RIVN Trent Follower's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 52 trades in period
+5.49%
Last Year Return
$18,773.55
Current Value
35%
Win Rate
$17,796.49
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
41
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
16.0/35
Total Return
16.2/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
2.8/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality
41.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 40.9
30-Day Momentum
2
-4.6%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9
Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-39 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
28,064
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$17,796.49
Current Value
$18,773.55
Period P&L
$977.08
Max Drawdown
-19.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
52
Winners / Losers
18 /
34
Best Trade
+15.64%
Worst Trade
-6.26%
Avg Trade Return
+0.18%
Avg Hold Time
8.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,053,183.23
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$977.08
Net P&L (after fees)
$977.08
Gross Return
+5.49%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.49%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 52 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $17,796.49 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 10:00am ET | $13.58 | 1,310 | $17,783.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 1:10pm ET | $13.36 | 1,310 | $17,495.05 | $17,508.27 |
$-288.20 (-1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 10:35am ET | $13.48 | 1,298 | $17,497.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 1:20pm ET | $13.32 | 1,298 | $17,282.87 | $17,294.10 |
$-214.17 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 9:50am ET | $13.84 | 1,250 | $17,293.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 1:25pm ET | $13.72 | 1,250 | $17,143.75 | $17,144.10 |
$-150.00 (-0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $13.30 | 1,289 | $17,143.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 12:45pm ET | $15.38 | 1,289 | $19,824.69 | $19,825.09 |
+$2,680.99 (+15.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 2:40pm ET | $15.41 | 1,286 | $19,810.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $14.44 | 1,286 | $18,569.84 | $18,584.10 |
$-1,240.99 (-6.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
18.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.41 | 1,206 | $18,578.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 3:30pm ET | $16.29 | 1,206 | $19,650.08 | $19,655.75 |
+$1,071.65 (+5.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
6h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 3:35pm ET | $18.05 | 1,089 | $19,652.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $17.40 | 1,089 | $18,943.16 | $18,946.05 |
$-709.70 (-3.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
17.9h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.52 | 1,221 | $18,943.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:55am ET | $15.08 | 1,221 | $18,406.58 | $18,408.81 |
$-537.24 (-2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 9:40am ET | $16.81 | 1,095 | $18,401.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 2:20pm ET | $17.38 | 1,095 | $19,025.63 | $19,032.96 |
+$624.15 (+3.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 3:10pm ET | $17.79 | 1,070 | $19,029.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 11:00am ET | $17.45 | 1,070 | $18,666.15 | $18,669.16 |
$-363.80 (-1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
19.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 9:45am ET | $18.19 | 1,026 | $18,662.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 1:25pm ET | $18.06 | 1,026 | $18,524.43 | $18,531.57 |
$-137.59 (-0.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.7h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $17.33 | 1,069 | $18,525.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 1:20pm ET | $18.82 | 1,069 | $20,118.58 | $20,124.38 |
+$1,592.81 (+8.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $18.69 | 1,076 | $20,110.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 10:15am ET | $21.56 | 1,076 | $23,202.54 | $23,216.48 |
+$3,092.10 (+15.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $20.39 | 1,138 | $23,199.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $19.73 | 1,138 | $22,452.74 | $22,469.50 |
$-746.98 (-3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
48m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 12:25pm ET | $20.14 | 1,115 | $22,450.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $20.08 | 1,115 | $22,383.63 | $22,402.60 |
$-66.90 (-0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $16.87 | 1,327 | $22,386.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 12:15pm ET | $16.65 | 1,327 | $22,087.92 | $22,104.03 |
$-298.58 (-1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:15am ET | $14.45 | 1,529 | $22,101.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.48 | 1,529 | $22,139.92 | $22,142.25 |
+$38.22 (+0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:05am ET | $15.45 | 1,432 | $22,131.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $15.32 | 1,432 | $21,938.38 | $21,949.07 |
$-193.18 (-0.9%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 12:05pm ET | $15.52 | 1,414 | $21,945.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:15pm ET | $15.23 | 1,414 | $21,528.15 | $21,532.22 |
$-416.85 (-1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.2h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.44 | 1,394 | $21,520.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $15.38 | 1,394 | $21,439.72 | $21,450.95 |
$-81.27 (-0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.71 | 1,283 | $21,438.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 1:10pm ET | $16.89 | 1,283 | $21,663.46 | $21,675.48 |
+$224.53 (+1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.7h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $15.84 | 1,368 | $21,669.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 2:50pm ET | $15.81 | 1,368 | $21,628.22 | $21,634.58 |
$-40.90 (-0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.53 | 1,308 | $21,621.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 11:25am ET | $15.95 | 1,308 | $20,869.14 | $20,882.48 |
