Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 04:33:23

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

34
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
10.6/35
Total Return
16.0/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 37.1/100
× Confidence 0.91 = 33.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$17,886.70
Current Value
$18,340.63
Period P&L
$453.91
Max Drawdown
-27.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
2 / 3
Best Trade
+8.16%
Worst Trade
-4.64%
Avg Trade Return
+0.66%
Avg Hold Time
7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$172,212.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$453.91
Net P&L (after fees)
$453.91
Gross Return
+2.54%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.54%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Volume had $17,886.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $917.48 19 $17,432.12
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 3:45pm ET $878.51 19 $16,691.69 $17,146.29 $-740.43
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 3:30pm ET $956.82 17 $16,265.94
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 2:50pm ET $918.05 17 $15,606.85 $16,487.20 $-659.09
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
3 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 2:55pm ET $967.73 17 $16,451.41
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 3:50pm ET $1,046.68 17 $17,793.56 $17,829.35 +$1,342.15
(+8.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
17d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 1:55pm ET $1,065.58 16 $17,049.36
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $1,151.72 16 $18,427.52 $19,207.51 +$1,378.16
(+8.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $1,167.52 16 $18,680.32
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $1,113.34 16 $17,813.44 $18,340.63 $-866.88
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,340.63
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,340.63
Total Return: +83.41%
Back to Victor Volume