TSLA Trent Follower's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 33 trades in period
-6.55%
Last Year Return
$14,368.86
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$15,375.69
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
32
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
10.1/35
Total Return
13.7/25
Win Rate
1.4/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality
32.6/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 32.4
30-Day Momentum
14
+2.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.7
Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
30,012
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$15,375.69
Current Value
$14,368.86
Period P&L
$-1,006.82
Max Drawdown
-15.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
11 /
22
Best Trade
+7.16%
Worst Trade
-4.88%
Avg Trade Return
-0.19%
Avg Hold Time
8.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$934,943.60
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,006.82
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,006.82
Gross Return
-6.55%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.55%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $15,375.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $449.22 | 34 | $15,273.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 11:30am ET | $440.76 | 34 | $14,985.84 | $15,088.05 |
$-287.64 (-1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:55am ET | $458.68 | 32 | $14,677.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 9:40am ET | $454.74 | 32 | $14,551.68 | $14,961.97 |
$-126.08 (-0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
22.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $445.47 | 33 | $14,700.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $447.67 | 33 | $14,773.02 | $15,034.48 |
+$72.51 (+0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 12:55pm ET | $445.03 | 33 | $14,686.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 9:35am ET | $443.40 | 33 | $14,632.20 | $14,980.59 |
$-53.88 (-0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
20.7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 11:15am ET | $453.53 | 33 | $14,966.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 2:50pm ET | $455.64 | 33 | $15,036.12 | $15,050.39 |
+$69.80 (+0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 9:45am ET | $468.05 | 32 | $14,977.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 1:30pm ET | $468.00 | 32 | $14,975.99 | $15,048.72 |
$-1.67 (-0.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $419.17 | 35 | $14,670.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:50am ET | $411.73 | 35 | $14,410.38 | $14,788.14 |
$-260.58 (-1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 9:55am ET | $411.79 | 35 | $14,412.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 2:30pm ET | $418.23 | 35 | $14,638.05 | $15,013.55 |
+$225.41 (+1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $441.40 | 34 | $15,007.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 11:00am ET | $447.38 | 34 | $15,210.87 | $15,216.83 |
+$203.27 (+1.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 9:50am ET | $461.87 | 32 | $14,779.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET | $448.08 | 32 | $14,338.40 | $14,775.24 |
$-441.59 (-3.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:55am ET | $478.59 | 30 | $14,357.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 1:25pm ET | $475.70 | 30 | $14,271.00 | $14,688.54 |
$-86.70 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.5h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 11:05am ET | $489.13 | 30 | $14,673.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 2:00pm ET | $486.09 | 30 | $14,582.70 | $14,597.34 |
$-91.20 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.9h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 9:45am ET | $497.79 | 29 | $14,435.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 2:25pm ET | $493.08 | 29 | $14,299.32 | $14,460.80 |
$-136.53 (-0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.7h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $455.43 | 31 | $14,118.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 2:35pm ET | $454.71 | 31 | $14,096.13 | $14,438.53 |
$-22.27 (-0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET | $436.35 | 33 | $14,399.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:30pm ET | $432.76 | 33 | $14,281.08 | $14,320.06 |
$-118.47 (-0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $407.35 | 35 | $14,257.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $404.94 | 35 | $14,172.90 | $14,235.71 |
$-84.35 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $363.84 | 39 | $14,189.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 11:30am ET | $346.08 | 39 | $13,496.93 | $13,542.88 |
$-692.83 (-4.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
2h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:35am ET | $377.88 | 35 | $13,225.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $386.14 | 35 | $13,514.90 | $13,831.98 |
+$289.10 (+2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
23h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $405.01 | 34 | $13,770.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $402.19 | 34 | $13,674.46 | $13,736.10 |
$-95.88 (-0.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.5h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $413.73 | 33 | $13,653.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET | $406.46 | 33 | $13,413.10 | $13,496.11 |
$-239.99 (-1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.4h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 11:40am ET | $440.33 | 30 | $13,209.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $439.33 | 30 | $13,179.90 | $13,466.11 |
$-30.00 (-0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
21.9h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $446.20 | 30 | $13,386.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 2:00pm ET | $447.23 | 30 | $13,416.90 | $13,496.86 |
+$30.75 (+0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $412.36 | 32 | $13,195.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 12:50pm ET | $408.31 | 32 | $13,065.88 | $13,367.22 |
$-129.64 (-1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 10:05am ET | $411.09 | 32 | $13,154.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 1:30pm ET | $407.15 | 32 | $13,028.80 | $13,241.14 |
$-126.08 (-1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:30am ET | $397.70 | 33 | $13,124.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 12:50pm ET | $426.16 | 33 | $14,063.28 | $14,180.32 |
+$939.18 (+7.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $408.23 | 34 | $13,879.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $415.66 | 34 | $14,132.44 | $14,432.77 |
+$252.45 (+1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
22.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 11:30am ET | $333.13 | 43 | $14,324.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 1:05pm ET | $327.52 | 43 | $14,083.36 | $14,191.43 |
$-241.34 (-1.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $348.77 | 40 | $13,950.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 11:05am ET | $340.26 | 40 | $13,610.20 | $13,850.83 |
$-340.60 (-2.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $357.03 | 38 | $13,567.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 3:50pm ET | $363.05 | 38 | $13,795.90 | $14,079.50 |
+$228.67 (+1.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:45am ET | $359.42 | 39 | $14,017.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 2:35pm ET | $365.60 | 39 | $14,258.40 | $14,320.52 |
+$241.02 (+1.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $370.82 | 38 | $14,091.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 2:35pm ET | $381.57 | 38 | $14,499.66 | $14,729.02 |
+$408.50 (+2.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $373.35 | 39 | $14,560.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 1:05pm ET | $366.59 | 39 | $14,297.01 | $14,465.38 |
$-263.64 (-1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.9h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $375.74 | 38 | $14,278.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 1:10pm ET | $373.20 | 38 | $14,181.60 | $14,368.86 |
$-96.52 (-0.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,368.86
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,368.86
Total Return:
+43.69%