SPXU Trent Follower's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 47 trades executed
-44.33%
2 Years Return
$5,979.35
Current Value
28%
Win Rate
$10,740.14
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
2
Lifetime
Confidence: 85%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
1.9/10
Raw Quality
1.9/100
× Confidence 0.85
= 1.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (85%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
35,967
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
520 days
Data Gaps
13 days with gaps
Data Gap Notice
The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.
2024-11-14 (18 candles), 2024-11-29 (no data), 2024-12-18 (37 candles), 2024-12-24 (30 candles), 2025-04-25 (14 candles), 2025-04-30 (37 candles), 2025-05-19 (34 candles), 2025-06-09 (38 candles), 2025-07-03 (24 candles), 2025-09-16 (36 candles), 2025-10-21 (28 candles), 2025-10-28 (38 candles), 2025-11-28 (no data)
Market Closed (22 days)
2024-11-11 — Veterans Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth ... and 2 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,740.14
Current Value
$5,979.35
Total P&L
$-4,760.79
Max Drawdown
-32.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.61
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
39
Winners / Losers
11 /
28
Best Trade
+3.79%
Worst Trade
-8.67%
Avg Trade Return
-1.47%
Avg Hold Time
1.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$629,635.03
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,760.79
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,760.79
Gross Return
-44.33%
Net Return (after fees)
-44.33%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 520 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $10,740.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2024 2:00pm ET | $96.82 | 110 | $10,650.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 25, 2024 9:35am ET | $93.68 | 110 | $10,304.80 | $10,394.70 |
$-345.44 (-3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2024 9:40am ET | $97.40 | 106 | $10,324.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2024 9:35am ET | $98.72 | 106 | $10,464.83 | $10,535.17 |
+$140.47 (+1.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
5d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 15, 2024 9:35am ET | $92.82 | 113 | $10,488.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2024 2:20pm ET | $91.00 | 113 | $10,282.95 | $10,329.46 |
$-205.71 (-2.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2024 9:45am ET | $87.34 | 118 | $10,306.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 20, 2024 9:45am ET | $88.82 | 118 | $10,480.76 | $10,504.10 |
+$174.64 (+1.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
2d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2024 12:10pm ET | $89.24 | 117 | $10,441.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 3, 2025 9:40am ET | $87.39 | 117 | $10,224.86 | $10,287.89 |
$-216.22 (-2.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 10, 2025 12:55pm ET | $92.42 | 111 | $10,258.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2025 3:55pm ET | $92.48 | 111 | $10,265.28 | $10,294.55 |
+$6.66 (+0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2025 9:35am ET | $85.02 | 121 | $10,286.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2025 12:30pm ET | $82.74 | 121 | $10,011.54 | $10,019.15 |
$-275.40 (-2.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 9:55am ET | $87.82 | 114 | $10,011.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2025 11:05am ET | $83.94 | 114 | $9,569.16 | $9,576.83 |
$-442.32 (-4.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 21, 2025 2:00pm ET | $84.40 | 113 | $9,537.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2025 10:50am ET | $85.54 | 113 | $9,666.07 | $9,705.70 |
+$128.87 (+1.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 10:15am ET | $97.40 | 99 | $9,642.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2025 2:05pm ET | $92.00 | 99 | $9,108.00 | $9,171.10 |
$-534.60 (-5.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.2d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2025 10:45am ET | $106.08 | 86 | $9,122.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2025 12:45pm ET | $103.56 | 86 | $8,906.16 | $8,954.34 |
$-216.75 (-2.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2025 9:35am ET | $98.85 | 90 | $8,896.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 3:15pm ET | $102.60 | 90 | $9,234.00 | $9,291.59 |
+$337.25 (+3.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 2:40pm ET | $133.80 | 69 | $9,232.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $122.20 | 69 | $8,431.58 | $8,490.97 |
$-800.62 (-8.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $106.68 | 79 | $8,427.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2025 2:05pm ET | $108.00 | 79 | $8,532.00 | $8,595.25 |
+$104.28 (+1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2025 9:40am ET | $91.98 | 93 | $8,554.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 2:20pm ET | $89.84 | 93 | $8,355.19 | $8,396.30 |
