Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:38:17

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 57%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
10.1/35
Total Return
9.9/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 26.3/100
× Confidence 0.57 = 14.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (57%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
35,915
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
519 days
Data Gaps
13 days with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2024-11-14 (18 candles), 2024-11-29 (no data), 2024-12-18 (37 candles), 2024-12-24 (30 candles), 2025-04-25 (14 candles), 2025-04-30 (37 candles), 2025-05-19 (34 candles), 2025-06-09 (38 candles), 2025-07-03 (24 candles), 2025-09-16 (36 candles), 2025-10-21 (28 candles), 2025-10-28 (38 candles), 2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (22 days)

2024-11-11 — Veterans Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth ... and 2 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,392.30
Current Value
$11,439.28
Total P&L
$1,046.99
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
12
Winners / Losers
5 / 7
Best Trade
+9.42%
Worst Trade
-5.38%
Avg Trade Return
+1.01%
Avg Hold Time
4.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$268,238.05
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,046.99
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,046.99
Gross Return
+10.07%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.07%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 519 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Trend Rider had $10,392.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2024 10:30am ET $89.95 115 $10,344.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2024 10:45am ET $86.24 115 $9,917.60 $9,965.42 $-426.88
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2025 10:10am ET $90.07 110 $9,907.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 17, 2025 9:30am ET $85.88 110 $9,446.80 $9,504.52 $-460.90
(-4.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 21, 2025 2:25pm ET $85.00 111 $9,435.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2025 12:45pm ET $92.12 111 $10,225.32 $10,294.84 +$790.32
(+8.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 7, 2025 10:30am ET $98.84 104 $10,279.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2025 10:35am ET $106.88 104 $11,115.52 $11,131.00 +$836.16
(+8.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 28, 2025 10:15am ET $101.44 109 $11,056.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 10:10am ET $110.86 109 $12,083.74 $12,157.78 +$1,026.78
(+9.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2025 1:35pm ET $115.28 105 $12,104.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 2:10pm ET $109.08 105 $11,453.40 $11,506.78 $-651.00
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2025 9:45am ET $107.40 107 $11,491.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2025 10:15am ET $117.52 107 $12,574.64 $12,589.62 +$1,082.84
(+9.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
8 🟢 BUY May 21, 2025 11:20am ET $80.96 155 $12,548.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2025 9:45am ET $77.68 155 $12,040.40 $12,081.22 $-508.40
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2025 12:50pm ET $66.54 181 $12,043.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2025 9:35am ET $63.48 181 $11,489.81 $11,527.29 $-553.93
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 3:55pm ET $57.38 200 $11,476.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 13, 2025 10:05am ET $54.88 200 $10,976.00 $11,026.81 $-500.48
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 10:15am ET $53.06 207 $10,983.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 10:35am ET $57.43 207 $11,888.01 $11,930.98 +$904.18
(+8.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $40.01 298 $11,922.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 1:00pm ET $38.36 298 $11,431.28 $11,439.28 $-491.70
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,439.28
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,439.28
Total Return: +14.39%
Back to Victor Trend Rider