Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:50:12

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 57%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.1/35
Total Return
5.0/25
Win Rate
5.5/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 21.1/100
× Confidence 0.57 = 11.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (57%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
53,708
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
526 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,023.54
Current Value
$10,297.08
Total P&L
$273.55
Max Drawdown
-2.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.23

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
9
Winners / Losers
5 / 4
Best Trade
+3.47%
Worst Trade
-1.48%
Avg Trade Return
+0.31%
Avg Hold Time
10.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$181,736.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$273.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$273.55
Gross Return
+2.73%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.73%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 526 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $10,023.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 9:30am ET $95.22 105 $9,998.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 12:15pm ET $93.81 105 $9,850.05 $9,875.49 $-148.05
(-1.5%)
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2025 1:15pm ET $94.55 104 $9,832.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 9:55am ET $97.83 104 $10,173.80 $10,216.61 +$341.12
(+3.5%)
TREND_BREAK
20.7h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2025 9:30am ET $100.19 101 $10,119.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2025 1:25pm ET $99.78 101 $10,078.03 $10,175.45 $-41.16
(-0.4%)
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held
4 🟢 BUY May 1, 2025 9:30am ET $107.30 94 $10,085.97 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 1:35pm ET $107.45 94 $10,100.07 $10,189.55 +$14.10
(+0.1%)
TREND_BREAK
4.1h held
5 🟢 BUY May 12, 2025 9:30am ET $112.83 90 $10,154.70 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2025 3:35pm ET $113.38 90 $10,203.75 $10,238.60 +$49.05
(+0.5%)
TREND_BREAK
6.1h held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET $146.93 69 $10,138.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET $146.79 69 $10,128.34 $10,228.50 $-10.09
(-0.1%)
TREND_BREAK
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $143.16 71 $10,164.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 1:30pm ET $141.81 71 $10,068.51 $10,132.30 $-96.20
(-0.9%)
TREND_BREAK
4h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $190.87 53 $10,116.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 2:05pm ET $191.25 53 $10,136.25 $10,152.44 +$20.14
(+0.2%)
TREND_BREAK
4.5h held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:45am ET $184.03 55 $10,121.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 10:30am ET $186.66 55 $10,266.30 $10,297.08 +$144.64
(+1.4%)
TREND_BREAK
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,297.08
Net Profit/Loss: +$297.08
Total Return: +2.97%
Back to Trent Follower