TQQQ Trent Follower's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 38 trades in period
+21.25%
Last Year Return
$12,351.57
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$10,186.51
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
26
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.8/35
Total Return
11.5/25
Win Rate
5.2/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
26.5/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 26.0
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,890
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$10,186.51
Current Value
$12,351.57
Period P&L
$2,165.03
Max Drawdown
-29.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.17
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
21 /
17
Best Trade
+10.59%
Worst Trade
-8.04%
Avg Trade Return
+0.57%
Avg Hold Time
15.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$860,097.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,165.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,165.03
Gross Return
+21.25%
Net Return (after fees)
+21.25%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $10,186.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 10:25am ET | $53.82 | 189 | $10,172.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 2:45pm ET | $54.04 | 189 | $10,213.56 | $10,227.46 |
+$40.92 (+0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $57.30 | 178 | $10,199.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 11:40am ET | $60.05 | 178 | $10,689.77 | $10,717.44 |
+$489.98 (+4.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 2:55pm ET | $52.56 | 203 | $10,668.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $55.71 | 203 | $11,309.13 | $11,357.90 |
+$640.47 (+6.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $52.82 | 215 | $11,356.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:25am ET | $51.12 | 215 | $10,990.78 | $10,992.40 |
$-365.50 (-3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.9h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 1:45pm ET | $48.60 | 226 | $10,982.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 3:40pm ET | $47.91 | 226 | $10,827.64 | $10,837.57 |
$-154.83 (-1.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.9h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $51.62 | 209 | $10,788.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 12:20pm ET | $51.22 | 209 | $10,703.94 | $10,752.93 |
$-84.64 (-0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.43 | 193 | $10,697.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 1:45pm ET | $55.46 | 193 | $10,702.82 | $10,757.75 |
+$4.82 (+0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $52.81 | 203 | $10,720.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:50am ET | $51.49 | 203 | $10,453.40 | $10,490.73 |
$-267.03 (-2.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $50.31 | 208 | $10,464.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 12:20pm ET | $49.22 | 208 | $10,237.70 | $10,263.95 |
$-226.78 (-2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.4h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $51.51 | 199 | $10,249.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.20 | 199 | $10,188.80 | $10,203.25 |
$-60.70 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
23.7h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 10:25am ET | $49.99 | 204 | $10,197.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $50.42 | 204 | $10,284.97 | $10,290.26 |
+$87.01 (+0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $49.03 | 209 | $10,246.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $49.77 | 209 | $10,401.93 | $10,445.96 |
+$155.70 (+1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
22.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $47.72 | 218 | $10,402.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $47.56 | 218 | $10,366.99 | $10,409.99 |
$-35.97 (-0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $45.06 | 231 | $10,408.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 12:00pm ET | $44.55 | 231 | $10,291.05 | $10,292.18 |
$-117.81 (-1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $39.38 | 261 | $10,276.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $43.54 | 261 | $11,365.24 | $11,380.55 |
+$1,088.37 (+10.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.75 | 233 | $11,358.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:20pm ET | $47.91 | 233 | $11,163.01 | $11,184.81 |
$-195.74 (-1.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.65 | 216 | $11,155.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 12:55pm ET | $54.13 | 216 | $11,693.16 | $11,722.65 |
+$537.84 (+4.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $58.26 | 201 | $11,709.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $58.29 | 201 | $11,717.29 | $11,730.69 |
+$8.04 (+0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $61.36 | 191 | $11,719.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $62.15 | 191 | $11,871.60 | $11,882.53 |
+$151.84 (+1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $65.25 | 182 | $11,874.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:15pm ET | $65.38 | 182 | $11,899.16 | $11,907.10 |
+$24.57 (+0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $66.83 | 178 | $11,895.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $67.44 | 178 | $12,004.34 | $12,015.70 |
+$108.60 (+0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $73.92 | 162 | $11,974.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 10:30am ET | $75.98 | 162 | $12,308.76 | $12,350.23 |
+$334.53 (+2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.68 | 163 | $12,335.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $77.18 | 163 | $12,581.15 | $12,595.54 |
+$245.31 (+2.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $79.01 | 159 | $12,563.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 2:15pm ET | $78.67 | 159 | $12,507.74 | $12,539.89 |
$-55.65 (-0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:00am ET | $77.95 | 160 | $12,471.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 1:10pm ET | $76.84 | 160 | $12,294.40 | $12,362.72 |
$-177.17 (-1.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 3:05pm ET | $73.83 | 167 | $12,329.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 11:00am ET | $71.63 | 167 | $11,962.21 | $11,995.34 |
$-367.38 (-3.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
19.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET | $73.94 | 162 | $11,979.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 12:00pm ET | $75.89 | 162 | $12,294.18 | $12,310.43 |
+$315.09 (+2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
22.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $84.79 | 145 | $12,294.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 2:30pm ET | $84.49 | 145 | $12,251.05 | $12,266.77 |
$-43.66 (-0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.5h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.02 | 157 | $12,249.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $71.75 | 157 | $11,263.97 | $11,281.60 |
$-985.17 (-8.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
25m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $79.72 | 141 | $11,240.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $80.96 | 141 | $11,415.36 | $11,456.44 |
+$174.84 (+1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
6h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.15 | 152 | $11,422.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $76.68 | 152 | $11,655.45 | $11,689.09 |
+$232.65 (+2.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.74 | 156 | $11,659.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 3:05pm ET | $76.14 | 156 | $11,877.86 | $11,907.51 |
+$218.42 (+1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 2:40pm ET | $61.90 | 192 | $11,884.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:30pm ET | $59.53 | 192 | $11,430.72 | $11,453.43 |
$-454.08 (-3.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
50m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $65.56 | 174 | $11,407.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $62.60 | 174 | $10,892.40 | $10,938.39 |
$-515.04 (-4.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
40m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.34 | 155 | $10,903.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $74.92 | 155 | $11,611.83 | $11,647.20 |
+$708.81 (+6.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.60 | 154 | $11,642.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 3:15pm ET | $74.88 | 154 | $11,530.90 | $11,535.70 |
$-111.50 (-1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.16 | 162 | $11,527.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 2:35pm ET | $71.21 | 162 | $11,536.83 | $11,544.61 |
+$8.91 (+0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.1h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.89 | 154 | $11,533.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $80.13 | 154 | $12,340.02 | $12,351.57 |
+$806.96 (+7.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,351.57
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,351.57
Total Return:
+23.52%