ARM Trent Follower's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 53 trades in period
-1.24%
Year to Date Return
$10,774.88
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$10,910.08
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
16
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.9/35
Total Return
7.8/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality
16.1/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 16.0
30-Day Momentum
17
+3.5%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 22.0
Conf: 0.78×
Steady (+1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,096
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,910.08
Current Value
$10,774.88
Period P&L
$-135.20
Max Drawdown
-32.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
53
Winners / Losers
23 /
30
Best Trade
+11.34%
Worst Trade
-7.17%
Avg Trade Return
+0.05%
Avg Hold Time
6.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,214,004.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-135.20
Net P&L (after fees)
$-135.20
Gross Return
-1.24%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.24%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 53 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $10,910.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $114.49 | 95 | $10,876.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 3:40pm ET | $115.21 | 95 | $10,944.95 | $10,978.47 |
+$68.40 (+0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $108.36 | 101 | $10,943.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 12:45pm ET | $106.65 | 101 | $10,771.65 | $10,806.27 |
$-172.21 (-1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $114.26 | 94 | $10,740.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 12:30pm ET | $112.93 | 94 | $10,615.52 | $10,681.35 |
$-124.92 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $109.60 | 97 | $10,631.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $112.21 | 97 | $10,884.37 | $10,934.52 |
+$253.17 (+2.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:30am ET | $129.17 | 84 | $10,850.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:25pm ET | $129.93 | 84 | $10,913.70 | $10,998.15 |
+$63.63 (+0.6%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.9h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $127.49 | 86 | $10,963.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 1:10pm ET | $128.26 | 86 | $11,030.36 | $11,064.80 |
+$66.65 (+0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $119.07 | 92 | $10,954.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 2:40pm ET | $121.60 | 92 | $11,187.20 | $11,297.56 |
+$232.76 (+2.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $119.81 | 94 | $11,262.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:30pm ET | $121.74 | 94 | $11,443.56 | $11,478.98 |
+$181.42 (+1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.9h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $137.83 | 83 | $11,439.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 12:50pm ET | $134.18 | 83 | $11,137.35 | $11,176.44 |
$-302.54 (-2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.35 | 75 | $11,126.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:55pm ET | $159.49 | 75 | $11,962.12 | $12,011.94 |
+$835.50 (+7.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $143.74 | 83 | $11,930.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $152.96 | 83 | $12,695.68 | $12,777.62 |
+$765.68 (+6.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $152.16 | 83 | $12,629.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $148.07 | 83 | $12,289.81 | $12,438.15 |
$-339.47 (-2.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.5h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $156.46 | 79 | $12,360.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 11:35am ET | $151.91 | 79 | $12,000.65 | $12,078.46 |
$-359.69 (-2.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 12:55pm ET | $156.74 | 77 | $12,069.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 1:55pm ET | $160.71 | 77 | $12,374.67 | $12,383.77 |
+$305.31 (+2.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 11:20am ET | $163.89 | 75 | $12,291.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 2:05pm ET | $162.00 | 75 | $12,150.00 | $12,242.02 |
$-141.75 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $179.20 | 68 | $12,185.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 11:00am ET | $174.62 | 68 | $11,874.16 | $11,930.37 |
$-311.65 (-2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
55m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 11:00am ET | $185.65 | 64 | $11,881.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $203.38 | 64 | $13,016.56 | $13,065.33 |
+$1,134.96 (+9.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 11:10am ET | $209.81 | 62 | $13,008.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 2:35pm ET | $211.48 | 62 | $13,111.76 | $13,168.87 |
+$103.54 (+0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $209.82 | 62 | $13,008.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $208.90 | 62 | $12,951.80 | $13,111.77 |
$-57.10 (-0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.9h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $220.15 | 59 | $12,988.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:30am ET | $213.26 | 59 | $12,582.05 | $12,704.97 |
$-406.80 (-3.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
45m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $212.26 | 59 | $12,523.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $217.84 | 59 | $12,852.56 | $13,034.15 |
+$329.18 (+2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $219.50 | 59 | $12,950.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 10:15am ET | $209.04 | 59 | $12,333.07 | $12,416.72 |
$-617.43 (-4.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
35m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $253.79 | 48 | $12,181.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $252.27 | 48 | $12,108.96 | $12,344.00 |
$-72.72 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $301.00 | 41 | $12,341.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 1:15pm ET | $305.63 | 41 | $12,530.83 | $12,533.83 |
+$189.83 (+1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $317.99 | 39 | $12,401.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 2:40pm ET | $342.11 | 39 | $13,342.48 | $13,474.71 |
