Compendium › Lucky Strike › XLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 4 trades in period

-9.99%
Year to Date Return
$9,201.89
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$10,223.35
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:50:03

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 73%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality 3.5/100
× Confidence 0.73 = 2.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (73%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,436
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,223.35
Current Value
$9,201.89
Period P&L
$-1,021.49
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-1.27

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+0.25%
Worst Trade
-6.09%
Avg Trade Return
-2.88%
Avg Hold Time
17.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$79,197.46
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,021.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,021.49
Gross Return
-9.99%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.99%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $10,223.35 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET $145.68 71 $10,343.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 1:50pm ET $142.16 71 $10,093.66 $10,094.91 $-249.62
(-2.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
22.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET $144.06 70 $10,083.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:35am ET $144.41 70 $10,108.70 $10,119.76 +$24.85
(+0.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:40am ET $143.72 70 $10,060.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:55am ET $139.03 70 $9,732.10 $9,791.46 $-328.30
(-3.3%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 9:55am ET $142.39 68 $9,682.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 12:50pm ET $133.72 68 $9,092.95 $9,201.89 $-589.57
(-6.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
42.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,201.89
Net Profit/Loss: $-798.11
Total Return: -7.98%
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