Compendium › Lucky Strike › WMT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
WMT
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 3 trades in period

-6.63%
Year to Date Return
$17,709.49
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$18,967.54
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:03:33

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74 overbought
20d Trend
+6.1%
5d Trend
+7.2%
EMA20 Dist
+5.3%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
94%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

44
Lifetime
Confidence: 62%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.7/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
6.5/15
Consistency
7.4/10
Raw Quality 71.6/100
× Confidence 0.62 = 44.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (62%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,177
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$18,967.54
Current Value
$17,709.49
Period P&L
$-1,258.05
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.54

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+2.52%
Worst Trade
-7.39%
Avg Trade Return
-2.19%
Avg Hold Time
13.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$111,798.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,258.05
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,258.05
Gross Return
-6.63%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.63%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 WMT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $18,967.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:45am ET $112.34 168 $18,872.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET $110.44 168 $18,553.92 $18,649.18 $-318.36
(-1.7%) 		TRAIL_STOP
2d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 1:20pm ET $114.11 163 $18,599.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET $116.98 163 $19,067.74 $19,117.81 +$468.63
(+2.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
17.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 9:30am ET $132.34 144 $19,056.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $122.56 144 $17,648.64 $17,709.49 $-1,408.32
(-7.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $17,709.49
Net Profit/Loss: +$7,709.49
Total Return: +77.09%
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