Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:19:41

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

1
Lifetime
Confidence: 58%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.0/10
Raw Quality 2.0/100
× Confidence 0.58 = 1.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (58%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
70,072
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,957.76
Current Value
$9,898.21
Total P&L
$-59.55
Max Drawdown
-4.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
12
Winners / Losers
4 / 8
Best Trade
+4.11%
Worst Trade
-1.88%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
5.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$225,529.94
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-59.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$-59.55
Gross Return
-0.60%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.60%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $9,957.76 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 9:30am ET $370.53 26 $9,633.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 12:15pm ET $364.08 26 $9,466.10 $9,790.21 $-167.55
(-1.7%)
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2025 1:15pm ET $374.33 26 $9,732.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 10:05am ET $379.63 26 $9,870.38 $9,928.01 +$137.80
(+1.4%)
TREND_BREAK
20.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2025 9:30am ET $377.76 26 $9,821.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2025 12:45pm ET $374.95 26 $9,748.70 $9,854.95 $-73.06
(-0.7%)
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held
4 🟢 BUY May 1, 2025 9:30am ET $435.78 22 $9,587.16 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 1:30pm ET $429.20 22 $9,442.29 $9,710.08 $-144.87
(-1.5%)
TREND_BREAK
4h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2025 9:30am ET $544.62 17 $9,258.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2025 1:15pm ET $535.04 17 $9,095.68 $9,547.22 $-162.86
(-1.8%)
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $384.69 24 $9,232.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 1:20pm ET $377.46 24 $9,059.07 $9,373.73 $-173.49
(-1.9%)
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held
7 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 10:55am ET $425.84 22 $9,368.50 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 3:00pm ET $424.82 22 $9,346.03 $9,351.26 $-22.47
(-0.2%)
TREND_BREAK
4.1h held
8 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 10:05am ET $427.57 21 $8,978.97 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 3:50pm ET $425.69 21 $8,939.49 $9,311.78 $-39.48
(-0.4%)
TREND_BREAK
5.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $464.57 20 $9,291.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 1:20pm ET $459.79 20 $9,195.77 $9,216.25 $-95.53
(-1.0%)
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 10:25am ET $367.07 25 $9,176.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 2:50pm ET $369.98 25 $9,249.46 $9,288.96 +$72.71
(+0.8%)
TREND_BREAK
4.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $436.88 21 $9,174.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 3:50pm ET $454.82 21 $9,551.22 $9,665.81 +$376.85
(+4.1%)
TREND_BREAK
6.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $476.93 20 $9,538.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 3:50pm ET $488.55 20 $9,771.00 $9,898.21 +$232.40
(+2.4%)
TREND_BREAK
6.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,898.21
Net Profit/Loss: $-101.79
Total Return: -1.02%
Back to Trent Follower