Compendium › Victor Yield Hawk › MRNA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRNA
Alpaca Tradeable

Victor Yield Hawk's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-06-26 to present • 4 trades in period

+7.15%
Last Month Return
$28,524.02
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$26,621.05
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:37:09

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

59
Lifetime
Confidence: 85%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
18.9/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
5.1/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 69.4/100
× Confidence 0.85 = 58.7

30-Day Momentum

22
+9.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 33.7 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-36 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (85%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$26,621.05
Current Value
$28,524.02
Period P&L
$1,902.98
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.36

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+9.39%
Worst Trade
-4.26%
Avg Trade Return
+2.41%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$233,389.72
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,902.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,902.98
Gross Return
+7.15%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.15%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Yield Hawk had $26,621.05 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $59.95 436 $26,138.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:55am ET $65.58 436 $28,592.88 $28,607.02 +$2,454.68
(+9.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET $71.51 400 $28,606.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:45am ET $77.69 400 $31,076.00 $31,077.02 +$2,470.00
(+8.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 2:55pm ET $81.46 381 $31,036.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:10am ET $77.99 381 $29,714.19 $29,754.95 $-1,322.07
(-4.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 3:20pm ET $76.62 388 $29,728.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET $73.45 388 $28,497.63 $28,524.02 $-1,230.93
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $28,524.02
Net Profit/Loss: +$18,524.02
Total Return: +185.24%
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