DOGEUSD Wally Whale's Analysis
2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-25 06:30:00+00 • 70 trades executed
-19.50%
2 Years Return
$13,286.83
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$14,759.86
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
21.8 oversold
20d Trend
-37.1%
5d Trend
-36.5%
EMA20 Dist
-35.0%
ATR%
12.1%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
25
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.4/35
Total Return
12.5/25
Win Rate
4.0/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality
26.8/100
× Confidence 0.93
= 24.8
30-Day Momentum
17
+2.5%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 23.1
Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,310
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$14,759.86
Current Value
$13,286.83
Total P&L
$-2,878.69
Max Drawdown
-32.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
52
Winners / Losers
23 /
29
Best Trade
+6.71%
Worst Trade
-7.02%
Avg Trade Return
+0.14%
Avg Hold Time
7.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$1,378,018.07
Estimated Fees
$3,445.05
Gross P&L
$-2,878.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$-6,323.74
Gross Return
-19.50%
Net Return (after fees)
-42.84%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 DOGEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wally Whale had $14,759.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2024 7:40am ET | $0.4020 | 36,712 | $14,759.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2024 1:40pm ET | $0.4231 | 36,712 | $15,534.03 | $15,458.29 |
+$698.43 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET | $0.3932 | 39,315 | $15,458.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 4:15pm ET | $0.4196 | 39,315 | $16,495.03 | $16,415.14 |
+$956.85 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2024 10:55am ET | $0.3729 | 44,026 | $16,415.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2024 3:45pm ET | $0.3919 | 44,026 | $17,255.60 | $17,171.42 |
+$756.28 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2024 12:50pm ET | $0.3199 | 53,683 | $17,171.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2024 2:35pm ET | $0.3082 | 53,683 | $16,545.63 | $16,461.33 |
$-710.09 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 20, 2024 3:45am ET | $0.3050 | 53,970 | $16,461.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 20, 2024 4:05am ET | $0.2938 | 53,970 | $15,853.63 | $15,772.84 |
$-688.49 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 20, 2024 8:30am ET | $0.2996 | 52,650 | $15,772.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 20, 2024 11:35am ET | $0.3152 | 52,650 | $16,596.28 | $16,515.36 |
+$742.52 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 4:50pm ET | $0.2671 | 61,844 | $16,515.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2025 5:40pm ET | $0.2584 | 61,844 | $15,979.18 | $15,897.94 |
$-617.42 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 5:40pm ET | $0.2584 | 61,529 | $15,897.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2025 7:40pm ET | $0.2456 | 61,529 | $15,110.98 | $15,033.46 |
$-864.48 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET | $0.2377 | 63,251 | $15,033.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET | $0.2277 | 63,251 | $14,399.05 | $14,325.47 |
$-707.99 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 11:35pm ET | $0.2255 | 63,539 | $14,325.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 12:55am ET | $0.2375 | 63,539 | $15,092.38 | $15,018.84 |
+$693.37 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2025 7:10pm ET | $0.2045 | 73,431 | $15,018.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2025 5:15am ET | $0.1980 | 73,431 | $14,538.60 | $14,464.71 |
$-554.13 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 2:55pm ET | $0.1987 | 72,811 | $14,464.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2025 8:35pm ET | $0.1920 | 72,811 | $13,976.15 | $13,905.04 |
$-559.67 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 8:35pm ET | $0.1920 | 72,441 | $13,905.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 8:35am ET | $0.1896 | 72,441 | $13,734.08 | $13,664.98 |
$-240.06 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 2:55pm ET | $0.1519 | 89,984 | $13,664.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 8:40pm ET | $0.1472 | 89,984 | $13,242.95 | $13,175.68 |
$-489.30 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 8:50pm ET | $0.1463 | 90,059 | $13,175.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 10:05pm ET | $0.1540 | 90,059 | $13,870.04 | $13,802.42 |
+$626.74 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 2:15am ET | $0.1384 | 99,765 | $13,802.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 2:40am ET | $0.1336 | 99,765 | $13,329.64 | $13,261.81 |
$-540.61 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 2:45am ET | $0.1336 | 99,235 | $13,261.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 6:15am ET | $0.1411 | 99,235 | $14,006.08 | $13,937.91 |
+$676.10 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2025 11:15pm ET | $0.2240 | 62,228 | $13,937.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2025 11:15am ET | $0.2215 | 62,228 | $13,785.45 | $13,716.14 |
$-221.77 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2025 3:05am ET | $0.2234 | 61,411 | $13,716.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2025 3:05pm ET | $0.2177 | 61,411 | $13,368.55 | $13,300.84 |
$-415.30 (-2.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET | $0.2021 | 65,807 | $13,300.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET | $0.1944 | 65,807 | $12,794.13 | $12,728.89 |
$-571.95 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET | $0.1944 | 65,471 | $12,728.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 5:20pm ET | $0.1866 | 65,471 | $12,214.29 | $12,151.93 |
$-576.96 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 11, 2025 1:45am ET | $0.1925 | 63,114 | $12,151.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 11, 2025 1:45pm ET | $0.1930 | 63,114 | $12,179.08 | $12,118.25 |
$-33.68 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 11, 2025 3:20pm ET | $0.1868 | 64,876 | $12,118.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 11, 2025 5:00pm ET | $0.1803 | 64,876 | $11,697.80 | $11,638.26 |
