TLT Victor Volume's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 44 trades executed
-14.49%
2 Years Return
$8,850.18
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$10,349.49
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
8
Lifetime
Confidence: 85%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
9.6/100
× Confidence 0.85
= 8.2
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (85%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
75,200
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,349.49
Current Value
$8,850.18
Total P&L
$-1,499.33
Max Drawdown
-11.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
31
Winners / Losers
15 /
16
Best Trade
+4.50%
Worst Trade
-5.42%
Avg Trade Return
-0.50%
Avg Hold Time
20.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$596,844.96
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,499.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,499.33
Gross Return
-14.49%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.49%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Volume had $10,349.49 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2024 3:55pm ET | $99.25 | 105 | $10,421.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2024 9:30am ET | $95.07 | 105 | $9,982.86 | $10,016.13 |
$-438.39 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2024 9:30am ET | $94.50 | 105 | $9,922.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2024 9:30am ET | $91.16 | 105 | $9,571.28 | $9,664.90 |
$-351.23 (-3.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2024 9:30am ET | $92.91 | 104 | $9,663.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2024 9:30am ET | $90.28 | 104 | $9,389.13 | $9,391.02 |
$-273.88 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2024 11:45am ET | $90.19 | 104 | $9,379.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2024 11:45am ET | $91.48 | 104 | $9,513.40 | $9,524.66 |
+$133.64 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 13, 2024 12:40pm ET | $90.30 | 105 | $9,481.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 3, 2025 12:40pm ET | $87.40 | 105 | $9,177.00 | $9,220.16 |
$-304.50 (-3.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2025 3:55pm ET | $86.91 | 106 | $9,212.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 3:55pm ET | $88.31 | 106 | $9,360.86 | $9,368.56 |
+$148.40 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2025 3:55pm ET | $88.16 | 106 | $9,344.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2025 3:55pm ET | $88.11 | 106 | $9,339.13 | $9,362.73 |
$-5.83 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2025 1:05pm ET | $88.55 | 105 | $9,297.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2025 2:05pm ET | $90.50 | 105 | $9,501.98 | $9,567.48 |
+$204.75 (+2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 14, 2025 3:50pm ET | $90.13 | 106 | $9,553.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 3:50pm ET | $93.13 | 106 | $9,872.05 | $9,885.75 |
+$318.28 (+3.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 3:50pm ET | $90.21 | 109 | $9,832.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2025 11:15am ET | $86.55 | 109 | $9,434.07 | $9,486.93 |
$-398.82 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 11:50am ET | $86.86 | 109 | $9,467.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2025 11:50am ET | $88.37 | 109 | $9,632.33 | $9,651.52 |
+$164.59 (+1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 2, 2025 3:40pm ET | $87.76 | 109 | $9,565.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 1:15pm ET | $84.15 | 109 | $9,172.35 | $9,258.03 |
$-393.49 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2025 3:00pm ET | $84.28 | 109 | $9,186.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2025 3:00pm ET | $87.09 | 109 | $9,492.27 | $9,563.78 |
+$305.74 (+3.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 13, 2025 3:20pm ET | $86.19 | 110 | $9,480.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.45 | 110 | $9,508.95 | $9,591.83 |
+$28.05 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2025 9:40am ET | $85.54 | 112 | $9,580.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2025 9:40am ET | $86.44 | 112 | $9,681.28 | $9,692.13 |
+$100.31 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2025 1:25pm ET | $86.77 | 111 | $9,631.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 1:25pm ET | $86.96 | 111 | $9,652.01 | $9,712.67 |
+$20.54 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2025 3:50pm ET | $86.40 | 112 | $9,676.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2025 3:50pm ET | $90.29 | 112 | $10,111.92 | $10,147.78 |
+$435.11 (+4.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $90.22 | 112 | $10,104.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.74 | 112 | $9,938.88 | $9,982.58 |
$-165.20 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2025 1:00pm ET | $89.33 | 111 | $9,915.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 1:00pm ET | $91.98 | 111 | $10,209.23 | $10,276.01 |
+$293.43 (+3.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 1:50pm ET | $91.61 | 112 | $10,260.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 12:50pm ET | $89.13 | 112 | $9,982.00 | $9,997.69 |
$-278.32 (-2.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 3:30pm ET | $89.24 | 112 | $9,994.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 3:30pm ET | $88.25 | 112 | $9,884.39 | $9,887.20 |
$-110.49 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 3:50pm ET | $87.37 | 113 | $9,872.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 3:50pm ET | $87.11 | 113 | $9,842.87 | $9,857.25 |
$-29.95 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $87.48 | 112 | $9,797.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $88.33 | 112 | $9,892.42 | $9,951.89 |
+$94.64 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $87.80 | 113 | $9,921.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $88.46 | 113 | $9,995.42 | $10,025.91 |
+$74.02 (+0.8%) |
📅 Sim Ended
13.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 2:50pm ET | $89.89 | 111 | $9,977.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $88.33 | 111 | $9,805.18 | $9,853.86 |
$-172.05 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 2:10pm ET | $87.03 | 113 | $9,834.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 2:10pm ET | $85.64 | 113 | $9,676.76 | $9,696.23 |
$-157.63 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:20pm ET | $85.61 | 113 | $9,674.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $86.39 | 113 | $9,761.51 | $9,783.24 |
+$87.01 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 11:30am ET | $87.50 | 111 | $9,711.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 12:50pm ET | $83.97 | 111 | $9,321.09 | $9,392.39 |
$-390.85 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 11:30am ET | $87.50 | 111 | $9,711.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $82.75 | 111 | $9,185.25 | $8,865.69 |
$-526.70 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
34.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.82 | 107 | $8,861.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.20 | 107 | $8,902.40 | $8,906.88 |
+$41.19 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $82.29 | 108 | $8,886.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 12:40pm ET | $81.76 | 108 | $8,830.08 | $8,850.18 |
$-56.70 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,850.18
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,149.82
Total Return:
-11.50%