PEPEUSD Wally Whale's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 43 trades in period
-32.63%
Year to Date Return
$16,897.82
Current Value
37%
Win Rate
$20,548.18
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.2 neutral
20d Trend
-19.0%
5d Trend
-17.2%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.6%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
26
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.0/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
2.3/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality
26.1/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 26.1
30-Day Momentum
4
-6.2%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7
Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-22 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
76,928
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
268 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$20,548.18
Current Value
$16,897.82
Period P&L
$-6,704.50
Max Drawdown
-60.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
16 /
27
Best Trade
+7.00%
Worst Trade
-4.04%
Avg Trade Return
-0.29%
Avg Hold Time
6.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$1,544,678.83
Estimated Fees
$3,861.70
Gross P&L
$-6,704.50
Net P&L (after fees)
$-10,566.20
Gross Return
-32.63%
Net Return (after fees)
-51.42%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 268 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wally Whale had $20,548.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 1:40pm ET | $0.00000403 | 5,098,803,970 | $20,548.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 1, 2026 12:25am ET | $0.00000424 | 5,098,803,970 | $21,618.93 | $21,513.51 |
+$965.33 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $0.00000365 | 5,894,112,329 | $21,513.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $0.00000351 | 5,894,112,329 | $20,688.33 | $20,582.83 |
$-930.68 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $0.00000351 | 5,864,054,131 | $20,582.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET | $0.00000337 | 5,864,054,131 | $19,761.86 | $19,661.00 |
$-921.83 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $0.00000320 | 6,144,062,500 | $19,661.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $0.00000309 | 6,144,062,500 | $18,985.15 | $18,888.54 |
$-772.46 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $0.00000309 | 6,112,796,117 | $18,888.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:20pm ET | $0.00000325 | 6,112,796,117 | $19,866.59 | $19,769.70 |
+$881.16 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:20pm ET | $0.00000325 | 6,082,984,615 | $19,769.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $0.00000342 | 6,082,984,615 | $20,803.81 | $20,702.37 |
+$932.67 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:45pm ET | $0.00000384 | 5,391,242,188 | $20,702.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:45am ET | $0.00000374 | 5,391,242,188 | $20,163.25 | $20,061.08 |
$-641.29 (-2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:45am ET | $0.00000374 | 5,363,925,134 | $20,061.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:05am ET | $0.00000362 | 5,363,925,134 | $19,417.41 | $19,318.71 |
$-742.37 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 6:25pm ET | $0.00000418 | 4,621,700,957 | $19,318.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:10pm ET | $0.00000404 | 4,621,700,957 | $18,671.67 | $18,671.67 |
$-742.01 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:00pm ET | $0.00000412 | 4,531,959,191 | $18,671.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 5:30am ET | $0.00000398 | 4,531,959,191 | $18,037.20 | $18,037.20 |
$-726.25 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.5h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 5:30am ET | $0.00000398 | 4,531,959,191 | $18,037.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:35am ET | $0.00000382 | 4,531,959,191 | $17,312.08 | $17,312.09 |
$-813.49 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 11:30am ET | $0.00000315 | 5,495,901,587 | $17,312.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 11:30pm ET | $0.00000310 | 5,495,901,587 | $17,037.29 | $17,037.29 |
$-360.67 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 11:30pm ET | $0.00000310 | 5,495,901,587 | $17,037.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 11:30am ET | $0.00000318 | 5,495,901,587 | $17,476.97 | $17,476.97 |
+$353.39 (+2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:55pm ET | $0.00000296 | 5,904,381,757 | $17,476.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:00pm ET | $0.00000286 | 5,904,381,757 | $16,886.53 | $16,886.53 |
$-676.35 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 10:00pm ET | $0.00000286 | 5,904,381,757 | $16,886.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 11:00pm ET | $0.00000303 | 5,904,381,757 | $17,890.28 | $17,890.28 |
+$916.80 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 12:00am ET | $0.00000311 | 5,752,500,554 | $17,890.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 3:15am ET | $0.00000301 | 5,752,500,554 | $17,315.03 | $17,315.03 |
$-663.26 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 5:10am ET | $0.00000296 | 5,849,671,171 | $17,315.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 5:10pm ET | $0.00000297 | 5,849,671,171 | $17,373.52 | $17,373.52 |
