SMCI Trent Follower's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 51 trades in period
+22.16%
Year to Date Return
$29,761.36
Current Value
45%
Win Rate
$24,363.41
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
54
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
24.7/35
Total Return
19.1/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
2.7/15
Consistency
6.6/10
Raw Quality
54.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 53.9
30-Day Momentum
14
+0.9%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 17.0
Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-40 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,004
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$24,363.41
Current Value
$29,761.36
Period P&L
$5,397.96
Max Drawdown
-28.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
51
Winners / Losers
23 /
28
Best Trade
+15.91%
Worst Trade
-5.62%
Avg Trade Return
+0.46%
Avg Hold Time
6.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,736,534.38
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$5,397.96
Net P&L (after fees)
$5,397.96
Gross Return
+22.16%
Net Return (after fees)
+22.16%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 51 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $24,363.41 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.30 | 804 | $24,361.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 1:45pm ET | $30.88 | 804 | $24,827.44 | $24,829.66 |
+$466.24 (+1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $29.15 | 851 | $24,806.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 3:05pm ET | $29.54 | 851 | $25,134.29 | $25,157.29 |
+$327.64 (+1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.5h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 3:00pm ET | $32.63 | 771 | $25,153.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 12:50pm ET | $32.76 | 771 | $25,261.04 | $25,264.46 |
+$107.17 (+0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
21.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 10:05am ET | $32.15 | 785 | $25,237.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:40am ET | $31.38 | 785 | $24,629.38 | $24,656.08 |
$-608.37 (-2.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 12:15pm ET | $30.49 | 808 | $24,635.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:30pm ET | $30.33 | 808 | $24,510.68 | $24,530.84 |
$-125.24 (-0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.56 | 730 | $24,498.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $32.23 | 730 | $23,527.90 | $23,559.94 |
$-970.90 (-4.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $32.95 | 715 | $23,559.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:10pm ET | $33.81 | 715 | $24,174.15 | $24,174.84 |
+$614.90 (+2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.4h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.25 | 773 | $24,156.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 1:20pm ET | $31.23 | 773 | $24,137.47 | $24,156.06 |
$-18.78 (-0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $32.04 | 753 | $24,126.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.07 | 753 | $24,901.71 | $24,931.65 |
+$775.59 (+3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
23.9h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $32.93 | 757 | $24,928.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $32.22 | 757 | $24,390.62 | $24,394.26 |
$-537.39 (-2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $32.08 | 760 | $24,377.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:25pm ET | $32.42 | 760 | $24,639.20 | $24,656.46 |
+$262.20 (+1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.4h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.50 | 782 | $24,633.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 11:25am ET | $32.08 | 782 | $25,082.65 | $25,106.11 |
+$449.65 (+1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:10am ET | $21.77 | 1,153 | $25,099.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 3:25pm ET | $21.73 | 1,153 | $25,057.57 | $25,064.49 |
$-41.62 (-0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $23.06 | 1,086 | $25,043.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:45pm ET | $23.77 | 1,086 | $25,819.65 | $25,840.98 |
+$776.49 (+3.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET | $22.14 | 1,167 | $25,837.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $22.75 | 1,167 | $26,555.08 | $26,558.68 |
+$717.70 (+2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
22.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.03 | 1,105 | $26,553.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:35pm ET | $23.36 | 1,105 | $25,812.80 | $25,818.33 |
$-740.35 (-2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $24.22 | 1,065 | $25,794.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 2:50pm ET | $25.07 | 1,065 | $26,699.44 | $26,723.47 |
+$905.14 (+3.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.00 | 989 | $26,703.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 1:50pm ET | $27.42 | 989 | $27,113.44 | $27,133.91 |
+$410.44 (+1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $29.63 | 915 | $27,111.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 12:30pm ET | $29.28 | 915 | $26,795.77 | $26,818.24 |
$-315.67 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $27.98 | 958 | $26,804.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 3:40pm ET | $28.86 | 958 | $27,647.98 | $27,661.38 |
+$843.14 (+3.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:45am ET | $28.23 | 979 | $27,637.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 12:10pm ET | $27.73 | 979 | $27,147.57 | $27,171.88 |
$-489.50 (-1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.4h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.36 | 866 | $27,157.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET | $34.38 | 866 | $29,773.95 | $29,788.07 |
+$2,616.19 (+9.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 12:00pm ET | $35.47 | 839 | $29,759.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 2:00pm ET | $34.84 | 839 | $29,230.76 | $29,259.50 |
$-528.57 (-1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 10:55am ET | $33.73 | 867 | $29,243.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 1:10pm ET | $32.85 | 867 | $28,480.95 | $28,496.54 |
