ETHUSD Victor Volume's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 35 trades in period
-18.33%
Last 6 Months Return
$1,597.27
Current Value
37%
Win Rate
$1,526.91
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.2 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-40.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.3%
ATR%
13.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.3/10
Raw Quality
3.3/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 3.3
30-Day Momentum
36
+12.8%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 58.9
Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+33 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
53,046
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
185 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$1,526.91
Current Value
$1,597.27
Period P&L
$-279.96
Max Drawdown
-89.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
13 /
22
Best Trade
+8.86%
Worst Trade
-5.16%
Avg Trade Return
+0.19%
Avg Hold Time
4.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$95,135.53
Estimated Fees
$237.84
Gross P&L
$-279.96
Net P&L (after fees)
$-517.80
Gross Return
-18.33%
Net Return (after fees)
-33.91%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 185 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Volume had $1,526.91 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 22, 2026 1:45pm ET | $2,079.29 | 1 | $1,588.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 6:55am ET | $1,991.07 | 1 | $1,521.15 | $1,521.15 |
$-75.17 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:35am ET | $1,978.19 | 1 | $1,521.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 2:15am ET | $2,137.89 | 1 | $1,643.95 | $1,643.95 |
+$114.89 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.7d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 8:40pm ET | $2,152.20 | 1 | $1,643.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:45pm ET | $2,065.65 | 1 | $1,577.84 | $1,577.84 |
$-74.17 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $2,020.92 | 1 | $1,577.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 6:40pm ET | $2,183.57 | 1 | $1,704.83 | $1,704.83 |
+$118.78 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.4d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:35pm ET | $2,197.76 | 1 | $1,704.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 7:30pm ET | $2,388.00 | 1 | $1,852.40 | $1,852.40 |
+$138.68 (+8.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:30am ET | $2,406.84 | 1 | $1,852.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:25pm ET | $2,306.00 | 1 | $1,774.79 | $1,774.79 |
$-86.68 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 3:30pm ET | $2,367.96 | 1 | $1,774.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 19, 2026 6:05pm ET | $2,258.87 | 1 | $1,693.03 | $1,693.03 |
$-90.43 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $2,324.11 | 1 | $1,693.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:30pm ET | $2,223.40 | 1 | $1,619.67 | $1,619.67 |
$-81.65 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 11:20pm ET | $2,285.35 | 1 | $1,619.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 16, 2026 3:15am ET | $2,190.71 | 1 | $1,552.60 | $1,552.60 |
$-75.00 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 16, 2026 8:00pm ET | $2,181.48 | 1 | $1,552.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 12:30pm ET | $2,091.86 | 1 | $1,488.82 | $1,488.82 |
$-71.39 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 3:35pm ET | $2,108.00 | 1 | $1,488.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2026 3:50am ET | $2,015.70 | 1 | $1,423.63 | $1,423.63 |
$-72.47 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.5d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2026 9:00am ET | $2,032.96 | 1 | $1,423.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $1,941.80 | 1 | $1,359.79 | $1,359.79 |
$-70.80 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:00pm ET | $1,913.91 | 1 | $1,359.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 11:30pm ET | $1,835.61 | 1 | $1,304.16 | $1,304.16 |
$-62.29 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.5h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 1:00am ET | $1,860.98 | 1 | $1,304.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 4:45pm ET | $1,786.33 | 1 | $1,251.85 | $1,251.85 |
$-58.70 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 4:55pm ET | $1,779.27 | 1 | $1,251.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 1:40am ET | $1,698.13 | 1 | $1,194.76 | $1,194.76 |
$-63.20 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:30am ET | $1,645.12 | 1 | $1,194.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $1,577.14 | 1 | $1,145.39 | $1,145.39 |
$-55.22 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 12:10pm ET | $1,587.38 | 1 | $1,145.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2026 12:35am ET | $1,520.94 | 1 | $1,097.45 | $1,097.45 |
$-53.55 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $1,554.68 | 1 | $1,097.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 7, 2026 6:15pm ET | $1,688.36 | 1 | $1,191.81 | $1,191.81 |
+$88.64 (+8.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 7, 2026 11:10pm ET | $1,691.40 | 1 | $1,191.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $1,622.99 | 1 | $1,143.61 | $1,143.61 |
$-54.04 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 8:05am ET | $1,622.38 | 1 | $1,143.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 7:25am ET | $1,754.54 | 1 | $1,236.77 | $1,236.77 |
+$87.21 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 3:10pm ET | $1,831.69 | 1 | $1,236.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 8:25am ET | $1,745.17 | 1 | $1,178.35 | $1,178.35 |
$-64.46 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 8:35am ET | $1,749.08 | 1 | $1,178.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 1:25pm ET | $1,671.62 | 1 | $1,126.17 | $1,126.17 |
$-57.95 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 19, 2026 5:25am ET | $1,691.54 | 1 | $1,126.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 11:45am ET | $1,620.22 | 1 | $1,078.69 | $1,078.69 |
$-52.99 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 6:00pm ET | $1,619.52 | 1 | $1,078.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,536.00 | 1 | $1,023.06 | $1,023.06 |
$-60.88 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.9h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 11:45am ET | $1,557.97 | 1 | $1,023.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:20am ET | $1,683.62 | 1 | $1,105.57 | $1,105.57 |
+$77.19 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 6:00pm ET | $1,619.52 | 1 | $1,078.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 3, 2026 4:25pm ET | $1,749.77 | 1 | $1,165.44 | $1,192.32 |
+$81.14 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 5, 2026 5:55pm ET | $1,784.70 | 1 | $1,192.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 11:25am ET | $1,713.24 | 1 | $1,144.58 | $1,144.58 |
$-53.58 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 2:55pm ET | $1,783.76 | 1 | $1,144.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 8:50am ET | $1,927.23 | 1 | $1,236.64 | $1,236.64 |
+$86.11 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.7d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 9:00am ET | $1,935.81 | 1 | $1,236.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 7:20pm ET | $1,857.64 | 1 | $1,186.70 | $1,186.70 |
$-56.00 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 7:40pm ET | $1,861.48 | 1 | $1,186.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 7:40pm ET | $1,897.43 | 1 | $1,209.62 | $1,209.62 |
+$16.93 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 2:15am ET | $1,902.03 | 1 | $1,209.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 11:30am ET | $2,056.50 | 1 | $1,307.86 | $1,307.86 |
+$91.94 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.4d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 4:50pm ET | $2,192.28 | 1 | $1,307.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:50pm ET | $2,373.00 | 1 | $1,415.67 | $1,415.67 |
+$101.00 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:10pm ET | $2,414.45 | 1 | $1,415.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $2,628.38 | 1 | $1,541.10 | $1,541.10 |
+$118.04 (+8.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 2:45pm ET | $2,545.21 | 1 | $1,541.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $2,439.53 | 1 | $1,477.11 | $1,477.11 |
$-71.53 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 6:30pm ET | $2,395.54 | 1 | $1,477.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 11:25am ET | $2,590.41 | 1 | $1,597.27 | $1,597.27 |
+$112.47 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$1,597.27
Net Profit/Loss:
$-8,402.73
Total Return:
-84.03%