MRNA Trent Follower's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 55 trades in period
+68.65%
Year to Date Return
$13,912.97
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$8,249.60
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
26
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.1/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
1.9/15
Profit Factor
1.7/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality
25.8/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 25.7
30-Day Momentum
32
+8.2%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 39.0
Conf: 0.81×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,086
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$8,249.60
Current Value
$13,912.97
Period P&L
$5,663.38
Max Drawdown
-44.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
55
Winners / Losers
26 /
29
Best Trade
+16.81%
Worst Trade
-5.60%
Avg Trade Return
+1.07%
Avg Hold Time
11.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,129,485.24
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$5,663.38
Net P&L (after fees)
$5,663.38
Gross Return
+68.65%
Net Return (after fees)
+68.65%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 55 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $8,249.60 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $30.66 | 269 | $8,247.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 1:10pm ET | $30.67 | 269 | $8,250.23 | $8,251.91 |
+$2.31 (+0.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.70 | 244 | $8,222.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 1:35pm ET | $35.20 | 244 | $8,587.58 | $8,616.69 |
+$364.78 (+4.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.32 | 243 | $8,581.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $41.25 | 243 | $10,023.75 | $10,058.90 |
+$1,442.21 (+16.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $42.05 | 239 | $10,049.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 1:25pm ET | $41.31 | 239 | $9,873.09 | $9,882.16 |
$-176.74 (-1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.38 | 222 | $9,851.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.04 | 222 | $11,330.66 | $11,361.57 |
+$1,479.41 (+15.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.15 | 226 | $11,333.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 11:55am ET | $48.30 | 226 | $10,915.80 | $10,943.63 |
$-417.94 (-3.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.4h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.51 | 235 | $10,929.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $45.80 | 235 | $10,762.32 | $10,776.09 |
$-167.53 (-1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.4h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 1:35pm ET | $44.77 | 240 | $10,744.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:00pm ET | $43.19 | 240 | $10,364.40 | $10,395.69 |
$-380.40 (-3.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
24m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $42.59 | 244 | $10,391.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $44.37 | 244 | $10,826.30 | $10,830.04 |
+$434.34 (+4.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.9h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $44.95 | 240 | $10,788.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:20am ET | $42.59 | 240 | $10,221.60 | $10,263.64 |
$-566.40 (-5.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
30m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 10:20am ET | $46.98 | 218 | $10,241.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 1:05pm ET | $46.00 | 218 | $10,027.26 | $10,049.26 |
$-214.38 (-2.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 1:30pm ET | $48.49 | 207 | $10,037.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $48.93 | 207 | $10,128.51 | $10,140.34 |
+$91.08 (+0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
20.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $53.19 | 190 | $10,106.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $50.99 | 190 | $9,688.10 | $9,722.34 |
$-418.00 (-4.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:40am ET | $53.11 | 183 | $9,719.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:45am ET | $51.34 | 183 | $9,395.24 | $9,398.45 |
$-323.89 (-3.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $53.49 | 175 | $9,359.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.60 | 175 | $8,855.00 | $8,893.57 |
$-504.88 (-5.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.7d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.94 | 171 | $8,882.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $56.94 | 171 | $9,735.89 | $9,747.03 |
+$853.46 (+9.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $52.35 | 186 | $9,737.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $52.72 | 186 | $9,805.92 | $9,815.85 |
+$68.82 (+0.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 10:25am ET | $57.14 | 171 | $9,770.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 1:00pm ET | $56.19 | 171 | $9,607.91 | $9,652.85 |
$-163.00 (-1.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $54.62 | 176 | $9,612.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 12:10pm ET | $53.96 | 176 | $9,496.08 | $9,536.51 |
$-116.34 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:05am ET | $53.57 | 178 | $9,535.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:40pm ET | $53.53 | 178 | $9,528.34 | $9,529.39 |
$-7.12 (-0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $49.88 | 191 | $9,527.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 11:45am ET | $48.57 | 191 | $9,276.87 | $9,279.18 |
$-250.21 (-2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.99 | 178 | $9,254.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $51.68 | 178 | $9,199.04 | $9,224.00 |
$-55.18 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.9h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $54.63 | 168 | $9,178.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 3:40pm ET | $53.89 | 168 | $9,053.52 | $9,098.84 |
$-125.16 (-1.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.50 | 163 | $9,046.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $54.48 | 163 | $8,880.24 | $8,932.58 |
$-166.26 (-1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.7h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $56.15 | 159 | $8,928.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 11:00am ET | $54.33 | 159 | $8,638.47 | $8,642.80 |
$-289.78 (-3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
20m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $46.98 | 183 | $8,597.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 12:20pm ET | $46.70 | 183 | $8,546.10 | $8,591.56 |