$-762.96 (-2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 1:20pm ET | $31.28 | 911 | $28,496.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 3:25pm ET | $30.60 | 911 | $27,881.15 | $27,881.61 |
$-614.93 (-2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.90 | 822 | $27,865.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 3:25pm ET | $35.37 | 822 | $29,074.14 | $29,089.95 |
+$1,208.34 (+4.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.54 | 754 | $29,062.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $37.27 | 754 | $28,101.58 | $28,128.60 |
$-961.35 (-3.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
55m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 10:25am ET | $39.62 | 709 | $28,090.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 2:15pm ET | $41.65 | 709 | $29,529.85 | $29,567.87 |
+$1,439.27 (+5.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $47.44 | 623 | $29,555.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $47.22 | 623 | $29,418.06 | $29,430.81 |
$-137.06 (-0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $43.83 | 671 | $29,409.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 3:40pm ET | $43.72 | 671 | $29,332.77 | $29,353.64 |
$-77.17 (-0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.2h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 1:45pm ET | $30.54 | 961 | $29,348.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $29.83 | 961 | $28,666.63 | $28,671.33 |
$-682.31 (-2.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
19.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.75 | 902 | $28,643.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 12:40pm ET | $31.09 | 902 | $28,047.69 | $28,076.01 |
$-595.32 (-2.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 9:55am ET | $29.78 | 942 | $28,052.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 2:35pm ET | $30.32 | 942 | $28,556.73 | $28,579.89 |
+$503.88 (+1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.52 | 852 | $28,559.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $31.63 | 852 | $26,952.68 | $26,973.53 |
$-1,606.36 (-5.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
25m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:00am ET | $29.14 | 925 | $26,954.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $28.03 | 925 | $25,927.75 | $25,946.78 |
$-1,026.75 (-3.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
25m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 10:00am ET | $27.23 | 953 | $25,945.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 11:25am ET | $26.44 | 953 | $25,199.23 | $25,200.58 |
$-746.20 (-2.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.4h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 1:00pm ET | $25.06 | 1,005 | $25,180.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 2:40pm ET | $24.52 | 1,005 | $24,638.38 | $24,658.68 |
$-541.90 (-2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.7h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 11:45am ET | $25.23 | 977 | $24,644.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $25.19 | 977 | $24,615.51 | $24,629.37 |
$-29.31 (-0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $32.27 | 763 | $24,622.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 1:55pm ET | $31.44 | 763 | $23,989.10 | $23,996.46 |
$-632.91 (-2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.4h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $27.76 | 864 | $23,984.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 1:35pm ET | $27.75 | 864 | $23,977.81 | $23,989.63 |
$-6.83 (-0.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.61 | 810 | $23,984.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.27 | 810 | $25,328.70 | $25,334.23 |
+$1,344.60 (+5.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.95 | 792 | $25,304.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $32.08 | 792 | $25,411.32 | $25,441.15 |
+$106.92 (+0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.70 | 733 | $25,435.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 10:10am ET | $40.22 | 733 | $29,481.26 | $29,487.31 |
+$4,046.16 (+15.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.90 | 799 | $29,483.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 1:35pm ET | $38.08 | 799 | $30,421.93 | $30,426.13 |
+$938.82 (+3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.1h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $39.19 | 776 | $30,407.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $37.84 | 776 | $29,363.84 | $29,382.41 |
$-1,043.72 (-3.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $37.73 | 778 | $29,353.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $36.25 | 778 | $28,202.19 | $28,230.66 |
$-1,151.75 (-3.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
10m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $39.09 | 722 | $28,222.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 2:30pm ET | $40.15 | 722 | $28,984.69 | $28,992.37 |
+$761.71 (+2.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.5h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 10:25am ET | $39.86 | 727 | $28,978.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 12:40pm ET | $38.96 | 727 | $28,323.85 | $28,338.00 |
$-654.37 (-2.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.05 | 744 | $28,309.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 2:35pm ET | $40.38 | 744 | $30,046.44 | $30,075.24 |
+$1,737.24 (+6.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.1h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $40.54 | 741 | $30,040.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 1:40pm ET | $41.06 | 741 | $30,421.76 | $30,456.85 |
+$381.61 (+1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.2h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $42.42 | 717 | $30,415.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 11:10am ET | $41.45 | 717 | $29,719.65 | $29,761.36 |
$-695.49 (-2.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.7h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$29,761.36
Net Profit/Loss:
+$19,761.36
Total Return:
+197.61%