IBM Victor Volume's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 30 trades in period
-28.61%
Last Year Return
$10,846.45
Current Value
37%
Win Rate
$15,193.82
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
16
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.8/35
Total Return
8.1/25
Win Rate
2.7/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
18.2/100
× Confidence 0.90
= 16.5
30-Day Momentum
10
+2.9%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 16.6
Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
23,403
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$15,193.82
Current Value
$10,846.45
Period P&L
$-4,347.37
Max Drawdown
-16.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
11 /
19
Best Trade
+9.19%
Worst Trade
-24.52%
Avg Trade Return
-0.81%
Avg Hold Time
7.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$839,941.04
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,347.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,347.37
Gross Return
-28.61%
Net Return (after fees)
-28.61%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Volume had $15,193.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2025 3:50pm ET | $266.86 | 55 | $14,677.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 1:15pm ET | $288.30 | 55 | $15,856.50 | $16,082.08 |
+$1,179.20 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 1:15pm ET | $281.83 | 57 | $16,064.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 1:15pm ET | $283.40 | 57 | $16,153.80 | $16,171.57 |
+$89.49 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 3:50pm ET | $282.36 | 57 | $16,094.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 11:40am ET | $305.04 | 57 | $17,387.16 | $17,464.50 |
+$1,292.93 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 1:35pm ET | $309.84 | 56 | $17,351.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $296.42 | 56 | $16,599.24 | $16,712.70 |
$-751.80 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 1:20pm ET | $304.15 | 54 | $16,424.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 10:00am ET | $291.56 | 54 | $15,744.24 | $16,032.84 |
$-679.86 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 1:45pm ET | $290.14 | 55 | $15,957.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 9:35am ET | $314.68 | 55 | $17,307.40 | $17,382.54 |
+$1,349.70 (+8.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 3:50pm ET | $311.19 | 55 | $17,115.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 9:40am ET | $298.12 | 55 | $16,396.79 | $16,663.87 |
$-718.66 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.7d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 3:45pm ET | $301.38 | 55 | $16,575.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 1:05pm ET | $289.26 | 55 | $15,909.30 | $15,997.27 |
$-666.60 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 12:40pm ET | $299.21 | 53 | $15,857.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $293.73 | 53 | $15,567.85 | $15,707.26 |
$-290.02 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 1:40pm ET | $295.41 | 53 | $15,656.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $283.43 | 53 | $15,021.79 | $15,072.22 |
$-635.04 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $288.86 | 52 | $15,020.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $294.26 | 52 | $15,301.26 | $15,353.01 |
+$280.80 (+1.9%) |
📅 Sim Ended
5.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $260.23 | 58 | $15,093.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 10:20am ET | $249.75 | 58 | $14,485.51 | $14,745.18 |
$-607.83 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $241.85 | 60 | $14,511.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:30am ET | $250.01 | 60 | $15,000.60 | $15,234.78 |
+$489.60 (+3.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 2:30pm ET | $241.17 | 63 | $15,193.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $231.16 | 63 | $14,563.08 | $14,604.15 |
$-630.63 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 12:45pm ET | $229.99 | 63 | $14,489.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 10:50am ET | $220.52 | 63 | $13,892.76 | $14,007.54 |
$-596.61 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 2:15pm ET | $223.41 | 62 | $13,851.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $241.77 | 62 | $14,989.74 | $15,146.01 |
+$1,138.47 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 1:05pm ET | $326.28 | 46 | $15,009.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $311.63 | 46 | $14,334.98 | $14,471.93 |
$-674.08 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $301.85 | 47 | $14,186.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $289.19 | 47 | $13,591.93 | $13,876.91 |
$-595.02 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $265.33 | 52 | $13,797.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $250.46 | 52 | $13,023.92 | $13,103.66 |
$-773.25 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 1:45pm ET | $256.93 | 51 | $13,103.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:55am ET | $277.72 | 51 | $14,163.72 | $14,163.95 |
+$1,060.29 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 1:40pm ET | $280.24 | 50 | $14,012.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $305.99 | 50 | $15,299.50 | $15,451.45 |
+$1,287.50 (+9.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 3:45pm ET | $288.61 | 53 | $15,296.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $217.85 | 53 | $11,546.05 | $11,701.17 |
$-3,750.28 (-24.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $223.20 | 52 | $11,606.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $214.26 | 52 | $11,141.51 | $11,236.29 |
$-464.88 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 3:50pm ET | $219.50 | 51 | $11,194.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 11:20am ET | $210.52 | 51 | $10,736.52 | $10,778.31 |
$-457.98 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 12:00pm ET | $213.40 | 50 | $10,670.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $202.01 | 50 | $10,100.25 | $10,208.56 |
$-569.75 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $209.87 | 48 | $10,073.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 12:40pm ET | $227.50 | 48 | $10,919.99 | $11,055.03 |
+$846.47 (+8.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 2:00pm ET | $228.82 | 48 | $10,983.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:05am ET | $218.17 | 48 | $10,472.16 | $10,543.83 |
$-511.20 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 3:25pm ET | $236.90 | 44 | $10,423.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 3:25pm ET | $235.47 | 44 | $10,360.68 | $10,481.13 |
$-62.70 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.80 | 45 | $10,431.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 12:10pm ET | $250.51 | 45 | $11,273.17 | $11,323.23 |
+$842.10 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 12:30pm ET | $250.62 | 45 | $11,277.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $240.02 | 45 | $10,800.90 | $10,846.45 |
$-476.78 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,846.45
Net Profit/Loss:
+$846.45
Total Return:
+8.46%