Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
⚠️
Viewing Era 2 Data Only
This strategy crashed 1 time. "Era All" shows Mar 6, 2026 to present (61 days, 7 trades). View crash history ↓
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:35:28

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026

17
Lifetime
Confidence: 70%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.3/35
Total Return
2.8/25
Win Rate
10.5/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
7.9/10
Raw Quality 24.7/100
× Confidence 0.70 = 17.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (70%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,352
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Era 2)

Starting Capital
$10,099.51
Current Value
$10,893.93
Total P&L
$405.36
Max Drawdown
-99.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20

Trade Statistics (Era 2)

Total Trades
7
Winners / Losers
3 / 4
Best Trade
+9.28%
Worst Trade
-4.53%
Avg Trade Return
+1.28%
Avg Hold Time
1.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Era 2)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$155,625.44
Estimated Fees
$389.06
Gross P&L
$405.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$16.30
Gross Return
+4.01%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.16%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

💸 Capital Refund History

When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.

# Date Capital Before Trades Before Era Fees Paid Reason
1 Mar 6, 2026 $99.51 513 $7,629.88 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED

⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 1 time. Total capital invested: $20,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.

📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures

Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.

💀 Era 1 — CRASHED
Jan 1, 2024 → Mar 6, 2026
Trades
513
Win Rate
32.9%
P&L
$-9,904.71
Fees Paid
$7,629.88
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,000
Crashed At
$99.51
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED

📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time (Era 2)

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay (Era 2)

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

🔄 Era 2 Trade History (Current) (since refund on Mar 6, 2026 - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Volume had $10,099.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 1:00pm ET $8.94 1,130 $10,099.51
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 11:00am ET $9.77 1,130 $11,037.16 $11,037.16 +$884.81
(+9.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 12:20pm ET $9.86 1,119 $11,037.16
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 10:50pm ET $9.46 1,119 $10,589.40 $10,589.40 $-501.82
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 11:25pm ET $9.49 1,116 $10,589.40
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 9:40am ET $10.26 1,116 $11,448.61 $11,448.61 +$804.11
(+8.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.4d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 11:30am ET $9.99 1,146 $11,448.61
🔴 SELL Mar 14, 2026 2:35am ET $9.59 1,146 $10,990.20 $10,990.20 $-514.50
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 14, 2026 2:40am ET $9.60 1,145 $10,990.20
🔴 SELL Mar 15, 2026 11:30pm ET $10.39 1,145 $11,894.61 $11,894.61 +$847.19
(+8.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 15, 2026 11:35pm ET $10.38 1,146 $11,894.61
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 8:00am ET $9.91 1,146 $11,356.03 $11,356.03 $-596.71
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:05am ET $9.83 1,155 $11,356.03
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 8:55am ET $9.43 1,155 $10,893.93 $10,893.93 $-517.72
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
+ 1 refund ($10,000)
Total Invested: $20,000.00
Ended with: $10,893.93
Net Profit/Loss: $-9,106.07
Total Return: -45.53%
Back to Victor Volume