MSFT Lucky Strike's Analysis
to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 39 trades executed
+3.00%
2 Years Return
$12,250.66
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$11,894.29
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026
21
Lifetime
Confidence: 56%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
15.8/35
Total Return
11.4/25
Win Rate
2.3/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality
37.2/100
× Confidence 0.56
= 20.9
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (56%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
70,072
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$11,894.29
Current Value
$12,250.66
Total P&L
$356.39
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
30
Winners / Losers
12 /
18
Best Trade
+20.12%
Worst Trade
-6.95%
Avg Trade Return
+0.48%
Avg Hold Time
13.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$796,314.70
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$356.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$356.39
Gross Return
+3.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.00%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $11,894.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2024 9:30am ET | $406.48 | 27 | $10,974.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2024 9:35am ET | $424.19 | 27 | $11,453.13 | $11,616.73 |
+$478.17 (+4.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
27d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2024 9:30am ET | $414.79 | 28 | $11,614.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2024 9:30am ET | $410.20 | 28 | $11,485.46 | $11,488.07 |
$-128.66 (-1.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
21d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2024 9:30am ET | $406.60 | 28 | $11,384.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 15, 2024 2:50pm ET | $413.92 | 28 | $11,589.62 | $11,692.86 |
+$204.79 (+1.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
11.2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2024 9:30am ET | $412.25 | 28 | $11,543.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 3:35pm ET | $439.77 | 28 | $12,313.56 | $12,463.42 |
+$770.56 (+6.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
29.3d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 20, 2024 9:30am ET | $429.78 | 28 | $12,033.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 27, 2024 10:30am ET | $427.70 | 28 | $11,975.73 | $12,405.31 |
$-58.11 (-0.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
7d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $421.82 | 29 | $12,232.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $424.66 | 29 | $12,315.14 | $12,487.67 |
+$82.36 (+0.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
17d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $442.83 | 28 | $12,399.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $416.60 | 28 | $11,664.80 | $11,753.36 |
$-734.30 (-5.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $412.94 | 28 | $11,562.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2025 9:35am ET | $401.95 | 28 | $11,254.60 | $11,445.78 |
$-307.58 (-2.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
21d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 10:15am ET | $398.40 | 28 | $11,155.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $387.03 | 28 | $10,836.84 | $11,127.42 |
$-318.36 (-2.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $383.19 | 29 | $11,112.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 7, 2025 11:30am ET | $387.12 | 29 | $11,226.48 | $11,241.53 |
+$114.12 (+1.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $386.22 | 29 | $11,200.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 28, 2025 11:20am ET | $381.66 | 29 | $11,068.14 | $11,109.29 |
$-132.24 (-1.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
10.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $372.41 | 29 | $10,799.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 12:30pm ET | $363.86 | 29 | $10,551.94 | $10,861.34 |
$-247.95 (-2.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 12:55pm ET | $352.52 | 30 | $10,575.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 1:05pm ET | $359.58 | 30 | $10,787.47 | $11,073.21 |
+$211.87 (+2.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 11:55am ET | $374.30 | 29 | $10,854.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2025 9:35am ET | $379.77 | 29 | $11,013.33 | $11,231.84 |
+$158.63 (+1.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $364.19 | 30 | $10,925.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $437.48 | 30 | $13,124.40 | $13,430.54 |
+$2,198.70 (+20.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $433.26 | 30 | $12,997.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $483.16 | 30 | $14,494.80 | $14,927.69 |
+$1,497.15 (+11.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $473.31 | 31 | $14,672.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 10:55am ET | $525.46 | 31 | $16,289.26 | $16,544.50 |
+$1,616.81 (+11.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
39.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 15, 2025 3:50pm ET | $520.25 | 31 | $16,127.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2025 9:55am ET | $503.20 | 31 | $15,599.20 | $16,016.10 |
$-528.40 (-3.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $501.75 | 31 | $15,554.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 3:35pm ET | $512.03 | 31 | $15,872.84 | $16,334.69 |
+$318.59 (+2.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
38.3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $507.74 | 32 | $16,247.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 9:55am ET | $527.88 | 32 | $16,892.16 | $16,979.17 |
+$644.48 (+4.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
16d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 9:55am ET | $519.24 | 32 | $16,615.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $503.47 | 32 | $16,110.88 | $16,474.37 |
$-504.80 (-3.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $496.48 | 33 | $16,383.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 9:55am ET | $493.99 | 33 | $16,301.67 | $16,392.20 |
$-82.17 (-0.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
11d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 9:45am ET | $476.17 | 34 | $16,189.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 9:45am ET | $475.71 | 34 | $16,173.97 | $16,376.39 |
$-15.81 (-0.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
12d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $480.70 | 34 | $16,343.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 1:10pm ET | $471.91 | 34 | $16,044.94 | $16,077.70 |
$-298.69 (-1.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
23.2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $480.91 | 33 | $15,870.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:30am ET | $464.00 | 33 | $15,312.00 | $15,519.55 |
$-558.16 (-3.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $451.40 | 34 | $15,347.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 1:00pm ET | $439.65 | 34 | $14,948.22 | $15,120.33 |
$-399.21 (-2.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $464.29 | 32 | $14,857.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $432.00 | 32 | $13,824.00 | $14,087.21 |
$-1,033.12 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $427.32 | 32 | $13,674.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $415.03 | 32 | $13,280.96 | $13,693.93 |
$-393.28 (-2.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 3:50pm ET | $413.65 | 33 | $13,650.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $393.70 | 33 | $12,992.10 | $13,035.58 |
$-658.35 (-4.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $409.70 | 31 | $12,700.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $384.38 | 31 | $11,915.78 | $12,250.66 |
$-784.92 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
37d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,250.66
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,250.66
Total Return:
+22.51%