:30am ET $95.18 103 $9,803.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2024 9:30am ET $98.55 103 $10,150.14 $10,209.38 +$347.11
(+3.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
46d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2024 9:30am ET $98.03 104 $10,194.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 4, 2024 9:30am ET $95.69 104 $9,951.76 $9,966.54 $-242.84
(-2.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
10d held
6 🟢 BUY Oct 7, 2024 9:30am ET $95.07 104 $9,887.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 22, 2024 11:20am ET $92.20 104 $9,588.80 $9,667.55 $-298.99
(-3.0%) 		TRAIL_STOP
15.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 29, 2024 9:30am ET $91.16 106 $9,662.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2024 9:30am ET $89.75 106 $9,513.50 $9,518.62 $-148.93
(-1.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
8d held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2024 9:30am ET $91.50 104 $9,516.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2024 10:00am ET $91.39 104 $9,504.04 $9,506.54 $-12.07
(-0.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
30d held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2024 9:30am ET $90.08 105 $9,457.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 24, 2024 9:30am ET $87.01 105 $9,136.06 $9,184.73 $-321.81
(-3.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
6d held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2025 9:30am ET $85.37 107 $9,134.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2025 10:10am ET $86.93 107 $9,300.98 $9,351.65 +$166.92
(+1.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
35d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2025 9:30am ET $88.50 105 $9,291.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 9:40am ET $89.43 105 $9,390.15 $9,449.82 +$98.18
(+1.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
23d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2025 9:30am ET $90.24 104 $9,384.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2025 9:30am ET $88.85 104 $9,240.40 $9,305.78 $-144.04
(-1.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
9d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $91.83 101 $9,274.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 1:40pm ET $88.75 101 $8,963.62 $8,994.57 $-311.21
(-3.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1.2d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 11, 2025 9:30am ET $85.72 104 $8,914.36 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2025 10:30am ET $87.02 104 $9,050.08 $9,130.29 +$135.72
(+1.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
24d held
15 🟢 BUY May 12, 2025 9:30am ET $86.48 105 $9,080.40 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2025 9:30am ET $83.44 105 $8,761.68 $8,811.58 $-318.72
(-3.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
10d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2025 9:30am ET $85.33 103 $8,788.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2025 10:15am ET $85.24 103 $8,779.21 $8,802.31 $-9.27
(-0.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
43d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2025 11:15am ET $84.64 103 $8,717.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET $85.62 103 $8,818.35 $8,902.73 +$100.42
(+1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
47.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 12, 2025 9:30am ET $89.70 99 $8,880.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 27, 2025 9:30am ET $91.29 99 $9,037.70 $9,060.13 +$157.40
(+1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
19 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2025 9:30am ET $90.45 100 $9,044.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 10:05am ET $87.76 100 $8,775.50 $8,790.87 $-269.26
(-3.0%) 		TRAIL_STOP
39.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 9:30am ET $87.44 100 $8,743.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET $88.32 100 $8,832.00 $8,879.21 +$88.34
(+1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $87.15 101 $8,802.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $87.18 101 $8,805.18 $8,882.24 +$3.03
(+0.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
46d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,882.24
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,117.76
Total Return: -11.18%
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