MRNA Victor Yield Hawk's Analysis
2024-01-02 09:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 68 trades executed
+287.29%
2 Years Return
$56,940.31
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$14,702.34
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score PRO Scored Sep 24, 2026
71
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%
Score ≥ 70 + Momentum ≥ 40
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
22.2/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
9.2/15
Consistency
7.1/10
Raw Quality
77.2/100
× Confidence 0.92
= 71.2
30-Day Momentum
58
+21.7%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
3.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 87.1
Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-14 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
63,115
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$14,702.34
Current Value
$56,940.31
Total P&L
$42,237.98
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
54
Winners / Losers
26 /
28
Best Trade
+84.95%
Worst Trade
-8.60%
Avg Trade Return
+3.19%
Avg Hold Time
2.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,562,636.18
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$42,237.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$42,237.98
Gross Return
+287.29%
Net Return (after fees)
+287.29%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Yield Hawk had $14,702.34 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2024 9:45am ET | $51.48 | 285 | $14,671.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 8, 2024 10:00am ET | $49.01 | 285 | $13,967.85 | $13,998.39 |
$-703.95 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2024 9:30am ET | $42.94 | 326 | $13,996.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2024 9:35am ET | $41.07 | 326 | $13,387.19 | $13,388.77 |
$-609.62 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 15, 2024 2:35pm ET | $37.38 | 358 | $13,382.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 22, 2024 10:10am ET | $40.89 | 358 | $14,638.62 | $14,645.35 |
+$1,256.58 (+9.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 13, 2024 9:30am ET | $42.29 | 346 | $14,632.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 9:30am ET | $39.48 | 346 | $13,660.08 | $13,673.09 |
$-972.26 (-6.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 20, 2024 9:30am ET | $40.56 | 337 | $13,668.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2024 9:35am ET | $38.78 | 337 | $13,068.86 | $13,073.23 |
$-599.86 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2024 12:35pm ET | $40.00 | 326 | $13,038.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2025 10:50am ET | $43.24 | 326 | $14,096.24 | $14,131.10 |
+$1,057.87 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 3, 2025 1:40pm ET | $41.84 | 337 | $14,100.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2025 9:40am ET | $46.12 | 337 | $15,543.89 | $15,574.91 |
+$1,443.81 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2025 2:45pm ET | $44.10 | 353 | $15,567.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 10, 2025 11:45am ET | $42.30 | 353 | $14,931.90 | $14,939.51 |
$-635.40 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2025 3:30pm ET | $34.76 | 429 | $14,912.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2025 2:50pm ET | $33.30 | 429 | $14,284.41 | $14,311.89 |
$-627.63 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2025 3:50pm ET | $34.79 | 411 | $14,298.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2025 11:15am ET | $33.39 | 411 | $13,723.29 | $13,736.49 |
$-575.40 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 17, 2025 3:35pm ET | $33.94 | 404 | $13,711.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2025 9:35am ET | $36.73 | 404 | $14,838.92 | $14,863.65 |
+$1,127.16 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2025 9:40am ET | $37.51 | 396 | $14,853.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2025 10:05am ET | $40.90 | 396 | $16,197.19 | $16,206.88 |
+$1,343.23 (+9.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2025 1:15pm ET | $39.88 | 406 | $16,192.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $45.36 | 406 | $18,416.16 | $18,430.74 |
+$2,223.87 (+13.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $41.05 | 448 | $18,390.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2025 3:20pm ET | $44.41 | 448 | $19,893.44 | $19,933.78 |
+$1,503.04 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2025 10:30am ET | $41.04 | 485 | $19,904.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $38.06 | 485 | $18,459.10 | $18,488.48 |
$-1,445.30 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $37.47 | 493 | $18,470.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2025 10:25am ET | $34.37 | 493 | $16,941.95 | $16,960.18 |
$-1,528.30 (-8.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2025 3:15pm ET | $35.04 | 484 | $16,956.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2025 3:55pm ET | $33.62 | 484 | $16,272.08 | $16,275.32 |
$-684.86 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2025 12:25pm ET | $31.10 | 523 | $16,265.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 14, 2025 11:35am ET | $33.62 | 523 | $17,580.65 | $17,590.67 |
+$1,315.35 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2025 3:20pm ET | $35.79 | 491 | $17,572.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2025 10:40am ET | $34.35 | 491 | $16,863.40 | $16,881.17 |
$-709.50 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 21, 2025 11:35am ET | $33.89 | 498 | $16,874.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $31.71 | 498 | $15,791.58 | $15,798.02 |
$-1,083.15 (-6.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 3:50pm ET | $24.53 | 644 | $15,794.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2025 9:35am ET | $26.65 | 644 | $17,162.60 | $17,165.75 |
+$1,367.73 (+8.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 1:30pm ET | $25.19 | 681 | $17,150.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2025 9:35am ET | $27.20 | 681 | $18,523.20 | $18,537.97 |
+$1,372.22 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $26.01 | 712 | $18,519.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2025 10:25am ET | $24.92 | 712 | $17,741.12 | $17,759.96 |
