XRPUSD Wally Whale's Analysis
2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-25 04:10:00+00 • 56 trades executed
+28.30%
2 Years Return
$15,675.36
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$10,858.16
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.7 oversold
20d Trend
-37.8%
5d Trend
-40.3%
EMA20 Dist
-38.0%
ATR%
13.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
31
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.9/35
Total Return
14.4/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
1.9/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality
35.3/100
× Confidence 0.89
= 31.3
30-Day Momentum
18
+2.4%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 23.5
Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-13 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,271
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,858.16
Current Value
$15,675.36
Total P&L
$3,073.04
Max Drawdown
-31.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
51
Winners / Losers
30 /
21
Best Trade
+9.11%
Worst Trade
-25.41%
Avg Trade Return
+1.13%
Avg Hold Time
6.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$1,346,350.42
Estimated Fees
$3,365.88
Gross P&L
$3,073.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$-292.84
Gross Return
+28.30%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.70%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wally Whale had $10,858.16 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2024 5:00am ET | $0.5085 | 21,354 | $10,858.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2024 5:00pm ET | $0.5220 | 21,354 | $11,146.87 | $11,091.86 |
+$233.70 (+2.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 16, 2024 9:05pm ET | $1.05 | 10,523 | $11,091.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 16, 2024 11:25pm ET | $1.02 | 10,523 | $10,719.36 | $10,664.83 |
$-427.03 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2024 6:05am ET | $1.04 | 10,233 | $10,664.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2024 8:20am ET | $1.10 | 10,233 | $11,277.79 | $11,222.93 |
+$558.10 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2024 7:35am ET | $1.35 | 8,339 | $11,222.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2024 7:40am ET | $1.30 | 8,339 | $10,835.02 | $10,779.87 |
$-443.06 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2024 7:40am ET | $1.30 | 8,296 | $10,779.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2024 8:15am ET | $1.37 | 8,296 | $11,401.42 | $11,345.97 |
+$566.10 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
36m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2024 6:25am ET | $1.29 | 8,764 | $11,345.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2024 8:35am ET | $1.37 | 8,764 | $11,968.31 | $11,910.03 |
+$564.06 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2024 8:50am ET | $2.40 | 4,970 | $11,910.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2024 9:05am ET | $2.58 | 4,970 | $12,824.05 | $12,762.22 |
+$852.19 (+7.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2024 8:10pm ET | $2.25 | 5,663 | $12,762.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2024 9:40pm ET | $2.38 | 5,663 | $13,495.62 | $13,429.97 |
+$667.75 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET | $2.05 | 6,537 | $13,429.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 4:05pm ET | $2.18 | 6,537 | $14,256.23 | $14,187.01 |
+$757.04 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 4:05pm ET | $2.18 | 6,505 | $14,187.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 4:20pm ET | $2.30 | 6,505 | $14,930.54 | $14,857.75 |
+$670.74 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 7:00pm ET | $2.18 | 6,808 | $14,857.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 10:05pm ET | $2.10 | 6,808 | $14,317.85 | $14,244.91 |
$-612.84 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 20, 2024 5:10am ET | $2.06 | 6,930 | $14,244.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 20, 2024 6:35am ET | $1.98 | 6,930 | $13,703.67 | $13,633.79 |
$-611.12 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 12:50pm ET | $2.54 | 5,376 | $13,633.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2025 2:35pm ET | $2.67 | 5,376 | $14,369.97 | $14,299.96 |
+$666.17 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 9:05pm ET | $1.98 | 7,226 | $14,299.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2025 9:10pm ET | $2.10 | 7,226 | $15,174.82 | $15,101.14 |
+$801.18 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 3:00am ET | $2.39 | 6,310 | $15,101.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 3:35am ET | $2.32 | 6,310 | $14,644.86 | $14,570.49 |
$-530.65 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
36m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 5:35am ET | $2.40 | 6,060 | $14,570.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 8:25am ET | $2.32 | 6,060 | $14,084.41 | $14,012.77 |
$-557.72 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 9:00am ET | $2.28 | 6,155 | $14,012.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 10:05am ET | $2.39 | 6,155 | $14,717.65 | $14,645.83 |
+$633.06 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 9:55am ET | $2.56 | 5,726 | $14,645.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2025 1:35pm ET | $2.46 | 5,726 | $14,087.36 | $14,015.53 |
$-630.30 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 8:40pm ET | $2.26 | 6,188 | $14,015.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 4:40am ET | $2.38 | 6,188 | $14,720.98 | $14,649.14 |
+$633.61 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2025 11:40pm ET | $1.80 | 8,133 | $14,649.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 2:15am ET | $1.73 | 8,133 | $14,069.26 | $13,997.46 |
$-651.68 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET | $2.30 | 6,099 | $13,997.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET | $1.71 | 6,099 | $10,440.46 | $10,379.36 |
$-3,618.10 (-25.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET | $1.71 | 6,063 | $10,379.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 5:20pm ET | $1.87 | 6,063 | $11,324.65 | $11,270.39 |