$-51.24 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.58 | 184 | $8,570.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 1:35pm ET | $47.26 | 184 | $8,696.37 | $8,717.21 |
+$125.65 (+1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
4h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 10:15am ET | $47.86 | 182 | $8,710.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:25am ET | $49.10 | 182 | $8,936.20 | $8,942.89 |
+$225.68 (+2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 10:25am ET | $54.60 | 163 | $8,899.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 2:00pm ET | $54.94 | 163 | $8,954.41 | $8,997.50 |
+$54.61 (+0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 11:45am ET | $54.59 | 164 | $8,952.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 12:40pm ET | $53.32 | 164 | $8,744.48 | $8,789.22 |
$-208.28 (-2.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
55m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 10:25am ET | $47.85 | 183 | $8,755.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $48.24 | 183 | $8,827.92 | $8,861.51 |
+$72.29 (+0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 12:10pm ET | $48.88 | 181 | $8,848.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 2:45pm ET | $47.98 | 181 | $8,684.38 | $8,697.71 |
$-163.80 (-1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 2:10pm ET | $48.72 | 178 | $8,671.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 1:35pm ET | $50.83 | 178 | $9,047.74 | $9,074.18 |
+$376.47 (+4.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
23.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.45 | 179 | $9,030.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 12:05pm ET | $50.05 | 179 | $8,958.95 | $9,002.58 |
$-71.60 (-0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.5h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $53.23 | 169 | $8,995.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 3:20pm ET | $56.02 | 169 | $9,467.38 | $9,474.09 |
+$471.51 (+5.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.5h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 3:20pm ET | $61.37 | 154 | $9,450.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 12:40pm ET | $62.26 | 154 | $9,588.81 | $9,611.92 |
+$137.83 (+1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
21.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $62.47 | 153 | $9,557.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 1:35pm ET | $62.33 | 153 | $9,537.25 | $9,591.26 |
$-20.66 (-0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $61.03 | 157 | $9,580.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 1:55pm ET | $66.40 | 157 | $10,424.80 | $10,435.14 |
+$843.88 (+8.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.4h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.51 | 145 | $10,369.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 1:15pm ET | $71.69 | 145 | $10,395.05 | $10,460.51 |
+$25.38 (+0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.80 | 138 | $10,460.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $77.97 | 138 | $10,759.86 | $10,759.97 |
+$299.46 (+2.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
4d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.29 | 191 | $10,751.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 1:25pm ET | $55.64 | 191 | $10,627.22 | $10,635.80 |
$-124.17 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $57.68 | 184 | $10,613.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 12:35pm ET | $56.19 | 184 | $10,338.96 | $10,361.18 |
$-274.62 (-2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $59.27 | 174 | $10,312.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $57.53 | 174 | $10,009.35 | $10,057.55 |
$-303.63 (-2.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
30m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:50am ET | $56.22 | 178 | $10,007.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $59.03 | 178 | $10,508.19 | $10,558.58 |
+$501.03 (+5.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.1d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $62.12 | 169 | $10,498.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 3:50pm ET | $63.49 | 169 | $10,729.81 | $10,790.11 |
+$231.53 (+2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.8h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $118.10 | 91 | $10,747.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET | $137.45 | 91 | $12,507.95 | $12,551.01 |
+$1,760.90 (+16.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $144.45 | 86 | $12,422.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $148.01 | 86 | $12,728.86 | $12,857.17 |
+$306.16 (+2.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.7h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.42 | 87 | $12,825.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 2:30pm ET | $156.92 | 87 | $13,652.33 | $13,684.36 |
+$827.19 (+6.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
5h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:45am ET | $141.93 | 96 | $13,625.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 1:40pm ET | $141.45 | 96 | $13,578.72 | $13,637.80 |
$-46.56 (-0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 3:05pm ET | $152.88 | 89 | $13,605.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $150.09 | 89 | $13,357.57 | $13,389.49 |
$-248.31 (-1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
19h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $153.62 | 87 | $13,364.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $145.01 | 87 | $12,615.87 | $12,640.42 |
$-749.07 (-5.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
15m held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $140.14 | 90 | $12,612.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 2:05pm ET | $147.42 | 90 | $13,267.80 | $13,295.67 |
+$655.25 (+5.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.4h held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $152.56 | 87 | $13,272.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $155.98 | 87 | $13,569.83 | $13,592.78 |
+$297.11 (+2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.7h held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $161.52 | 84 | $13,568.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $169.56 | 84 | $14,243.04 | $14,267.72 |
+$674.94 (+5.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $188.69 | 75 | $14,151.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $183.96 | 75 | $13,797.00 | $13,912.97 |
$-354.75 (-2.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,912.97
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,912.97
Total Return:
+39.13%