$-479.99 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 11, 2025 5:05pm ET | $0.1787 | 65,127 | $11,638.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 12, 2025 12:20am ET | $0.1878 | 65,127 | $12,228.13 | $12,168.47 |
+$530.21 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 7:15am ET | $0.1354 | 89,878 | $12,168.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 12:00pm ET | $0.1423 | 89,878 | $12,790.97 | $12,728.58 |
+$560.11 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 1:40pm ET | $0.1008 | 126,254 | $12,728.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 1, 2026 1:40am ET | $0.1052 | 126,254 | $13,281.91 | $13,216.89 |
+$488.31 (+4.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $0.0886 | 149,209 | $13,216.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $0.0824 | 149,209 | $12,288.81 | $12,225.05 |
$-991.84 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $0.0824 | 148,434 | $12,225.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $0.0872 | 148,434 | $12,936.05 | $12,873.15 |
+$648.10 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 2:15am ET | $0.0934 | 137,769 | $12,873.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $0.0923 | 137,769 | $12,719.40 | $12,655.42 |
$-217.73 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 6:25pm ET | $0.1017 | 124,453 | $12,655.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 6:05am ET | $0.0986 | 124,453 | $12,269.70 | $12,269.70 |
$-448.03 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 7:45am ET | $0.0994 | 123,427 | $12,269.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:50am ET | $0.0960 | 123,427 | $11,851.96 | $11,851.96 |
$-478.04 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 11:30am ET | $0.0944 | 125,609 | $11,851.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 7:25pm ET | $0.0914 | 125,609 | $11,475.42 | $11,475.42 |
$-434.86 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 7:25pm ET | $0.0914 | 125,609 | $11,475.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 7:25am ET | $0.0944 | 125,609 | $11,855.24 | $11,855.24 |
+$321.49 (+3.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 8:20am ET | $0.0939 | 126,278 | $11,855.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 4:50pm ET | $0.0909 | 126,278 | $11,481.58 | $11,481.58 |
$-432.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.5h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:55pm ET | $0.0883 | 129,972 | $11,481.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $0.0893 | 129,972 | $11,602.52 | $11,602.52 |
+$63.23 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $0.0894 | 129,717 | $11,602.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 10:05pm ET | $0.0875 | 129,717 | $11,350.58 | $11,350.58 |
$-309.32 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET | $0.0824 | 137,762 | $11,350.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:20pm ET | $0.0816 | 137,762 | $11,238.98 | $11,238.98 |
$-168.07 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 3:00pm ET | $0.0795 | 141,407 | $11,238.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2026 3:00am ET | $0.0802 | 141,407 | $11,346.87 | $11,346.87 |
+$51.43 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $0.0716 | 158,530 | $11,346.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55pm ET | $0.0739 | 158,530 | $11,708.68 | $11,708.68 |
+$304.17 (+3.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:55pm ET | $0.0739 | 158,530 | $11,708.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $0.0745 | 158,530 | $11,813.74 | $11,813.74 |
+$46.25 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 11:20am ET | $0.0739 | 159,876 | $11,813.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 11:20pm ET | $0.0741 | 159,876 | $11,853.66 | $11,853.66 |
$-19.25 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 11:20pm ET | $0.0741 | 159,876 | $11,853.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 11, 2026 11:20am ET | $0.0755 | 159,876 | $12,071.38 | $12,071.38 |
+$157.91 (+1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 8:35pm ET | $0.0912 | 132,325 | $12,071.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 11:25pm ET | $0.0965 | 132,325 | $12,769.97 | $12,769.97 |
+$636.49 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET | $0.0904 | 141,187 | $12,769.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 1:10pm ET | $0.0919 | 141,187 | $12,977.59 | $12,977.59 |
+$143.25 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 1:25pm ET | $0.0919 | 141,258 | $12,977.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 23, 2026 1:25am ET | $0.0903 | 141,258 | $12,760.66 | $12,760.66 |
$-281.28 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 30, 2026 7:30pm ET | $0.0821 | 155,499 | $12,760.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 7:30am ET | $0.0829 | 155,499 | $12,885.51 | $12,885.51 |
+$60.73 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 7:50am ET | $0.0826 | 155,919 | $12,885.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 7:50pm ET | $0.0828 | 155,919 | $12,912.05 | $12,912.05 |
$-37.96 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 1:00am ET | $0.1000 | 129,080 | $12,912.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 1:00pm ET | $0.0996 | 129,080 | $12,855.60 | $12,855.60 |
$-120.87 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 1:15pm ET | $0.0996 | 129,034 | $12,855.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 1:15am ET | $0.1023 | 129,034 | $13,196.86 | $13,196.86 |
+$276.13 (+2.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 11:10am ET | $0.0949 | 139,125 | $13,196.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET | $0.0920 | 139,125 | $12,797.28 | $12,797.28 |
$-464.57 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 3:05pm ET | $0.0921 | 138,917 | $12,797.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 3:05am ET | $0.0942 | 138,917 | $13,085.64 | $13,085.64 |
+$223.66 (+2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 4:15am ET | $0.0945 | 138,475 | $13,085.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 4:15pm ET | $0.0960 | 138,475 | $13,286.83 | $13,286.83 |
+$135.26 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,286.83
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,286.83
Total Return:
+32.87%