Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:01:29

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

32
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
10.1/35
Total Return
13.7/25
Win Rate
1.4/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 32.6/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 32.4

30-Day Momentum

14
+2.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.7 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,241.15
Current Value
$14,368.86
Period P&L
$1,127.72
Max Drawdown
-15.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.34

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
5 / 4
Best Trade
+7.16%
Worst Trade
-2.44%
Avg Trade Return
+0.96%
Avg Hold Time
10.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$252,715.98
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,127.72
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,127.72
Gross Return
+8.52%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.52%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $13,241.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:30am ET $397.70 33 $13,124.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 12:50pm ET $426.16 33 $14,063.28 $14,180.32 +$939.18
(+7.2%)
TREND_BREAK
2.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 11:00am ET $408.23 34 $13,879.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $415.66 34 $14,132.44 $14,432.77 +$252.45
(+1.8%)
TREND_BREAK
22.5h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 11:30am ET $333.13 43 $14,324.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 1:05pm ET $327.52 43 $14,083.36 $14,191.43 $-241.34
(-1.7%)
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 9:50am ET $348.77 40 $13,950.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 11:05am ET $340.26 40 $13,610.20 $13,850.83 $-340.60
(-2.4%)
TREND_BREAK
1.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:05am ET $357.03 38 $13,567.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 3:50pm ET $363.05 38 $13,795.90 $14,079.50 +$228.67
(+1.7%)
TREND_BREAK
5.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:45am ET $359.42 39 $14,017.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 2:35pm ET $365.60 39 $14,258.40 $14,320.52 +$241.02
(+1.7%)
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $370.82 38 $14,091.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 2:35pm ET $381.57 38 $14,499.66 $14,729.02 +$408.50
(+2.9%)
TREND_BREAK
5.1h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 10:10am ET $373.35 39 $14,560.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 1:05pm ET $366.59 39 $14,297.01 $14,465.38 $-263.64
(-1.8%)
TREND_BREAK
2.9h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET $375.74 38 $14,278.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 1:10pm ET $373.20 38 $14,181.60 $14,368.86 $-96.52
(-0.7%)
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,368.86
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,368.86
Total Return: +43.69%
Back to Trent Follower