Compendium › Wally Whale › ETHUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ETHUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Wally Whale's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 4 trades in period

+2.56%
Last Year Return
$10,851.57
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,527.04
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:13:10

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.2 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-40.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.3%
ATR%
13.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 66%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.4/35
Total Return
8.1/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 23.4/100
× Confidence 0.66 = 15.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (66%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,166
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
366 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,527.04
Current Value
$10,851.57
Period P&L
$269.93
Max Drawdown
-12.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+7.56%
Worst Trade
-6.20%
Avg Trade Return
+1.28%
Avg Hold Time
3.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$84,188.66
Estimated Fees
$210.47
Gross P&L
$269.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$59.46
Gross Return
+2.56%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.56%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 366 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wally Whale had $10,527.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET $3,731.40 3 $10,527.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $3,500.00 3 $9,874.21 $9,823.21 $-703.83
(-6.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $3,500.00 3 $9,823.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:30pm ET $3,764.60 3 $10,565.84 $10,514.87 +$691.66
(+7.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 4:35pm ET $3,102.50 3 $10,514.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 4, 2025 5:05pm ET $3,258.30 3 $11,042.90 $10,989.01 +$474.14
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
30m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 5:15pm ET $2,455.44 4 $10,989.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 5:15am ET $2,424.73 4 $10,851.57 $10,851.57 $-192.04
(-1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,851.57
Net Profit/Loss: +$851.57
Total Return: +8.52%
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