Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:37:22

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 78%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.8/35
Total Return
11.3/25
Win Rate
1.6/15
Profit Factor
5.1/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 31.6/100
× Confidence 0.78 = 24.6

30-Day Momentum

48
+14.1%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
4.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 77.6 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+23 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (78%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,167
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
126 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,407.77
Current Value
$12,216.55
Period P&L
$2,808.81
Max Drawdown
-9.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.53

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
7 / 4
Best Trade
+15.02%
Worst Trade
-2.28%
Avg Trade Return
+2.52%
Avg Hold Time
19.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$223,188.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,808.81
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,808.81
Gross Return
+29.86%
Net Return (after fees)
+29.86%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 126 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $9,407.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 11:00am ET $157.57 59 $9,296.63
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 1:05pm ET $153.97 59 $9,084.23 $9,195.34 $-212.40
(-2.3%)
TREND_BREAK
2.1h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET $149.27 61 $9,105.47
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 1:15pm ET $148.39 61 $9,051.79 $9,141.66 $-53.68
(-0.6%)
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $151.53 60 $9,091.80
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 1:25pm ET $156.53 60 $9,391.80 $9,441.66 +$300.00
(+3.3%)
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 3:15pm ET $167.74 56 $9,393.44
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 12:15pm ET $171.79 56 $9,620.52 $9,668.74 +$227.08
(+2.4%)
TREND_BREAK
21h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:55am ET $175.35 55 $9,644.52
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 1:10pm ET $174.83 55 $9,615.66 $9,639.87 $-28.87
(-0.3%)
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held
6 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:30am ET $191.08 50 $9,554.00
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 12:55pm ET $194.12 50 $9,706.00 $9,791.87 +$152.00
(+1.6%)
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held
7 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 9:55am ET $230.50 42 $9,681.00
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 1:25pm ET $233.82 42 $9,820.44 $9,931.31 +$139.44
(+1.4%)
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held
8 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:45am ET $268.10 37 $9,919.70
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $288.97 37 $10,691.89 $10,703.50 +$772.19
(+7.8%)
TREND_BREAK
4d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $310.98 34 $10,573.49
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 11:55am ET $357.70 34 $12,161.80 $12,291.81 +$1,588.31
(+15.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:55am ET $362.67 33 $11,968.11
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 12:10pm ET $357.21 33 $11,788.09 $12,111.79 $-180.02
(-1.5%)
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 10:25am ET $332.27 36 $11,961.72
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 10:15am ET $335.18 36 $12,066.48 $12,216.55 +$104.76
(+0.9%)
TREND_BREAK
23.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,216.55
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,216.55
Total Return: +22.17%
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