VXX Victor Calm Spike's Analysis
2024-01-02 09:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 13:45:00+00 • 28 trades executed
+73.77%
2 Years Return
$17,376.78
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
62.8 neutral
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+8.3%
EMA20 Dist
+8.3%
ATR%
4.8%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
1.8×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 2, 2026
35
Lifetime
Confidence: 53%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.6/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
4.9/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
65.9/100
× Confidence 0.53
= 34.8
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (53%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
70,583
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$17,376.78
Total P&L
$7,376.78
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.35
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
28
Winners / Losers
14 /
14
Best Trade
+10.60%
Worst Trade
-4.50%
Avg Trade Return
+2.19%
Avg Hold Time
6.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$716,270.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$7,376.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$7,376.78
Gross Return
+73.77%
Net Return (after fees)
+73.77%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VXX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Calm Spike had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2024 2:55pm ET | $52.49 | 190 | $9,973.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2024 10:50am ET | $56.69 | 190 | $10,771.10 | $10,798.00 |
+$798.00 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 1, 2024 3:30pm ET | $56.69 | 190 | $10,771.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2024 11:05am ET | $54.39 | 190 | $10,334.10 | $10,361.00 |
$-437.00 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2024 9:30am ET | $46.32 | 223 | $10,329.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2024 9:30am ET | $44.28 | 223 | $9,874.44 | $9,905.86 |
$-455.14 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2024 12:55pm ET | $45.63 | 217 | $9,901.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2024 12:00pm ET | $43.74 | 217 | $9,491.58 | $9,495.73 |
$-410.13 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2024 12:30pm ET | $43.55 | 218 | $9,493.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 15, 2024 12:30pm ET | $47.17 | 218 | $10,283.06 | $10,284.89 |
+$789.16 (+8.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2024 1:25pm ET | $44.46 | 231 | $10,270.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2024 9:55am ET | $48.09 | 231 | $11,108.79 | $11,123.56 |
+$838.67 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2024 3:35pm ET | $47.84 | 232 | $11,098.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 22, 2024 3:50pm ET | $45.84 | 232 | $10,634.88 | $10,659.56 |
$-464.00 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2024 12:55pm ET | $43.34 | 245 | $10,618.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2024 9:30am ET | $41.39 | 245 | $10,140.65 | $10,181.90 |
$-477.65 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2024 9:35am ET | $42.67 | 238 | $10,155.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 2:50pm ET | $46.35 | 238 | $11,031.30 | $11,057.74 |
+$875.84 (+8.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2025 9:40am ET | $43.91 | 251 | $11,022.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2025 9:35am ET | $47.62 | 251 | $11,952.62 | $11,987.95 |
+$930.21 (+8.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 10, 2025 9:45am ET | $48.71 | 246 | $11,982.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2025 10:15am ET | $46.73 | 246 | $11,495.58 | $11,500.87 |
$-487.08 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2025 12:50pm ET | $44.71 | 257 | $11,490.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2025 9:45am ET | $42.78 | 257 | $10,994.46 | $11,004.86 |
$-496.01 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2025 11:00am ET | $42.57 | 258 | $10,983.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 10:15am ET | $45.99 | 258 | $11,865.42 | $11,887.22 |
+$882.36 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2025 3:00pm ET | $43.14 | 275 | $11,863.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $46.60 | 275 | $12,815.00 | $12,838.72 |
+$951.50 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2025 12:15pm ET | $43.86 | 292 | $12,807.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2025 3:55pm ET | $42.10 | 292 | $12,293.20 | $12,324.80 |
$-513.92 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 14, 2025 3:55pm ET | $41.96 | 293 | $12,294.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $45.34 | 293 | $13,284.62 | $13,315.14 |
+$990.34 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $43.50 | 306 | $13,311.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $48.11 | 306 | $14,721.66 | $14,725.80 |
+$1,410.66 (+10.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 3, 2025 12:50pm ET | $47.44 | 310 | $14,705.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2025 9:45am ET | $45.54 | 310 | $14,117.40 | $14,137.57 |
$-588.23 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2025 9:35am ET | $43.98 | 321 | $14,115.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2025 2:25pm ET | $42.20 | 321 | $13,544.60 | $13,566.19 |
$-571.38 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $41.48 | 327 | $13,563.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.87 | 327 | $14,672.49 | $14,674.72 |
+$1,108.53 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2025 11:40am ET | $36.06 | 406 | $14,640.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 5, 2025 9:40am ET | $34.59 | 406 | $14,043.54 | $14,077.90 |
$-596.82 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2025 3:10pm ET | $33.86 | 415 | $14,051.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 3:10pm ET | $33.20 | 415 | $13,775.93 | $13,801.93 |
$-275.98 (-2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 3:50pm ET | $33.17 | 416 | $13,796.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:25am ET | $35.85 | 416 | $14,913.60 | $14,918.89 |
+$1,116.96 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $32.10 | 464 | $14,892.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 10:30am ET | $34.67 | 464 | $16,086.88 | $16,113.69 |
+$1,194.80 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 12:00pm ET | $27.08 | 595 | $16,112.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.91 | 595 | $15,416.45 | $15,417.54 |
$-696.15 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $26.13 | 590 | $15,416.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $28.26 | 590 | $16,673.40 | $16,674.65 |
+$1,257.11 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 2:35pm ET | $26.13 | 638 | $16,667.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $28.41 | 638 | $18,125.58 | $18,132.48 |
+$1,457.83 (+8.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:50pm ET | $27.45 | 660 | $18,117.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:15am ET | $26.31 | 660 | $17,361.30 | $17,376.78 |
$-755.70 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$17,376.78
Net Profit/Loss:
+$7,376.78
Total Return:
+73.77%