Compendium › Victor Volume › IBM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IBM
Alpaca Tradeable

Victor Volume's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 23 trades in period

-33.72%
Year to Date Return
$10,846.45
Current Value
30%
Win Rate
$16,363.57
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:09:21

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

16
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.8/35
Total Return
8.1/25
Win Rate
2.7/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 18.2/100
× Confidence 0.90 = 16.5

30-Day Momentum

10
+2.9%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 16.6 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,449
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$16,363.57
Current Value
$10,846.45
Period P&L
$-5,517.12
Max Drawdown
-16.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.22

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
7 / 16
Best Trade
+9.19%
Worst Trade
-24.52%
Avg Trade Return
-1.60%
Avg Hold Time
6.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$610,811.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-5,517.12
Net P&L (after fees)
$-5,517.12
Gross Return
-33.72%
Net Return (after fees)
-33.72%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Volume had $16,363.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 3:45pm ET $301.38 55 $16,575.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 1:05pm ET $289.26 55 $15,909.30 $15,997.27 $-666.60
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 12:40pm ET $299.21 53 $15,857.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $293.73 53 $15,567.85 $15,707.26 $-290.02
(-1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 1:40pm ET $295.41 53 $15,656.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $283.43 53 $15,021.79 $15,072.22 $-635.04
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $288.86 52 $15,020.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET $294.26 52 $15,301.26 $15,353.01 +$280.80
(+1.9%) 		📅 Sim Ended
5.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $260.23 58 $15,093.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 10:20am ET $249.75 58 $14,485.51 $14,745.18 $-607.83
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET $241.85 60 $14,511.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:30am ET $250.01 60 $15,000.60 $15,234.78 +$489.60
(+3.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 2:30pm ET $241.17 63 $15,193.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 2:10pm ET $231.16 63 $14,563.08 $14,604.15 $-630.63
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17d held
8 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 12:45pm ET $229.99 63 $14,489.37 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 10:50am ET $220.52 63 $13,892.76 $14,007.54 $-596.61
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
9 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 2:15pm ET $223.41 62 $13,851.27 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 10:40am ET $241.77 62 $14,989.74 $15,146.01 +$1,138.47
(+8.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 1:05pm ET $326.28 46 $15,009.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $311.63 46 $14,334.98 $14,471.93 $-674.08
(-4.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $301.85 47 $14,186.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:55am ET $289.19 47 $13,591.93 $13,876.91 $-595.02
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18h held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $265.33 52 $13,797.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET $250.46 52 $13,023.92 $13,103.66 $-773.25
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.4h held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 1:45pm ET $256.93 51 $13,103.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:55am ET $277.72 51 $14,163.72 $14,163.95 +$1,060.29
(+8.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 1:40pm ET $280.24 50 $14,012.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $305.99 50 $15,299.50 $15,451.45 +$1,287.50
(+9.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 3:45pm ET $288.61 53 $15,296.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $217.85 53 $11,546.05 $11,701.17 $-3,750.28
(-24.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $223.20 52 $11,606.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $214.26 52 $11,141.51 $11,236.29 $-464.88
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 3:50pm ET $219.50 51 $11,194.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 11:20am ET $210.52 51 $10,736.52 $10,778.31 $-457.98
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 12:00pm ET $213.40 50 $10,670.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $202.01 50 $10,100.25 $10,208.56 $-569.75
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET $209.87 48 $10,073.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 12:40pm ET $227.50 48 $10,919.99 $11,055.03 +$846.47
(+8.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 2:00pm ET $228.82 48 $10,983.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:05am ET $218.17 48 $10,472.16 $10,543.83 $-511.20
(-4.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 3:25pm ET $236.90 44 $10,423.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 3:25pm ET $235.47 44 $10,360.68 $10,481.13 $-62.70
(-0.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $231.80 45 $10,431.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 12:10pm ET $250.51 45 $11,273.17 $11,323.23 +$842.10
(+8.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
13.1d held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 12:30pm ET $250.62 45 $11,277.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $240.02 45 $10,800.90 $10,846.45 $-476.78
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,846.45
Net Profit/Loss: +$846.45
Total Return: +8.46%
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