$-198.95 (-2.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.7h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2025 10:20am ET | $80.02 | 104 | $8,322.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2025 9:35am ET | $77.84 | 104 | $8,095.36 | $8,169.58 |
$-226.72 (-2.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
6d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2025 10:15am ET | $66.48 | 122 | $8,110.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2025 11:55am ET | $64.12 | 122 | $7,822.64 | $7,881.61 |
$-287.97 (-3.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2025 9:55am ET | $62.77 | 125 | $7,846.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2025 9:55am ET | $62.02 | 125 | $7,752.50 | $7,787.36 |
$-94.25 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2025 9:40am ET | $62.49 | 124 | $7,749.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2025 11:10am ET | $60.64 | 124 | $7,519.36 | $7,557.37 |
$-230.00 (-3.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:20am ET | $55.14 | 137 | $7,554.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 1:00pm ET | $54.48 | 137 | $7,463.71 | $7,466.89 |
$-90.47 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 9:40am ET | $52.21 | 143 | $7,465.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $50.96 | 143 | $7,287.22 | $7,288.37 |
$-178.52 (-2.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
23.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $52.70 | 138 | $7,272.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 12:05pm ET | $54.28 | 138 | $7,490.64 | $7,506.41 |
+$218.04 (+3.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 11:00am ET | $51.21 | 146 | $7,476.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 1:15pm ET | $50.51 | 146 | $7,374.46 | $7,404.21 |
$-102.20 (-1.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.82 | 148 | $7,372.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.45 | 148 | $7,466.60 | $7,498.12 |
+$93.91 (+1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $48.98 | 153 | $7,493.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 12:30pm ET | $48.03 | 153 | $7,348.59 | $7,352.77 |
$-145.35 (-1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $51.18 | 143 | $7,318.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 12:35pm ET | $50.21 | 143 | $7,180.03 | $7,214.06 |
$-138.71 (-1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.67 | 139 | $7,182.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 12:25pm ET | $51.03 | 139 | $7,093.17 | $7,125.10 |
$-88.96 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.9h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $52.70 | 135 | $7,114.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 1:10pm ET | $51.67 | 135 | $6,975.45 | $6,986.05 |
$-139.05 (-2.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.42 | 123 | $6,939.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 1:50pm ET | $56.02 | 123 | $6,890.46 | $6,936.85 |
$-49.20 (-0.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $59.78 | 116 | $6,934.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.91 | 116 | $6,949.56 | $6,951.93 |
+$15.08 (+0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.63 | 120 | $6,915.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $55.35 | 120 | $6,642.00 | $6,678.33 |
$-273.60 (-4.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $38.70 | 172 | $6,656.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 1:10pm ET | $38.44 | 172 | $6,611.68 | $6,633.61 |
$-44.72 (-0.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $37.46 | 177 | $6,630.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.23 | 177 | $6,766.71 | $6,769.92 |
+$136.31 (+2.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $40.20 | 168 | $6,753.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 2:10pm ET | $39.85 | 168 | $6,693.96 | $6,710.28 |
$-59.64 (-0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $38.74 | 173 | $6,702.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.22 | 173 | $6,439.04 | $6,447.30 |
$-262.98 (-3.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
17.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $39.45 | 163 | $6,430.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 1:15pm ET | $38.82 | 163 | $6,327.66 | $6,344.61 |
$-102.69 (-1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.09 | 166 | $6,322.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 12:40pm ET | $37.34 | 166 | $6,198.44 | $6,220.11 |
$-124.50 (-2.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.2h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $38.24 | 162 | $6,195.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $38.56 | 162 | $6,247.53 | $6,272.57 |
+$52.46 (+0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 3:20pm ET | $37.02 | 169 | $6,256.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.28 | 169 | $5,963.16 | $5,979.35 |
$-293.22 (-4.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
18.2h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,979.35
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,020.65
Total Return:
-40.21%