+$940.88 (+7.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $395.64 | 34 | $13,451.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $409.62 | 34 | $13,927.08 | $13,950.03 |
+$475.32 (+3.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 2:00pm ET | $408.96 | 34 | $13,904.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $385.72 | 34 | $13,114.48 | $13,159.70 |
$-790.33 (-5.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
19.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:10am ET | $359.10 | 36 | $12,927.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 12:35pm ET | $350.97 | 36 | $12,634.92 | $12,867.02 |
$-292.68 (-2.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $326.87 | 39 | $12,747.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 10:55am ET | $320.74 | 39 | $12,508.86 | $12,628.11 |
$-238.91 (-1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 10:55am ET | $324.60 | 38 | $12,334.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 12:55pm ET | $323.26 | 38 | $12,283.69 | $12,577.00 |
$-51.11 (-0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
2h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $389.84 | 32 | $12,474.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $372.23 | 32 | $11,911.52 | $12,013.64 |
$-563.36 (-4.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
5m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $424.41 | 28 | $11,883.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $411.13 | 28 | $11,511.50 | $11,641.66 |
$-371.98 (-3.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
50m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $421.85 | 27 | $11,389.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $420.08 | 27 | $11,342.16 | $11,593.87 |
$-47.79 (-0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $367.21 | 31 | $11,383.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:45am ET | $348.95 | 31 | $10,817.45 | $11,027.81 |
$-566.06 (-5.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
15m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 12:05pm ET | $336.35 | 32 | $10,763.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $356.91 | 32 | $11,421.12 | $11,685.73 |
+$657.92 (+6.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $355.34 | 32 | $11,370.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $338.27 | 32 | $10,824.80 | $11,139.65 |
$-546.08 (-4.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
30m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 10:25am ET | $330.94 | 33 | $10,921.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 12:45pm ET | $325.75 | 33 | $10,749.75 | $10,968.38 |
$-171.27 (-1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $325.53 | 33 | $10,742.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 1:45pm ET | $333.34 | 33 | $11,000.22 | $11,226.11 |
+$257.73 (+2.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 10:15am ET | $264.23 | 42 | $11,097.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 3:05pm ET | $266.73 | 42 | $11,202.66 | $11,331.11 |
+$105.00 (+0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $282.16 | 40 | $11,286.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 2:30pm ET | $289.67 | 40 | $11,587.00 | $11,631.71 |
+$300.60 (+2.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
5h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $267.15 | 43 | $11,487.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $247.99 | 43 | $10,663.36 | $10,807.76 |
$-823.95 (-7.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
18.1h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 2:50pm ET | $239.29 | 45 | $10,768.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:30pm ET | $230.63 | 45 | $10,378.57 | $10,418.06 |
$-389.70 (-3.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
40m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $258.32 | 40 | $10,332.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 11:45am ET | $245.45 | 40 | $9,818.00 | $9,903.26 |
$-514.80 (-5.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.88 | 37 | $9,689.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $274.58 | 37 | $10,159.28 | $10,372.98 |
+$469.72 (+4.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 10:05am ET | $288.97 | 35 | $10,113.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 1:45pm ET | $287.77 | 35 | $10,071.95 | $10,331.09 |
$-41.89 (-0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.7h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $281.51 | 36 | $10,134.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 1:40pm ET | $283.86 | 36 | $10,218.78 | $10,415.51 |
+$84.42 (+0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $255.20 | 40 | $10,207.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $253.68 | 40 | $10,147.20 | $10,354.91 |
$-60.60 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.9h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $252.35 | 41 | $10,346.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 1:10pm ET | $251.17 | 41 | $10,297.97 | $10,306.53 |
$-48.38 (-0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.7h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $272.42 | 37 | $10,079.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 11:20am ET | $263.67 | 37 | $9,755.97 | $9,982.96 |
$-323.57 (-3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.7h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 1:30pm ET | $266.63 | 37 | $9,865.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 3:40pm ET | $263.09 | 37 | $9,734.33 | $9,851.84 |
$-131.12 (-1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.2h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $250.61 | 39 | $9,773.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 12:05pm ET | $243.66 | 39 | $9,502.74 | $9,580.91 |
$-270.93 (-2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $258.01 | 37 | $9,546.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $261.15 | 37 | $9,662.42 | $9,696.96 |
+$116.05 (+1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.6h held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $296.97 | 32 | $9,503.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 3:05pm ET | $330.65 | 32 | $10,580.96 | $10,774.88 |
+$1,077.92 (+11.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,774.88
Net Profit/Loss:
+$774.88
Total Return:
+7.75%