Compendium › Trent Follower › BTCUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
BTCUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Trent Follower's Analysis

2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-25 02:45:00+00 • 47 trades executed

-3.49%
2 Years Return
$7,751.97
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$7,751.54
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:46:35

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

2
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.7/10
Raw Quality 2.9/100
× Confidence 0.86 = 2.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,562
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
732 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$7,751.54
Current Value
$7,751.97
Total P&L
$-270.79
Max Drawdown
-23.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
25
Winners / Losers
12 / 13
Best Trade
+5.04%
Worst Trade
-2.89%
Avg Trade Return
+0.38%
Avg Hold Time
4.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$399,722.20
Estimated Fees
$999.31
Gross P&L
$-270.79
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,270.10
Gross Return
-3.49%
Net Return (after fees)
-16.39%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 732 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $7,751.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2024 9:30pm ET $72,793.69 0 $7,751.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2024 1:55am ET $74,274.20 0 $7,909.20 $7,870.05 +$118.50
(+2.0%) 		TREND_BREAK
4.4h held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2024 9:30am ET $90,956.81 0 $7,870.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2024 2:00pm ET $92,328.86 0 $7,988.76 $7,949.12 +$79.07
(+1.5%) 		TREND_BREAK
4.5h held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2024 10:00pm ET $102,290.00 0 $7,949.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2024 1:10am ET $102,000.00 0 $7,926.58 $7,886.89 $-62.23
(-0.3%) 		TREND_BREAK
3.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2025 1:45am ET $106,042.80 0 $7,886.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2025 5:50am ET $107,883.70 0 $8,023.81 $7,984.03 +$97.14
(+1.7%) 		TREND_BREAK
4.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2025 9:45am ET $105,947.54 0 $7,984.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2025 1:40pm ET $105,223.38 0 $7,929.46 $7,889.68 $-94.36
(-0.7%) 		TREND_BREAK
3.9h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 10:25am ET $98,506.28 0 $7,889.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2025 6:30pm ET $101,566.61 0 $8,134.79 $8,094.73 +$205.05
(+3.1%) 		TREND_BREAK
8.1h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2025 10:20am ET $83,998.00 0 $8,094.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2025 1:15pm ET $83,330.88 0 $8,030.44 $7,990.12 $-104.60
(-0.8%) 		TREND_BREAK
2.9h held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2025 11:15am ET $89,500.00 0 $7,990.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2025 6:30pm ET $94,012.85 0 $8,393.01 $8,352.05 +$361.93
(+5.0%) 		TREND_BREAK
7.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2025 1:55pm ET $86,747.95 0 $8,352.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2025 5:50pm ET $87,600.11 0 $8,434.10 $8,392.13 +$40.08
(+1.0%) 		TREND_BREAK
3.9h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET $79,539.86 0 $8,392.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 12:40pm ET $77,879.16 0 $8,216.91 $8,175.39 $-216.74
(-2.1%) 		TREND_BREAK
2.5h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2025 1:20pm ET $80,737.86 0 $8,175.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 7:20pm ET $82,773.22 0 $8,381.49 $8,340.10 +$164.71
(+2.5%) 		TREND_BREAK
6h held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2025 11:05am ET $116,565.76 0 $8,340.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2025 3:25pm ET $116,737.84 0 $8,352.41 $8,310.68 $-29.42
(+0.1%) 		TREND_BREAK
4.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Oct 21, 2025 11:05am ET $112,612.01 0 $8,310.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 21, 2025 1:55pm ET $112,059.28 0 $8,269.89 $8,228.43 $-82.24
(-0.5%) 		TREND_BREAK
2.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 10:10am ET $90,640.60 0 $8,228.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 3:10pm ET $91,570.50 0 $8,312.85 $8,271.50 +$43.06
(+1.0%) 		TREND_BREAK
5h held
15 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 11:40am ET $94,239.30 0 $8,271.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2025 2:40pm ET $93,710.90 0 $8,225.12 $8,183.88 $-87.62
(-0.6%) 		TREND_BREAK
3h held
16 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 10:10am ET $90,189.20 0 $8,183.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 10:50am ET $87,580.50 0 $7,947.16 $7,906.83 $-277.04
(-2.9%) 		TREND_BREAK
42m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 8:45pm ET $65,340.80 0 $7,906.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:50pm ET $63,864.96 0 $7,728.24 $7,689.16 $-217.68
(-2.3%) 		TREND_BREAK
2.1h held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:15am ET $69,600.29 0 $7,689.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 3:40pm ET $70,218.82 0 $7,757.49 $7,718.87 +$29.72
(+0.9%) 		TREND_BREAK
4.4h held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 10:15am ET $68,317.40 0 $7,718.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 1:55pm ET $68,973.30 0 $7,792.98 $7,792.98 +$35.33
(+1.0%) 		TREND_BREAK
3.7h held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 3:50am ET $70,738.80 0 $7,792.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 7:10am ET $70,943.60 0 $7,815.54 $7,815.54 $-16.46
(+0.3%) 		TREND_BREAK
3.3h held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:10am ET $71,222.00 0 $7,815.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 11:30am ET $70,870.00 0 $7,776.91 $7,776.91 $-77.61
(-0.5%) 		TREND_BREAK
4.3h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 7:30pm ET $72,453.10 0 $7,776.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:05pm ET $71,472.70 0 $7,671.68 $7,671.68 $-143.85
(-1.4%) 		TREND_BREAK
2.6h held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 11:25am ET $67,146.60 0 $7,671.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 3:15pm ET $68,156.50 0 $7,787.06 $7,787.06 +$76.74
(+1.5%) 		TREND_BREAK
3.8h held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 4:55am ET $78,634.10 0 $7,787.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 7:20am ET $77,426.90 0 $7,667.51 $7,667.51 $-158.18
(-1.5%) 		TREND_BREAK
2.4h held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 5:40am ET $84,890.50 0 $7,667.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 1:50pm ET $85,825.60 0 $7,751.97 $7,751.97 +$45.91
(+1.1%) 		TREND_BREAK
8.2h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,751.97
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,248.03
Total Return: -22.48%
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