Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:48:34

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

41
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
16.0/35
Total Return
16.2/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
2.8/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 41.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 40.9

30-Day Momentum

2
-4.6%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-39 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$21,056.30
Current Value
$18,773.55
Period P&L
$-2,282.73
Max Drawdown
-19.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
10 / 18
Best Trade
+4.80%
Worst Trade
-3.55%
Avg Trade Return
-0.38%
Avg Hold Time
4.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,084,362.85
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,282.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,282.73
Gross Return
-10.84%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.84%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $21,056.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $16.33 1,289 $21,042.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 11:00am ET $15.86 1,289 $20,443.41 $20,456.78 $-599.51
(-2.8%)
TREND_BREAK
1.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $15.57 1,313 $20,443.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 10:50am ET $15.10 1,313 $19,819.74 $19,833.11 $-623.67
(-3.1%)
TREND_BREAK
1.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $15.39 1,288 $19,822.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 2:20pm ET $15.18 1,288 $19,551.84 $19,562.63 $-270.48
(-1.4%)
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $16.47 1,187 $19,549.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 10:15am ET $15.89 1,187 $18,855.50 $18,868.24 $-694.39
(-3.6%)
TREND_BREAK
45m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 10:40am ET $17.59 1,072 $18,856.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 1:15pm ET $17.40 1,072 $18,647.44 $18,659.20 $-209.04
(-1.1%)
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 12:00pm ET $17.92 1,041 $18,654.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 2:35pm ET $17.69 1,041 $18,415.19 $18,419.67 $-239.53
(-1.3%)
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held
7 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 11:20am ET $14.54 1,266 $18,407.64 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 2:00pm ET $14.38 1,266 $18,205.21 $18,217.24 $-202.43
(-1.1%)
TREND_BREAK
2.7h held
8 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 12:10pm ET $13.52 1,347 $18,204.71 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 10:15am ET $14.11 1,347 $19,012.90 $19,025.44 +$808.20
(+4.4%)
TREND_BREAK
1.9d held
9 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 11:45am ET $15.73 1,209 $19,023.61 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 3:15pm ET $16.14 1,209 $19,507.22 $19,509.04 +$483.60
(+2.5%)
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 10:45am ET $17.56 1,111 $19,503.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 12:35pm ET $17.16 1,111 $19,064.76 $19,070.19 $-438.85
(-2.3%)
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 10:00am ET $17.12 1,113 $19,054.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 1:35pm ET $17.30 1,113 $19,254.90 $19,270.53 +$200.34
(+1.1%)
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:35am ET $16.03 1,202 $19,268.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 11:45am ET $15.61 1,202 $18,769.23 $18,771.58 $-498.95
(-2.6%)
TREND_BREAK
2.2h held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 9:40am ET $16.46 1,140 $18,764.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:25pm ET $16.55 1,140 $18,867.00 $18,874.18 +$102.60
(+0.5%)
TREND_BREAK
5.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 9:45am ET $15.09 1,251 $18,871.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 2:45pm ET $15.44 1,251 $19,309.19 $19,312.03 +$437.85
(+2.3%)
TREND_BREAK
5h held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 10:25am ET $17.36 1,112 $19,309.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 2:30pm ET $17.15 1,112 $19,070.80 $19,072.95 $-239.08
(-1.2%)
TREND_BREAK
4.1h held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $18.08 1,054 $19,061.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 12:50pm ET $18.66 1,054 $19,664.58 $19,675.95 +$603.00
(+3.2%)
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:40am ET $17.17 1,145 $19,659.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 3:50pm ET $18.00 1,145 $20,604.28 $20,620.58 +$944.63
(+4.8%)
TREND_BREAK
6.2h held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $18.12 1,138 $20,620.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:10pm ET $17.92 1,138 $20,392.96 $20,392.98 $-227.60
(-1.1%)
TREND_BREAK
2.7h held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:35am ET $17.93 1,137 $20,386.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 10:15am ET $17.41 1,137 $19,789.49 $19,796.05 $-596.92
(-2.9%)
TREND_BREAK
40m held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $16.42 1,205 $19,786.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 2:05pm ET $16.64 1,205 $20,045.18 $20,055.13 +$259.08
(+1.3%)
TREND_BREAK
4.6h held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $17.04 1,176 $20,039.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:45am ET $16.46 1,176 $19,356.96 $19,373.05 $-682.08
(-3.4%)
TREND_BREAK
15m held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 10:55am ET $15.36 1,260 $19,359.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 1:40pm ET $15.27 1,260 $19,246.50 $19,259.65 $-113.40
(-0.6%)
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 9:40am ET $16.47 1,169 $19,253.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 1:55pm ET $16.83 1,169 $19,668.43 $19,674.65 +$415.00
(+2.2%)
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $16.73 1,176 $19,674.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 1:25pm ET $16.68 1,176 $19,621.56 $19,621.73 $-52.92
(-0.3%)
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $16.03 1,224 $19,620.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 1:20pm ET $15.86 1,224 $19,418.76 $19,419.77 $-201.96
(-1.0%)
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET $16.74 1,160 $19,418.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:40am ET $16.16 1,160 $18,739.80 $18,741.05 $-678.72
(-3.5%)
TREND_BREAK
40m held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $15.63 1,199 $18,740.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 1:15pm ET $15.80 1,199 $18,938.21 $18,938.88 +$197.83
(+1.1%)
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET $15.60 1,213 $18,924.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 2:10pm ET $15.47 1,213 $18,759.05 $18,773.55 $-165.33
(-0.9%)
TREND_BREAK
4.6h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,773.55
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,773.55
Total Return: +87.74%
Back to Trent Follower