$-752.10 (-3.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.9h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $15.63 | 1,336 | $20,881.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 1:10pm ET | $15.76 | 1,336 | $21,055.49 | $21,056.29 |
+$173.81 (+0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.33 | 1,289 | $21,042.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:00am ET | $15.86 | 1,289 | $20,443.41 | $20,456.78 |
$-599.51 (-2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.57 | 1,313 | $20,443.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:50am ET | $15.10 | 1,313 | $19,819.74 | $19,833.11 |
$-623.67 (-3.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.39 | 1,288 | $19,822.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:20pm ET | $15.18 | 1,288 | $19,551.84 | $19,562.63 |
$-270.48 (-1.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.47 | 1,187 | $19,549.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 10:15am ET | $15.89 | 1,187 | $18,855.50 | $18,868.24 |
$-694.39 (-3.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
45m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $17.59 | 1,072 | $18,856.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $17.40 | 1,072 | $18,647.44 | $18,659.20 |
$-209.04 (-1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 12:00pm ET | $17.92 | 1,041 | $18,654.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 2:35pm ET | $17.69 | 1,041 | $18,415.19 | $18,419.67 |
$-239.53 (-1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 11:20am ET | $14.54 | 1,266 | $18,407.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 2:00pm ET | $14.38 | 1,266 | $18,205.21 | $18,217.24 |
$-202.43 (-1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.7h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $13.52 | 1,347 | $18,204.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 10:15am ET | $14.11 | 1,347 | $19,012.90 | $19,025.44 |
+$808.20 (+4.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 11:45am ET | $15.73 | 1,209 | $19,023.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 3:15pm ET | $16.14 | 1,209 | $19,507.22 | $19,509.04 |
+$483.60 (+2.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $17.56 | 1,111 | $19,503.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 12:35pm ET | $17.16 | 1,111 | $19,064.76 | $19,070.19 |
$-438.85 (-2.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 10:00am ET | $17.12 | 1,113 | $19,054.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 1:35pm ET | $17.30 | 1,113 | $19,254.90 | $19,270.53 |
+$200.34 (+1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.03 | 1,202 | $19,268.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 11:45am ET | $15.61 | 1,202 | $18,769.23 | $18,771.58 |
$-498.95 (-2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $16.46 | 1,140 | $18,764.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:25pm ET | $16.55 | 1,140 | $18,867.00 | $18,874.18 |
+$102.60 (+0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.09 | 1,251 | $18,871.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 2:45pm ET | $15.44 | 1,251 | $19,309.19 | $19,312.03 |
+$437.85 (+2.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
5h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 10:25am ET | $17.36 | 1,112 | $19,309.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 2:30pm ET | $17.15 | 1,112 | $19,070.80 | $19,072.95 |
$-239.08 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.1h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.08 | 1,054 | $19,061.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 12:50pm ET | $18.66 | 1,054 | $19,664.58 | $19,675.95 |
+$603.00 (+3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $17.17 | 1,145 | $19,659.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 3:50pm ET | $18.00 | 1,145 | $20,604.28 | $20,620.58 |
+$944.63 (+4.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.2h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.12 | 1,138 | $20,620.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 12:10pm ET | $17.92 | 1,138 | $20,392.96 | $20,392.98 |
$-227.60 (-1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.7h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.93 | 1,137 | $20,386.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $17.41 | 1,137 | $19,789.49 | $19,796.05 |
$-596.92 (-2.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
40m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.42 | 1,205 | $19,786.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $16.64 | 1,205 | $20,045.18 | $20,055.13 |
+$259.08 (+1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.6h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.04 | 1,176 | $20,039.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:45am ET | $16.46 | 1,176 | $19,356.96 | $19,373.05 |
$-682.08 (-3.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
15m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 10:55am ET | $15.36 | 1,260 | $19,359.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 1:40pm ET | $15.27 | 1,260 | $19,246.50 | $19,259.65 |
$-113.40 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $16.47 | 1,169 | $19,253.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 1:55pm ET | $16.83 | 1,169 | $19,668.43 | $19,674.65 |
+$415.00 (+2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.73 | 1,176 | $19,674.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 1:25pm ET | $16.68 | 1,176 | $19,621.56 | $19,621.73 |
$-52.92 (-0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.03 | 1,224 | $19,620.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 1:20pm ET | $15.86 | 1,224 | $19,418.76 | $19,419.77 |
$-201.96 (-1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $16.74 | 1,160 | $19,418.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 10:40am ET | $16.16 | 1,160 | $18,739.80 | $18,741.05 |
$-678.72 (-3.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
40m held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.63 | 1,199 | $18,740.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $15.80 | 1,199 | $18,938.21 | $18,938.88 |
+$197.83 (+1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.60 | 1,213 | $18,924.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 2:10pm ET | $15.47 | 1,213 | $18,759.05 | $18,773.55 |
$-165.33 (-0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.6h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$18,773.55
Net Profit/Loss:
+$8,773.55
Total Return:
+87.74%