Compendium › Lucky Strike › XLF
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLF
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 23 trades executed

+9.24%
2 Years Return
$11,054.95
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$10,120.15
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:45:09

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.4 neutral
20d Trend
-1.7%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
1.2%
Range Pos
44%
Bounce Ratio
1.3×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

14
Lifetime
Confidence: 53%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.4/35
Total Return
8.8/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 25.8/100
× Confidence 0.53 = 13.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (53%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
68,149
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
534 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,120.15
Current Value
$11,054.95
Total P&L
$934.80
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.13

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
21
Winners / Losers
10 / 11
Best Trade
+7.67%
Worst Trade
-4.73%
Avg Trade Return
+0.46%
Avg Hold Time
22.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$445,960.67
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$934.80
Net P&L (after fees)
$934.80
Gross Return
+9.24%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.24%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLF Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 534 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $10,120.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 25, 2024 9:30am ET $40.91 248 $10,144.44 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2024 9:30am ET $40.73 248 $10,101.04 $10,127.59 $-43.40
(-0.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
34d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2024 9:30am ET $41.20 245 $10,094.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 25, 2024 9:30am ET $42.73 245 $10,468.85 $10,502.44 +$374.85
(+3.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 2, 2024 9:30am ET $42.45 247 $10,485.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $40.77 247 $10,070.19 $10,087.48 $-414.96
(-4.0%) 		TRAIL_STOP
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2024 10:10am ET $44.31 227 $10,057.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 25, 2024 10:10am ET $47.17 227 $10,706.46 $10,736.70 +$649.22
(+6.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2024 9:30am ET $49.60 216 $10,713.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 3:45pm ET $49.78 216 $10,752.48 $10,775.58 +$38.88
(+0.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
20.3d held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2024 9:30am ET $49.16 219 $10,764.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 10, 2025 10:00am ET $47.46 219 $10,392.65 $10,403.28 $-372.30
(-3.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
24d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET $50.83 204 $10,369.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2025 11:30am ET $50.34 204 $10,268.34 $10,302.30 $-100.98
(-1.0%) 		TRAIL_STOP
22.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2025 9:30am ET $50.71 203 $10,294.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 7, 2025 9:35am ET $48.95 203 $9,936.85 $9,945.01 $-357.28
(-3.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
3d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2025 9:40am ET $47.58 209 $9,944.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 28, 2025 1:25pm ET $49.04 209 $10,249.36 $10,250.16 +$305.14
(+3.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
16.2d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET $48.45 211 $10,222.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET $46.16 211 $9,739.76 $9,766.96 $-483.19
(-4.7%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $42.63 229 $9,762.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 1:25pm ET $44.36 229 $10,158.83 $10,163.52 +$396.56
(+4.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1.2d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 11:55am ET $45.36 224 $10,160.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2025 10:00am ET $46.14 224 $10,334.84 $10,337.75 +$174.23
(+1.7%) 		TRAIL_STOP
10.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2025 9:30am ET $47.49 217 $10,305.33 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2025 9:30am ET $49.79 217 $10,803.35 $10,835.77 +$498.01
(+4.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
29d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2025 9:30am ET $50.64 213 $10,786.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2025 11:35am ET $51.38 213 $10,942.88 $10,992.32 +$156.56
(+1.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
44.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET $51.45 213 $10,958.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2025 9:30am ET $53.93 213 $11,486.03 $11,519.50 +$527.17
(+4.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2025 9:30am ET $53.75 214 $11,501.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 12:00pm ET $52.55 214 $11,245.70 $11,263.77 $-255.73
(-2.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
18.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 3:35pm ET $53.29 211 $11,244.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 16, 2025 2:10pm ET $51.79 211 $10,926.64 $10,946.21 $-317.56
(-2.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Oct 22, 2025 12:30pm ET $52.32 209 $10,934.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 11:15am ET $51.95 209 $10,857.55 $10,868.88 $-77.33
(-0.7%) 		TRAIL_STOP
26d held
19 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:55am ET $51.44 211 $10,852.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $55.38 211 $11,685.18 $11,701.28 +$832.40
(+7.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET $56.06 208 $11,659.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 12:05pm ET $54.25 208 $11,282.96 $11,324.80 $-376.48
(-3.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
6.1d held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $53.73 210 $11,282.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:45am ET $52.44 210 $11,012.40 $11,054.95 $-269.85
(-2.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
23.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,054.95
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,054.95
Total Return: +10.55%
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