Compendium › Lucky Strike › AAPL
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AAPL
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 3 trades in period

+2.76%
Year to Date Return
$16,383.03
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$15,943.52
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:30:25

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
69.1 neutral
20d Trend
+5.2%
5d Trend
+6.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.1%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
69%
Bounce Ratio
8.0×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

39
Lifetime
Confidence: 60%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.1/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
4.6/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 64.0/100
× Confidence 0.60 = 38.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (60%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,282
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$15,943.52
Current Value
$16,383.03
Period P&L
$439.52
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.19

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+8.85%
Worst Trade
-3.42%
Avg Trade Return
+1.06%
Avg Hold Time
11.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$92,103.66
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$439.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$439.52
Gross Return
+2.76%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.76%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AAPL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $15,943.52 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:55am ET $270.65 58 $15,697.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 9:55am ET $261.40 58 $15,161.20 $15,407.01 $-536.50
(-3.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $258.03 59 $15,223.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:45am ET $252.21 59 $14,880.39 $15,063.63 $-343.38
(-2.3%) 		TRAIL_STOP
8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 9:45am ET $248.51 60 $14,910.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:05am ET $270.50 60 $16,230.00 $16,383.03 +$1,319.40
(+8.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
21d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,383.03
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,383.03
Total Return: +63.83%
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