DOGEUSD Trent Follower's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 40 trades in period
-36.61%
Year to Date Return
$1,585.37
Current Value
23%
Win Rate
$2,113.67
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
21.8 oversold
20d Trend
-37.1%
5d Trend
-36.5%
EMA20 Dist
-35.0%
ATR%
12.1%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026
2
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
1.6/10
Raw Quality
1.6/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 1.6
30-Day Momentum
6
-3.9%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.0
Conf: 0.74×
Steady (+4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
77,030
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
268 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$2,113.67
Current Value
$1,585.37
Period P&L
$-773.82
Max Drawdown
-84.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.23
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
9 /
31
Best Trade
+6.67%
Worst Trade
-5.32%
Avg Trade Return
-0.54%
Avg Hold Time
3.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$145,382.37
Estimated Fees
$363.46
Gross P&L
$-773.82
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,137.28
Gross Return
-36.61%
Net Return (after fees)
-53.81%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 DOGEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 268 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $2,113.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 1, 2026 10:45am ET | $0.1245 | 16,974 | $2,113.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 1, 2026 7:15pm ET | $0.1261 | 16,974 | $2,140.73 | $2,130.10 |
+$16.34 (+1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
8.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 4:45am ET | $0.1345 | 15,841 | $2,130.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 6:40am ET | $0.1300 | 15,841 | $2,058.81 | $2,048.34 |
$-81.76 (-3.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $0.1359 | 15,070 | $2,048.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 3:50pm ET | $0.1390 | 15,070 | $2,094.15 | $2,083.80 |
+$35.46 (+2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 3, 2026 10:45pm ET | $0.1516 | 13,749 | $2,083.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 4, 2026 1:45am ET | $0.1500 | 13,749 | $2,062.76 | $2,052.40 |
$-31.40 (-1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 4:30pm ET | $0.1508 | 13,614 | $2,052.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 7:30pm ET | $0.1494 | 13,614 | $2,034.29 | $2,024.07 |
$-28.32 (-0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 3:50am ET | $0.1534 | 13,198 | $2,024.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 4:30am ET | $0.1489 | 13,198 | $1,965.15 | $1,955.18 |
$-68.89 (-2.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
42m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 5:10pm ET | $0.1484 | 13,173 | $1,955.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 8:25pm ET | $0.1479 | 13,173 | $1,948.33 | $1,938.57 |
$-16.61 (-0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 2:40pm ET | $0.1276 | 15,195 | $1,938.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 6:20pm ET | $0.1269 | 15,195 | $1,928.09 | $1,918.42 |
$-20.15 (-0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $0.1102 | 17,409 | $1,918.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 1:10pm ET | $0.1084 | 17,409 | $1,886.43 | $1,876.92 |
$-41.50 (-1.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $0.1087 | 17,267 | $1,876.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 5:45pm ET | $0.1060 | 17,267 | $1,830.47 | $1,821.20 |
$-55.72 (-2.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 12:50am ET | $0.0934 | 19,505 | $1,821.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:05am ET | $0.0906 | 19,505 | $1,766.20 | $1,757.23 |
$-63.97 (-3.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $0.0984 | 17,867 | $1,757.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:10pm ET | $0.0986 | 17,867 | $1,762.41 | $1,753.61 |
$-3.62 (+0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $0.1012 | 17,326 | $1,753.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $0.1005 | 17,326 | $1,741.16 | $1,741.16 |
$-21.19 (-0.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:15am ET | $0.0980 | 17,762 | $1,741.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 5:40pm ET | $0.1033 | 17,762 | $1,834.23 | $1,834.23 |
+$84.13 (+5.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
8.4h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 9:00am ET | $0.0919 | 19,968 | $1,834.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 12:20pm ET | $0.0904 | 19,968 | $1,805.36 | $1,805.36 |
$-37.97 (-1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 9:05pm ET | $0.0975 | 18,515 | $1,805.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 12:15am ET | $0.0961 | 18,515 | $1,779.46 | $1,779.46 |
$-34.86 (-1.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $0.0951 | 18,707 | $1,779.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 1:30pm ET | $0.0954 | 18,707 | $1,784.77 | $1,784.77 |
$-3.60 (+0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 4:05am ET | $0.0926 | 19,267 | $1,784.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 7:20am ET | $0.0920 | 19,267 | $1,773.48 | $1,773.48 |
