Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-21 15:59:51

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
71.5 overbought
20d Trend
+9.1%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
+4.3%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
90%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

45
Lifetime
Confidence: 65%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
31.7/35
Total Return
13.8/25
Win Rate
11.3/15
Profit Factor
5.9/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 69.1/100
× Confidence 0.65 = 45.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (65%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,334
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
130 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,598.31
Current Value
$14,529.21
Period P&L
$2,930.90
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.63

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
5 / 2
Best Trade
+10.70%
Worst Trade
-4.33%
Avg Trade Return
+3.49%
Avg Hold Time
17.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$197,654.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,930.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,930.90
Gross Return
+25.27%
Net Return (after fees)
+25.27%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CVX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 130 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Steep Curve had $11,598.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 3:55pm ET $147.72 78 $11,522.16
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $163.53 78 $12,755.33 $12,787.03 +$1,233.17
(+10.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
17.7d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 2:20pm ET $157.14 81 $12,728.34
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 2:20pm ET $168.61 81 $13,657.01 $13,715.69 +$928.67
(+7.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 2:30pm ET $169.08 81 $13,695.48
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 2:55pm ET $182.62 81 $14,792.22 $14,812.43 +$1,096.74
(+8.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
12d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET $186.01 79 $14,695.18
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 10:30am ET $195.74 79 $15,463.46 $15,580.71 +$768.28
(+5.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $199.40 78 $15,553.20
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $191.37 78 $14,926.47 $14,953.98 $-626.73
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 2:00pm ET $187.94 79 $14,847.26
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET $179.80 79 $14,204.20 $14,310.92 $-643.06
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $185.69 77 $14,298.13
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $188.52 77 $14,516.42 $14,529.21 +$218.29
(+1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,529.21
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,529.21
Total Return: +45.29%
Back to Victor Steep Curve