Compendium › Victor Yield Hawk › TLT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TLT
Alpaca Tradeable

Victor Yield Hawk's Analysis

2024-01-02 09:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 18 trades executed

-3.49%
2 Years Return
$9,814.59
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,169.43
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 18:45:13

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 11.8/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 8.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
75,200
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,169.43
Current Value
$9,814.59
Total P&L
$-354.84
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
14
Winners / Losers
7 / 7
Best Trade
+3.63%
Worst Trade
-5.42%
Avg Trade Return
-0.20%
Avg Hold Time
21.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$291,076.38
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-354.84
Net P&L (after fees)
$-354.84
Gross Return
-3.49%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.49%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Yield Hawk had $10,169.43 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2024 9:30am ET $89.75 113 $10,141.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 27, 2024 9:30am ET $93.01 113 $10,510.13 $10,537.80 +$368.38
(+3.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 13, 2024 12:40pm ET $90.30 116 $10,474.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 3, 2025 12:40pm ET $87.40 116 $10,138.40 $10,201.40 $-336.40
(-3.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $86.91 117 $10,168.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2025 3:55pm ET $88.31 117 $10,332.27 $10,365.20 +$163.80
(+1.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2025 3:55pm ET $88.16 117 $10,314.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2025 3:55pm ET $88.11 117 $10,308.29 $10,358.77 $-6.43
(-0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2025 3:50pm ET $88.58 116 $10,274.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 14, 2025 9:30am ET $90.06 116 $10,447.35 $10,531.42 +$172.65
(+1.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21.7d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 1:00pm ET $87.76 120 $10,531.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 1:00pm ET $88.61 120 $10,633.20 $10,633.42 +$102.00
(+1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
7 🟢 BUY May 12, 2025 9:30am ET $86.48 122 $10,550.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2025 9:30am ET $85.33 122 $10,409.65 $10,492.51 $-140.91
(-1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2025 1:55pm ET $85.05 123 $10,461.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2025 1:55pm ET $87.41 123 $10,751.43 $10,782.79 +$290.28
(+2.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2025 2:55pm ET $86.01 125 $10,751.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2025 2:55pm ET $85.84 125 $10,729.38 $10,760.92 $-21.88
(-0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 12:20pm ET $85.61 125 $10,701.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 12:20pm ET $86.39 125 $10,798.13 $10,857.17 +$96.25
(+0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 11:30am ET $87.50 124 $10,849.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 12:50pm ET $83.97 124 $10,412.75 $10,420.54 $-436.63
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.1d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 11:30am ET $87.50 124 $10,849.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $82.75 124 $10,261.00 $9,832.16 $-588.38
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
34.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $82.82 118 $9,772.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $83.20 118 $9,817.60 $9,877.59 +$45.43
(+0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $82.29 120 $9,874.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 12:40pm ET $81.76 120 $9,811.20 $9,814.59 $-63.00
(-0.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,814.59
Net Profit/Loss: $-185.41
Total Return: -1.85%
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