+$891.03 (+9.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 5:20pm ET | $1.87 | 6,034 | $11,270.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 5:30pm ET | $2.03 | 6,034 | $12,272.70 | $12,213.84 |
+$943.45 (+8.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 7:05pm ET | $2.32 | 5,260 | $12,213.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 10:35pm ET | $2.44 | 5,260 | $12,828.69 | $12,766.08 |
+$552.24 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.5h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:20am ET | $1.30 | 9,835 | $12,766.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 12:05pm ET | $1.24 | 9,835 | $12,160.53 | $12,098.21 |
$-667.87 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 6:25pm ET | $1.44 | 8,409 | $12,098.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 6:25am ET | $1.44 | 8,409 | $12,101.74 | $12,101.74 |
$-56.97 (+0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 6:55am ET | $1.44 | 8,422 | $12,101.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:50am ET | $1.39 | 8,422 | $11,706.58 | $11,706.57 |
$-454.69 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 21, 2026 10:20pm ET | $1.41 | 8,297 | $11,706.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $1.40 | 8,297 | $11,606.59 | $11,606.59 |
$-158.27 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 11:30am ET | $1.22 | 9,511 | $11,606.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 11:30pm ET | $1.21 | 9,511 | $11,470.30 | $11,470.30 |
$-193.98 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 11:45pm ET | $1.19 | 9,634 | $11,470.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 11:45am ET | $1.22 | 9,634 | $11,790.34 | $11,790.34 |
+$261.89 (+2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:55pm ET | $1.16 | 10,166 | $11,790.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $1.18 | 10,166 | $11,972.21 | $11,972.21 |
+$122.47 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 11:05am ET | $1.18 | 10,140 | $11,972.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 10:25pm ET | $1.14 | 10,140 | $11,584.38 | $11,584.38 |
$-446.73 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET | $1.10 | 10,552 | $11,584.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:20pm ET | $1.10 | 10,552 | $11,598.41 | $11,598.41 |
$-43.92 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $1.07 | 10,829 | $11,598.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2026 3:15am ET | $1.09 | 10,829 | $11,836.21 | $11,836.21 |
+$179.21 (+2.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $1.01 | 11,687 | $11,836.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55pm ET | $1.03 | 11,687 | $12,035.93 | $12,035.93 |
+$140.04 (+1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 10:10pm ET | $1.02 | 11,848 | $12,035.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $1.04 | 11,848 | $12,327.04 | $12,327.04 |
+$230.20 (+2.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $1.10 | 11,184 | $12,327.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 11:25pm ET | $1.11 | 11,184 | $12,367.86 | $12,367.86 |
$-20.92 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 11:55pm ET | $1.11 | 11,169 | $12,367.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 11, 2026 11:55am ET | $1.11 | 11,169 | $12,424.82 | $12,424.82 |
$-5.02 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $1.38 | 9,019 | $12,424.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 6:40pm ET | $1.45 | 9,019 | $13,068.50 | $13,068.50 |
+$579.95 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 7:40pm ET | $1.47 | 8,920 | $13,068.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 10:50pm ET | $1.54 | 8,920 | $13,767.42 | $13,767.42 |
+$631.83 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET | $1.52 | 9,047 | $13,767.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 3:25am ET | $1.61 | 9,047 | $14,588.72 | $14,588.72 |
+$750.41 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 6:10am ET | $1.46 | 9,984 | $14,588.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 6:10pm ET | $1.47 | 9,984 | $14,688.16 | $14,688.16 |
+$26.25 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 8:00pm ET | $1.47 | 9,997 | $14,688.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 23, 2026 8:00am ET | $1.49 | 9,997 | $14,924.09 | $14,924.09 |
+$161.90 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 30, 2026 7:30pm ET | $1.36 | 10,942 | $14,924.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 7:30am ET | $1.38 | 10,942 | $15,065.79 | $15,065.79 |
+$66.73 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 8:40am ET | $1.36 | 11,056 | $15,065.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 8:40pm ET | $1.38 | 11,056 | $15,305.27 | $15,305.27 |
+$163.55 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 1:00am ET | $1.51 | 10,124 | $15,305.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 9:55am ET | $1.59 | 10,124 | $16,078.96 | $16,078.96 |
+$695.23 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $1.56 | 10,315 | $16,078.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:20pm ET | $1.59 | 10,315 | $16,376.46 | $16,376.46 |
+$216.36 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 11:15pm ET | $1.60 | 10,245 | $16,376.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $1.54 | 10,245 | $15,725.42 | $15,725.42 |
$-731.29 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 11:10am ET | $1.53 | 10,279 | $15,725.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 4:25pm ET | $1.48 | 10,279 | $15,249.07 | $15,249.07 |
$-553.79 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 4:25pm ET | $1.48 | 10,279 | $15,249.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 4:25am ET | $1.49 | 10,279 | $15,285.97 | $15,285.97 |
$-39.43 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 4:25am ET | $1.49 | 10,279 | $15,285.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 4:25pm ET | $1.52 | 10,279 | $15,675.36 | $15,675.36 |
+$311.98 (+2.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,675.36
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,675.36
Total Return:
+56.75%