Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:09:17

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

32
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
10.1/35
Total Return
13.7/25
Win Rate
1.4/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 32.6/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 32.4

30-Day Momentum

14
+2.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.7 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,235.72
Current Value
$14,368.86
Period P&L
$133.15
Max Drawdown
-15.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
7 / 10
Best Trade
+7.16%
Worst Trade
-4.88%
Avg Trade Return
+0.09%
Avg Hold Time
9.4h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$467,292.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$133.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$133.15
Gross Return
+0.94%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.94%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $14,235.72 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $363.84 39 $14,189.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 11:30am ET $346.08 39 $13,496.93 $13,542.88 $-692.83
(-4.9%)
TREND_BREAK
2h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 10:35am ET $377.88 35 $13,225.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 9:35am ET $386.14 35 $13,514.90 $13,831.98 +$289.10
(+2.2%)
TREND_BREAK
23h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 10:55am ET $405.01 34 $13,770.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET $402.19 34 $13,674.46 $13,736.10 $-95.88
(-0.7%)
TREND_BREAK
2.5h held
4 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:35am ET $413.73 33 $13,653.09 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET $406.46 33 $13,413.10 $13,496.11 $-239.99
(-1.8%)
TREND_BREAK
2.4h held
5 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 11:40am ET $440.33 30 $13,209.90 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 9:35am ET $439.33 30 $13,179.90 $13,466.11 $-30.00
(-0.2%)
TREND_BREAK
21.9h held
6 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 10:35am ET $446.20 30 $13,386.15 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 2:00pm ET $447.23 30 $13,416.90 $13,496.86 +$30.75
(+0.2%)
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $412.36 32 $13,195.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 12:50pm ET $408.31 32 $13,065.88 $13,367.22 $-129.64
(-1.0%)
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 10:05am ET $411.09 32 $13,154.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 1:30pm ET $407.15 32 $13,028.80 $13,241.14 $-126.08
(-1.0%)
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:30am ET $397.70 33 $13,124.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 12:50pm ET $426.16 33 $14,063.28 $14,180.32 +$939.18
(+7.2%)
TREND_BREAK
2.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 11:00am ET $408.23 34 $13,879.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $415.66 34 $14,132.44 $14,432.77 +$252.45
(+1.8%)
TREND_BREAK
22.5h held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 11:30am ET $333.13 43 $14,324.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 1:05pm ET $327.52 43 $14,083.36 $14,191.43 $-241.34
(-1.7%)
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 9:50am ET $348.77 40 $13,950.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 11:05am ET $340.26 40 $13,610.20 $13,850.83 $-340.60
(-2.4%)
TREND_BREAK
1.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:05am ET $357.03 38 $13,567.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 3:50pm ET $363.05 38 $13,795.90 $14,079.50 +$228.67
(+1.7%)
TREND_BREAK
5.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:45am ET $359.42 39 $14,017.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 2:35pm ET $365.60 39 $14,258.40 $14,320.52 +$241.02
(+1.7%)
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $370.82 38 $14,091.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 2:35pm ET $381.57 38 $14,499.66 $14,729.02 +$408.50
(+2.9%)
TREND_BREAK
5.1h held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 10:10am ET $373.35 39 $14,560.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 1:05pm ET $366.59 39 $14,297.01 $14,465.38 $-263.64
(-1.8%)
TREND_BREAK
2.9h held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET $375.74 38 $14,278.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 1:10pm ET $373.20 38 $14,181.60 $14,368.86 $-96.52
(-0.7%)
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,368.86
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,368.86
Total Return: +43.69%
Back to Trent Follower