XLK Lucky Strike's Analysis
to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 43 trades executed
-3.49%
2 Years Return
$9,201.89
Current Value
45%
Win Rate
$9,534.28
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 73%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality
3.5/100
× Confidence 0.73
= 2.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (73%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
56,850
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
525 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,534.28
Current Value
$9,201.89
Total P&L
$-332.42
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
38
Winners / Losers
17 /
21
Best Trade
+20.57%
Worst Trade
-6.09%
Avg Trade Return
+0.11%
Avg Hold Time
12.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$702,994.74
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-332.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$-332.42
Gross Return
-3.49%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.49%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 525 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $9,534.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 25, 2024 9:30am ET | $97.50 | 94 | $9,165.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 31, 2024 10:10am ET | $104.48 | 94 | $9,820.66 | $9,843.08 |
+$655.66 (+7.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
36d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2024 9:30am ET | $113.18 | 86 | $9,733.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2024 9:30am ET | $113.85 | 86 | $9,791.10 | $9,901.13 |
+$58.05 (+0.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
23d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2024 9:30am ET | $111.03 | 89 | $9,881.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 25, 2024 9:50am ET | $107.05 | 89 | $9,527.67 | $9,547.13 |
$-354.00 (-3.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2024 11:00am ET | $105.60 | 90 | $9,503.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2024 12:35pm ET | $106.20 | 90 | $9,558.00 | $9,601.58 |
+$54.45 (+0.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $96.38 | 99 | $9,541.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2024 2:10pm ET | $99.21 | 99 | $9,821.79 | $9,881.75 |
+$280.17 (+2.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 16, 2024 9:30am ET | $110.03 | 89 | $9,792.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2024 11:05am ET | $109.60 | 89 | $9,753.96 | $9,843.48 |
$-38.27 (-0.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
12.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 29, 2024 2:25pm ET | $109.63 | 89 | $9,757.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2024 10:55am ET | $106.48 | 89 | $9,476.72 | $9,563.13 |
$-280.35 (-2.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $104.41 | 91 | $9,501.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 6, 2024 10:50am ET | $101.96 | 91 | $9,277.91 | $9,339.50 |
$-223.63 (-2.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2024 9:30am ET | $108.98 | 85 | $9,262.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2024 11:05am ET | $109.78 | 85 | $9,331.09 | $9,407.71 |
+$68.21 (+0.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
15.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2024 9:30am ET | $114.56 | 82 | $9,393.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2024 9:30am ET | $112.78 | 82 | $9,247.96 | $9,262.16 |
$-145.55 (-1.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
21d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 15, 2024 9:30am ET | $115.66 | 80 | $9,252.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 3:35pm ET | $116.47 | 80 | $9,317.60 | $9,327.36 |
+$65.20 (+0.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
33.3d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 20, 2024 9:30am ET | $115.25 | 80 | $9,219.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2024 9:55am ET | $116.48 | 80 | $9,318.40 | $9,426.16 |
+$98.80 (+1.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
10d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $118.64 | 79 | $9,372.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 10, 2025 9:45am ET | $114.53 | 79 | $9,047.87 | $9,101.87 |
$-324.30 (-3.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $119.83 | 75 | $8,986.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $115.07 | 75 | $8,630.25 | $8,745.24 |
$-356.63 (-4.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $116.01 | 75 | $8,700.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $112.88 | 75 | $8,466.00 | $8,510.87 |
$-234.38 (-2.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2025 10:50am ET | $116.78 | 72 | $8,407.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2025 9:35am ET | $117.28 | 72 | $8,444.43 | $8,547.49 |
+$36.63 (+0.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
16.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2025 10:00am ET | $113.91 | 75 | $8,543.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2025 12:45pm ET | $110.72 | 75 | $8,303.63 | $8,307.87 |
$-239.63 (-2.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 3:00pm ET | $109.91 | 75 | $8,242.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 7, 2025 10:30am ET | $107.26 | 75 | $8,044.13 | $8,109.12 |
$-198.75 (-2.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2025 3:50pm ET | $104.71 | 77 | $8,062.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2025 9:35am ET | $105.27 | 77 | $8,105.41 | $8,152.24 |
+$43.12 (+0.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
15.7d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 28, 2025 10:05am ET | $104.65 | 77 | $8,058.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $100.71 | 77 | $7,754.29 | $7,848.47 |
$-303.77 (-3.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $100.24 | 78 | $7,818.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $94.57 | 78 | $7,376.46 | $7,406.60 |
$-441.87 (-5.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.64 | 84 | $7,361.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 12:35pm ET | $92.63 | 84 | $7,780.50 | $7,825.34 |
+$418.74 (+5.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 9:50am ET | $98.37 | 79 | $7,771.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2025 9:50am ET | $97.88 | 79 | $7,732.52 | $7,786.63 |
$-38.71 (-0.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $95.06 | 81 | $7,699.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $114.61 | 81 | $9,283.01 | $9,370.18 |
+$1,583.55 (+20.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $115.92 | 80 | $9,273.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $113.16 | 80 | $9,052.80 | $9,149.38 |
$-220.80 (-2.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2025 11:55am ET | $115.49 | 79 | $9,123.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $127.25 | 79 | $10,052.75 | $10,078.49 |
+$929.10 (+10.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
45.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2025 9:50am ET | $128.58 | 78 | $10,029.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 9:40am ET | $128.58 | 78 | $10,029.24 | $10,078.49 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
10d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $133.70 | 75 | $10,027.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 9:45am ET | $129.28 | 75 | $9,696.01 | $9,747.37 |
$-331.12 (-3.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $130.69 | 74 | $9,671.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $128.63 | 74 | $9,518.25 | $9,594.56 |
$-152.81 (-1.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2025 2:10pm ET | $134.74 | 71 | $9,566.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 3:10pm ET | $140.38 | 71 | $9,966.98 | $9,995.35 |
+$400.79 (+4.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
23d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $140.09 | 71 | $9,946.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 12:15pm ET | $147.56 | 71 | $10,476.41 | $10,525.37 |
+$530.02 (+5.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
21.2d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 10:35am ET | $145.05 | 72 | $10,443.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 1:30pm ET | $142.80 | 72 | $10,281.24 | $10,363.37 |
$-162.00 (-1.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
7.1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $143.25 | 72 | $10,313.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 10:00am ET | $138.61 | 72 | $9,979.56 | $10,029.29 |
$-334.08 (-3.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:50am ET | $139.40 | 71 | $9,897.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 11:00am ET | $143.84 | 71 | $10,212.64 | $10,344.53 |
+$315.24 (+3.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
22d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $145.68 | 71 | $10,343.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:50pm ET | $142.16 | 71 | $10,093.66 | $10,094.91 |
$-249.62 (-2.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
22.2d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $144.06 | 70 | $10,083.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:35am ET | $144.41 | 70 | $10,108.70 | $10,119.76 |
+$24.85 (+0.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $143.72 | 70 | $10,060.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:55am ET | $139.03 | 70 | $9,732.10 | $9,791.46 |
$-328.30 (-3.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $142.39 | 68 | $9,682.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:50pm ET | $133.72 | 68 | $9,092.95 | $9,201.89 |
$-589.57 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
42.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,201.89
Net Profit/Loss:
$-798.11
Total Return:
-7.98%