Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 20:21:22

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.18%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 82%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.2/35
Total Return
12.6/25
Win Rate
1.6/15
Profit Factor
5.4/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 37.0/100
× Confidence 0.82 = 30.5

30-Day Momentum

42
+11.9%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
2.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 69.2 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+12 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (82%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,284
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
190 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,516.40
Current Value
$13,178.73
Period P&L
$3,662.36
Max Drawdown
-9.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.38

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
21
Winners / Losers
11 / 10
Best Trade
+15.02%
Worst Trade
-3.17%
Avg Trade Return
+1.66%
Avg Hold Time
12.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$457,591.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,662.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,662.36
Gross Return
+38.48%
Net Return (after fees)
+38.48%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 190 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 21 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $9,516.40 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $185.32 51 $9,451.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 12:35pm ET $183.19 51 $9,342.44 $9,407.74 $-108.63
(-1.1%)
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 11:00am ET $157.57 59 $9,296.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 1:05pm ET $153.97 59 $9,084.23 $9,195.34 $-212.40
(-2.3%)
TREND_BREAK
2.1h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET $149.27 61 $9,105.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 1:15pm ET $148.39 61 $9,051.79 $9,141.66 $-53.68
(-0.6%)
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $151.53 60 $9,091.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 1:25pm ET $156.53 60 $9,391.80 $9,441.66 +$300.00
(+3.3%)
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 3:15pm ET $167.74 56 $9,393.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 12:15pm ET $171.79 56 $9,620.52 $9,668.74 +$227.08
(+2.4%)
TREND_BREAK
21h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:55am ET $175.35 55 $9,644.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 1:10pm ET $174.83 55 $9,615.66 $9,639.87 $-28.87
(-0.3%)
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held
7 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:30am ET $191.08 50 $9,554.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 12:55pm ET $194.12 50 $9,706.00 $9,791.87 +$152.00
(+1.6%)
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held
8 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 9:55am ET $230.50 42 $9,681.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 1:25pm ET $233.82 42 $9,820.44 $9,931.31 +$139.44
(+1.4%)
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held
9 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:45am ET $268.10 37 $9,919.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $288.97 37 $10,691.89 $10,703.50 +$772.19
(+7.8%)
TREND_BREAK
4d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $310.98 34 $10,573.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 11:55am ET $357.70 34 $12,161.80 $12,291.81 +$1,588.31
(+15.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:55am ET $362.67 33 $11,968.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 12:10pm ET $357.21 33 $11,788.09 $12,111.79 $-180.02
(-1.5%)
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 10:25am ET $332.27 36 $11,961.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 10:15am ET $335.18 36 $12,066.48 $12,216.55 +$104.76
(+0.9%)
TREND_BREAK
23.8h held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET $344.79 35 $12,067.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 2:20pm ET $350.90 35 $12,281.50 $12,430.40 +$213.85
(+1.8%)
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 10:15am ET $366.00 33 $12,078.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 1:40pm ET $361.20 33 $11,919.60 $12,272.00 $-158.40
(-1.3%)
TREND_BREAK
3.4h held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $332.31 36 $11,963.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:20am ET $322.61 36 $11,613.78 $11,922.62 $-349.38
(-2.9%)
TREND_BREAK
50m held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET $355.67 33 $11,736.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 1:30pm ET $360.03 33 $11,880.99 $12,066.66 +$144.04
(+1.2%)
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 9:45am ET $367.45 32 $11,758.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 1:35pm ET $363.95 32 $11,646.24 $11,954.34 $-112.32
(-1.0%)
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 9:45am ET $396.60 30 $11,897.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 12:00pm ET $390.53 30 $11,715.91 $11,772.40 $-181.94
(-1.5%)
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $358.56 32 $11,473.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $383.71 32 $12,278.72 $12,577.20 +$804.80
(+7.0%)
TREND_BREAK
6.4h held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:50am ET $382.16 32 $12,229.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $370.05 32 $11,841.44 $12,189.52 $-387.68
(-3.2%)
TREND_BREAK
23.7h held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $346.24 35 $12,118.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $374.51 35 $13,107.68 $13,178.73 +$989.21
(+8.2%)
TREND_BREAK
6.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,178.73
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,178.73
Total Return: +31.79%
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