Compendium › Wally Whale › AVAXUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVAXUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Wally Whale's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 3 trades in period

+2.42%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,993.70
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$7,803.76
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:01:56

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 69%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 5.8/100
× Confidence 0.69 = 4.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (69%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,778
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,803.76
Current Value
$7,993.70
Period P&L
$189.17
Max Drawdown
-45.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+4.45%
Worst Trade
-3.19%
Avg Trade Return
+0.56%
Avg Hold Time
9.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$47,257.07
Estimated Fees
$118.14
Gross P&L
$189.17
Net P&L (after fees)
$71.03
Gross Return
+2.42%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.91%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wally Whale had $7,803.76 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 3:25pm ET $8.37 950 $7,950.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET $8.10 950 $7,696.91 $7,657.79 $-292.52
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:50pm ET $8.31 922 $7,657.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 7:50am ET $8.68 922 $7,998.75 $7,959.61 +$301.82
(+4.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 1:50pm ET $9.34 852 $7,959.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 1:50am ET $9.38 852 $7,993.70 $7,993.70 $-5.80
(+0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,993.70
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,006.30
Total Return: -20.06%
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