$-20.19 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.0960 | 18,474 | $1,773.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 4:10pm ET | $0.1024 | 18,474 | $1,891.76 | $1,891.76 |
+$109.11 (+6.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.2h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 5:35am ET | $0.0955 | 19,802 | $1,891.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 8:05am ET | $0.0944 | 19,802 | $1,868.91 | $1,868.91 |
$-32.25 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:50am ET | $0.0988 | 18,918 | $1,868.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 1:40pm ET | $0.0982 | 18,918 | $1,857.70 | $1,857.70 |
$-20.53 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 8:30pm ET | $0.0979 | 18,968 | $1,857.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 10:35pm ET | $0.0959 | 18,968 | $1,819.05 | $1,819.05 |
$-47.83 (-2.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 15, 2026 11:30pm ET | $0.1012 | 17,970 | $1,819.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 4:25am ET | $0.1014 | 17,970 | $1,822.18 | $1,822.18 |
$-5.97 (+0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.9h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 7:10am ET | $0.0944 | 19,313 | $1,822.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $0.0939 | 19,313 | $1,813.05 | $1,813.05 |
$-18.22 (-0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.0977 | 18,562 | $1,813.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 12:35pm ET | $0.0955 | 18,562 | $1,773.21 | $1,773.21 |
$-48.80 (-2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 4:20am ET | $0.1058 | 16,766 | $1,773.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 8:05am ET | $0.1077 | 16,766 | $1,805.84 | $1,805.84 |
+$23.68 (+1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 8:40pm ET | $0.1069 | 16,898 | $1,805.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:35pm ET | $0.1055 | 16,898 | $1,783.15 | $1,783.15 |
$-31.66 (-1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.9h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 3, 2026 10:00pm ET | $0.1126 | 15,840 | $1,783.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 1:25am ET | $0.1125 | 15,840 | $1,782.11 | $1,782.11 |
$-9.95 (-0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 10:35am ET | $0.0906 | 19,671 | $1,782.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 12:00pm ET | $0.0879 | 19,671 | $1,728.22 | $1,728.22 |
$-62.67 (-3.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.4h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 11:30am ET | $0.0734 | 23,557 | $1,728.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 3:15pm ET | $0.0725 | 23,557 | $1,708.72 | $1,708.72 |
$-28.09 (-1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 5:10pm ET | $0.0756 | 22,600 | $1,708.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:10pm ET | $0.0749 | 22,600 | $1,692.40 | $1,692.40 |
$-24.82 (-1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
4h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 12:40pm ET | $0.0811 | 20,861 | $1,692.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $0.0806 | 20,861 | $1,682.16 | $1,682.16 |
$-18.68 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 5:10pm ET | $0.0879 | 19,137 | $1,682.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 8:40pm ET | $0.0911 | 19,137 | $1,742.85 | $1,742.85 |
+$52.13 (+3.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 11:20pm ET | $0.0955 | 18,245 | $1,742.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET | $0.0904 | 18,245 | $1,650.16 | $1,650.16 |
$-101.17 (-5.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 10:45am ET | $0.0866 | 19,062 | $1,650.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 3:50pm ET | $0.0891 | 19,062 | $1,698.43 | $1,698.43 |
+$39.90 (+2.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 5, 2026 1:55pm ET | $0.0923 | 18,393 | $1,698.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 5, 2026 4:35pm ET | $0.0905 | 18,393 | $1,664.98 | $1,664.98 |
$-41.86 (-2.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $0.0869 | 19,169 | $1,664.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 11:55am ET | $0.0846 | 19,169 | $1,622.61 | $1,622.61 |
$-50.58 (-2.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
2h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 4:45am ET | $0.0919 | 17,648 | $1,622.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $0.0930 | 17,648 | $1,640.44 | $1,640.44 |
+$9.67 (+1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.9h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $0.0968 | 16,947 | $1,640.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 3:45pm ET | $0.0977 | 16,947 | $1,656.39 | $1,656.39 |
+$7.71 (+1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.7h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 12:05am ET | $0.1047 | 15,824 | $1,656.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 12:55am ET | $0.1002 | 15,824 | $1,585.37 | $1,585.37 |
$-79.12 (-4.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
50m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$1,585.37
Net Profit/Loss:
$-8,414.63
Total Return:
-84.15%