$-778.00 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2025 3:55pm ET | $23.65 | 750 | $17,737.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $26.68 | 750 | $20,006.25 | $20,028.71 |
+$2,268.75 (+12.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2025 11:10am ET | $28.66 | 698 | $20,004.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $27.48 | 698 | $19,178.39 | $19,202.42 |
$-826.29 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $25.58 | 750 | $19,184.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2025 10:20am ET | $27.72 | 750 | $20,790.00 | $20,807.72 |
+$1,605.30 (+8.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2025 1:40pm ET | $26.41 | 787 | $20,784.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $28.69 | 787 | $22,579.03 | $22,602.08 |
+$1,794.36 (+8.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2025 9:35am ET | $27.68 | 816 | $22,586.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 13, 2025 1:10pm ET | $26.53 | 816 | $21,652.07 | $21,667.27 |
$-934.81 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2025 3:30pm ET | $25.81 | 839 | $21,650.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2025 12:35pm ET | $27.87 | 839 | $23,382.93 | $23,399.81 |
+$1,732.54 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $30.85 | 758 | $23,384.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2025 11:05am ET | $33.47 | 758 | $25,371.09 | $25,386.60 |
+$1,986.79 (+8.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 11, 2025 3:50pm ET | $33.65 | 754 | $25,372.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2025 10:20am ET | $32.16 | 754 | $24,248.64 | $24,263.21 |
$-1,123.38 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2025 3:55pm ET | $32.07 | 756 | $24,244.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2025 10:05am ET | $34.90 | 756 | $26,384.48 | $26,402.77 |
+$2,139.56 (+8.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2025 3:50pm ET | $34.14 | 773 | $26,390.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2025 9:45am ET | $32.77 | 773 | $25,327.35 | $25,339.90 |
$-1,062.88 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 3:40pm ET | $47.97 | 528 | $25,328.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $45.99 | 528 | $24,282.72 | $24,294.46 |
$-1,045.44 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 11:10am ET | $47.44 | 512 | $24,286.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:45am ET | $45.06 | 512 | $23,070.72 | $23,078.46 |
$-1,216.00 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 1:10pm ET | $45.12 | 511 | $23,056.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 2:15pm ET | $49.08 | 511 | $25,082.43 | $25,104.58 |
+$2,026.12 (+8.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $51.60 | 486 | $25,077.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $49.51 | 486 | $24,064.29 | $24,091.27 |
$-1,013.31 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.66 | 457 | $24,065.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 1:05pm ET | $57.17 | 457 | $26,126.69 | $26,152.34 |
+$2,061.07 (+8.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.6h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.95 | 436 | $26,138.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $65.58 | 436 | $28,592.88 | $28,607.02 |
+$2,454.68 (+9.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.51 | 400 | $28,606.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $77.69 | 400 | $31,076.00 | $31,077.02 |
+$2,470.00 (+8.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $81.46 | 381 | $31,036.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $77.99 | 381 | $29,714.19 | $29,754.95 |
$-1,322.07 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 3:20pm ET | $76.62 | 388 | $29,728.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.45 | 388 | $28,497.63 | $28,524.02 |
$-1,230.93 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 1:45pm ET | $67.60 | 421 | $28,459.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 11:40am ET | $64.42 | 421 | $27,120.82 | $27,185.24 |
$-1,338.78 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $61.65 | 440 | $27,123.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $58.84 | 440 | $25,889.64 | $25,951.08 |
$-1,234.16 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 3:45pm ET | $57.87 | 448 | $25,923.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $55.31 | 448 | $24,778.88 | $24,806.44 |
$-1,144.64 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $56.98 | 435 | $24,786.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.47 | 435 | $23,696.62 | $23,716.77 |
$-1,089.68 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 1:10pm ET | $54.85 | 432 | $23,695.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $59.27 | 432 | $25,604.64 | $25,626.21 |
+$1,909.44 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 2:00pm ET | $58.32 | 439 | $25,604.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 11:40am ET | $63.00 | 439 | $27,657.00 | $27,679.02 |
+$2,052.81 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 12:10pm ET | $63.85 | 433 | $27,649.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $118.10 | 433 | $51,137.04 | $51,166.85 |
+$23,487.83 (+84.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:15pm ET | $146.00 | 350 | $51,100.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $133.44 | 350 | $46,704.00 | $46,770.43 |
$-4,396.42 (-8.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.42 | 317 | $46,730.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 1:35pm ET | $159.34 | 317 | $50,510.78 | $50,550.52 |
+$3,780.10 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $136.68 | 369 | $50,436.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 11:40am ET | $148.16 | 369 | $54,671.04 | $54,784.80 |
+$4,234.28 (+8.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $150.29 | 364 | $54,705.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 10:35am ET | $144.03 | 364 | $52,426.92 | $52,506.16 |
$-2,278.64 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.4h held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $169.56 | 309 | $52,394.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:50am ET | $183.91 | 309 | $56,828.19 | $56,940.31 |
+$4,434.15 (+8.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$56,940.31
Net Profit/Loss:
+$46,940.31
Total Return:
+469.40%