DKNG Trent Follower's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 38 trades in period
-14.87%
Last Year Return
$6,336.02
Current Value
32%
Win Rate
$7,442.85
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.5 oversold
20d Trend
-25.9%
5d Trend
-7.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
5.3%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.7/10
Raw Quality
2.7/100
× Confidence 0.97
= 2.7
30-Day Momentum
0
-3.4%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,584
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$7,442.85
Current Value
$6,336.02
Period P&L
$-1,106.87
Max Drawdown
-36.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
12 /
26
Best Trade
+9.90%
Worst Trade
-4.08%
Avg Trade Return
-0.40%
Avg Hold Time
4.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$497,896.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,106.87
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,106.87
Gross Return
-14.87%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.87%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 DKNG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $7,442.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 10:20am ET | $36.37 | 204 | $7,419.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 12:05pm ET | $35.62 | 204 | $7,266.46 | $7,289.86 |
$-153.02 (-2.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $34.54 | 211 | $7,287.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $34.41 | 211 | $7,260.51 | $7,262.43 |
$-27.43 (-0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $35.52 | 204 | $7,245.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 12:50pm ET | $35.16 | 204 | $7,172.64 | $7,190.01 |
$-72.42 (-1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 9:35am ET | $34.56 | 208 | $7,188.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 3:50pm ET | $34.75 | 208 | $7,226.96 | $7,228.49 |
+$38.48 (+0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $31.12 | 232 | $7,219.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 1:20pm ET | $30.80 | 232 | $7,145.60 | $7,154.25 |
$-74.24 (-1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 10:10am ET | $29.12 | 245 | $7,134.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 10:30am ET | $28.26 | 245 | $6,923.70 | $6,943.55 |
$-210.70 (-3.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
18m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:30am ET | $31.19 | 222 | $6,924.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 1:25pm ET | $30.96 | 222 | $6,872.01 | $6,891.38 |
$-52.17 (-0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.9h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 9:45am ET | $31.56 | 218 | $6,880.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 1:30pm ET | $31.33 | 218 | $6,828.85 | $6,840.19 |
$-51.19 (-0.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $30.32 | 225 | $6,822.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 2:55pm ET | $30.15 | 225 | $6,782.63 | $6,800.82 |
$-39.38 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.4h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $30.32 | 224 | $6,791.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 1:55pm ET | $30.96 | 224 | $6,935.04 | $6,944.18 |
+$143.36 (+2.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $36.20 | 191 | $6,914.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 11:20am ET | $35.34 | 191 | $6,748.99 | $6,778.96 |
$-165.22 (-2.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:20am ET | $35.78 | 189 | $6,762.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 12:10pm ET | $34.90 | 189 | $6,596.10 | $6,612.64 |
$-166.32 (-2.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 12:00pm ET | $36.17 | 182 | $6,582.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $35.91 | 182 | $6,535.62 | $6,565.32 |
$-47.32 (-0.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:40am ET | $35.70 | 183 | $6,533.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 2:05pm ET | $35.66 | 183 | $6,525.78 | $6,558.00 |
$-7.32 (-0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.00 | 234 | $6,553.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $27.31 | 234 | $6,389.37 | $6,394.20 |
$-163.80 (-2.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.60 | 240 | $6,384.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 1:10pm ET | $26.75 | 240 | $6,418.80 | $6,429.00 |
+$34.80 (+0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 12:10pm ET | $22.48 | 286 | $6,427.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 3:00pm ET | $22.24 | 286 | $6,359.24 | $6,360.39 |
$-68.61 (-1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 10:35am ET | $26.30 | 241 | $6,338.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 1:40pm ET | $26.14 | 241 | $6,298.54 | $6,320.63 |
$-39.76 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.24 | 250 | $6,310.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $24.21 | 250 | $6,052.50 | $6,063.13 |
$-257.50 (-4.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $22.32 | 271 | $6,048.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $22.30 | 271 | $6,041.95 | $6,056.36 |
$-6.77 (-0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.72 | 255 | $6,047.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 1:35pm ET | $23.66 | 255 | $6,033.30 | $6,042.33 |
$-14.03 (-0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.1h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.44 | 228 | $6,028.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 1:10pm ET | $25.93 | 228 | $5,913.18 | $5,927.19 |
$-115.14 (-1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 11:00am ET | $25.14 | 235 | $5,906.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 1:45pm ET | $24.91 | 235 | $5,852.68 | $5,873.14 |
$-54.05 (-0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $25.69 | 228 | $5,858.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $26.50 | 228 | $6,040.86 | $6,055.54 |
+$182.40 (+3.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $25.76 | 235 | $6,053.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $25.34 | 235 | $5,954.90 | $5,956.84 |
$-98.70 (-1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $26.41 | 225 | $5,941.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 1:10pm ET | $29.02 | 225 | $6,529.50 | $6,545.21 |
+$588.37 (+9.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $24.41 | 268 | $6,541.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 2:35pm ET | $24.44 | 268 | $6,549.92 | $6,553.25 |
+$8.04 (+0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $25.83 | 253 | $6,533.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 12:55pm ET | $25.85 | 253 | $6,541.31 | $6,560.84 |
+$7.59 (+0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.96 | 243 | $6,551.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $26.34 | 243 | $6,401.83 | $6,411.40 |
$-149.44 (-2.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.4h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $27.49 | 233 | $6,404.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 1:00pm ET | $26.92 | 233 | $6,272.36 | $6,279.50 |
$-131.90 (-2.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $23.90 | 262 | $6,261.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $24.30 | 262 | $6,366.60 | $6,384.30 |
+$104.80 (+1.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.35 | 285 | $6,369.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 1:20pm ET | $23.19 | 285 | $6,609.15 | $6,623.70 |
+$239.40 (+3.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 10:40am ET | $25.48 | 260 | $6,623.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 1:15pm ET | $25.06 | 260 | $6,515.60 | $6,515.80 |
$-107.90 (-1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.04 | 250 | $6,510.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $26.13 | 250 | $6,531.25 | $6,537.05 |
+$21.25 (+0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.6h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.69 | 254 | $6,525.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 2:45pm ET | $25.77 | 254 | $6,546.85 | $6,558.64 |
+$21.59 (+0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 1:10pm ET | $25.20 | 260 | $6,551.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 3:50pm ET | $25.27 | 260 | $6,571.50 | $6,578.40 |
+$19.76 (+0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.75 | 265 | $6,558.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 1:15pm ET | $24.38 | 265 | $6,460.70 | $6,480.35 |
$-98.05 (-1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $22.85 | 283 | $6,466.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 11:40am ET | $22.34 | 283 | $6,322.22 | $6,336.02 |
$-144.33 (-2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,336.02
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,663.98
Total Return:
-36.64%