PANW Trent Follower's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-25 19:55:00+00 • 43 trades executed
+30.36%
2 Years Return
$13,178.73
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$10,109.57
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.18%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 82%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
11.2/35
Total Return
12.6/25
Win Rate
1.6/15
Profit Factor
5.4/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality
37.0/100
× Confidence 0.82
= 30.5
30-Day Momentum
42
+11.9%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
2.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 69.2
Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+12 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (82%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
50,400
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
533 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,109.57
Current Value
$13,178.73
Total P&L
$3,069.19
Max Drawdown
-9.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
32
Winners / Losers
14 /
18
Best Trade
+15.02%
Worst Trade
-3.17%
Avg Trade Return
+0.90%
Avg Hold Time
10.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$673,469.60
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,069.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,069.19
Gross Return
+30.36%
Net Return (after fees)
+30.36%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 533 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $10,109.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2024 9:40am ET | $176.25 | 57 | $10,046.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2024 1:35pm ET | $177.11 | 57 | $10,095.27 | $10,158.57 |
+$49.02 (+0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2024 9:30am ET | $191.41 | 53 | $10,144.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2024 1:35pm ET | $191.53 | 53 | $10,151.07 | $10,165.18 |
+$6.60 (+0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2024 9:30am ET | $195.95 | 51 | $9,993.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2024 12:05pm ET | $192.68 | 51 | $9,826.43 | $9,998.41 |
$-166.77 (-1.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $174.84 | 57 | $9,965.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2025 1:05pm ET | $173.98 | 57 | $9,916.58 | $9,949.10 |
$-49.31 (-0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2025 9:35am ET | $184.46 | 53 | $9,776.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2025 1:25pm ET | $183.69 | 53 | $9,735.70 | $9,908.43 |
$-40.68 (-0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2025 10:45am ET | $196.86 | 50 | $9,843.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2025 1:15pm ET | $193.97 | 50 | $9,698.50 | $9,763.75 |
$-144.67 (-1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $195.34 | 49 | $9,571.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2025 1:30pm ET | $194.80 | 49 | $9,545.20 | $9,737.54 |
$-26.21 (-0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
4h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $158.17 | 61 | $9,648.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 12:30pm ET | $156.95 | 61 | $9,573.71 | $9,662.87 |
$-74.66 (-0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2025 1:20pm ET | $163.33 | 59 | $9,636.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 10:15am ET | $167.62 | 59 | $9,889.29 | $9,915.69 |
+$252.82 (+2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
20.9h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $169.91 | 58 | $9,854.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2025 12:15pm ET | $167.79 | 58 | $9,732.11 | $9,793.01 |
$-122.67 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $187.60 | 52 | $9,755.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2025 12:40pm ET | $182.28 | 52 | $9,478.56 | $9,516.37 |
$-276.64 (-2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $185.32 | 51 | $9,451.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 12:35pm ET | $183.19 | 51 | $9,342.44 | $9,407.74 |
$-108.63 (-1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 11:00am ET | $157.57 | 59 | $9,296.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:05pm ET | $153.97 | 59 | $9,084.23 | $9,195.34 |
$-212.40 (-2.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $149.27 | 61 | $9,105.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:15pm ET | $148.39 | 61 | $9,051.79 | $9,141.66 |
$-53.68 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $151.53 | 60 | $9,091.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 1:25pm ET | $156.53 | 60 | $9,391.80 | $9,441.66 |
+$300.00 (+3.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 3:15pm ET | $167.74 | 56 | $9,393.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 12:15pm ET | $171.79 | 56 | $9,620.52 | $9,668.74 |
+$227.08 (+2.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
21h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $175.35 | 55 | $9,644.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:10pm ET | $174.83 | 55 | $9,615.66 | $9,639.87 |
$-28.87 (-0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.08 | 50 | $9,554.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 12:55pm ET | $194.12 | 50 | $9,706.00 | $9,791.87 |
+$152.00 (+1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:55am ET | $230.50 | 42 | $9,681.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 1:25pm ET | $233.82 | 42 | $9,820.44 | $9,931.31 |
+$139.44 (+1.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $268.10 | 37 | $9,919.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $288.97 | 37 | $10,691.89 | $10,703.50 |
+$772.19 (+7.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
4d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $310.98 | 34 | $10,573.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $357.70 | 34 | $12,161.80 | $12,291.81 |
+$1,588.31 (+15.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $362.67 | 33 | $11,968.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 12:10pm ET | $357.21 | 33 | $11,788.09 | $12,111.79 |
$-180.02 (-1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $332.27 | 36 | $11,961.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 10:15am ET | $335.18 | 36 | $12,066.48 | $12,216.55 |
+$104.76 (+0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
23.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $344.79 | 35 | $12,067.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $350.90 | 35 | $12,281.50 | $12,430.40 |
+$213.85 (+1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 10:15am ET | $366.00 | 33 | $12,078.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 1:40pm ET | $361.20 | 33 | $11,919.60 | $12,272.00 |
$-158.40 (-1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $332.31 | 36 | $11,963.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:20am ET | $322.61 | 36 | $11,613.78 | $11,922.62 |
$-349.38 (-2.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
50m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $355.67 | 33 | $11,736.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 1:30pm ET | $360.03 | 33 | $11,880.99 | $12,066.66 |
+$144.04 (+1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:45am ET | $367.45 | 32 | $11,758.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 1:35pm ET | $363.95 | 32 | $11,646.24 | $11,954.34 |
$-112.32 (-1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $396.60 | 30 | $11,897.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $390.53 | 30 | $11,715.91 | $11,772.40 |
$-181.94 (-1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $358.56 | 32 | $11,473.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $383.71 | 32 | $12,278.72 | $12,577.20 |
+$804.80 (+7.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.4h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $382.16 | 32 | $12,229.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $370.05 | 32 | $11,841.44 | $12,189.52 |
$-387.68 (-3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
23.7h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $346.24 | 35 | $12,118.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $374.51 | 35 | $13,107.68 | $13,178.73 |
+$989.21 (+8.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.4h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,178.73
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,178.73
Total Return:
+31.79%