$-28.22 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 5:35pm ET | $0.00000290 | 5,990,870,131 | $17,373.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:00am ET | $0.00000280 | 5,990,870,131 | $16,774.44 | $16,774.44 |
$-684.46 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET | $0.00000271 | 6,189,830,258 | $16,774.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:20pm ET | $0.00000273 | 6,189,830,258 | $16,898.24 | $16,898.24 |
+$39.61 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 3:05pm ET | $0.00000263 | 6,425,185,021 | $16,898.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 5:00pm ET | $0.00000277 | 6,425,185,021 | $17,797.76 | $17,797.76 |
+$812.79 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 5:15pm ET | $0.00000276 | 6,448,464,677 | $17,797.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 7:30pm ET | $0.00000265 | 6,448,464,677 | $17,088.43 | $17,088.43 |
$-796.55 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:45pm ET | $0.00000272 | 6,282,511,542 | $17,088.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2026 12:05am ET | $0.00000261 | 6,282,511,542 | $16,397.36 | $16,397.36 |
$-774.79 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 6, 2026 12:05am ET | $0.00000261 | 6,282,511,542 | $16,397.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2026 1:05am ET | $0.00000253 | 6,282,511,542 | $15,894.75 | $15,894.76 |
$-583.33 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $0.00000231 | 6,880,848,485 | $15,894.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55pm ET | $0.00000233 | 6,880,848,485 | $16,032.38 | $16,032.38 |
+$57.80 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 10:10pm ET | $0.00000228 | 7,031,744,285 | $16,032.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $0.00000236 | 7,031,744,285 | $16,594.92 | $16,594.92 |
+$480.97 (+3.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 11:20am ET | $0.00000274 | 6,056,540,146 | $16,594.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 11:20pm ET | $0.00000276 | 6,056,540,146 | $16,716.05 | $16,716.05 |
+$37.85 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 11, 2026 12:05am ET | $0.00000277 | 6,034,675,380 | $16,716.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 11, 2026 12:05pm ET | $0.00000277 | 6,034,675,380 | $16,716.05 | $16,716.05 |
$-83.58 (+0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $0.00000388 | 4,308,260,309 | $16,716.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 3:15pm ET | $0.00000375 | 4,308,260,309 | $16,155.98 | $16,155.98 |
$-642.25 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:15pm ET | $0.00000375 | 4,308,260,309 | $16,155.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 5:55pm ET | $0.00000396 | 4,308,260,309 | $17,060.71 | $17,060.71 |
+$821.69 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 6:05pm ET | $0.00000398 | 4,286,610,760 | $17,060.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 7:10pm ET | $0.00000419 | 4,286,610,760 | $17,960.90 | $17,960.90 |
+$812.63 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 7:15pm ET | $0.00000419 | 4,286,610,760 | $17,960.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 8:45pm ET | $0.00000406 | 4,286,610,760 | $17,403.64 | $17,403.64 |
$-645.67 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET | $0.00000400 | 4,350,910,000 | $17,403.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 3:20am ET | $0.00000428 | 4,350,910,000 | $18,621.89 | $18,621.89 |
+$1,128.19 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 3:25am ET | $0.00000425 | 4,381,622,306 | $18,621.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 4:00am ET | $0.00000411 | 4,381,622,306 | $18,008.47 | $18,008.47 |
$-705.00 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 4:55am ET | $0.00000409 | 4,403,048,332 | $18,008.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 6:15am ET | $0.00000395 | 4,403,048,332 | $17,392.04 | $17,392.04 |
$-704.93 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 6:20am ET | $0.00000390 | 4,459,497,669 | $17,392.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 12:15pm ET | $0.00000410 | 4,459,497,669 | $18,283.94 | $18,283.94 |
+$802.71 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 12:15pm ET | $0.00000410 | 4,459,497,669 | $18,283.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 23, 2026 12:15am ET | $0.00000404 | 4,459,497,669 | $18,016.37 | $18,016.37 |
$-358.32 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 30, 2026 7:30pm ET | $0.00000345 | 5,222,136,232 | $18,016.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 7:30am ET | $0.00000358 | 5,222,136,232 | $18,695.25 | $18,695.25 |
+$587.10 (+3.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 8:00am ET | $0.00000360 | 5,193,124,364 | $18,695.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 8:00pm ET | $0.00000356 | 5,193,124,364 | $18,487.52 | $18,487.52 |
$-300.68 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 1:00am ET | $0.00000498 | 3,712,353,414 | $18,487.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 12:10pm ET | $0.00000482 | 3,712,353,414 | $17,893.54 | $17,893.54 |
$-684.93 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 12:30pm ET | $0.00000484 | 3,697,013,110 | $17,893.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 12:30am ET | $0.00000502 | 3,697,013,110 | $18,559.01 | $18,559.01 |
+$574.33 (+3.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 12:30am ET | $0.00000502 | 3,697,013,110 | $18,559.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 6:05am ET | $0.00000485 | 3,697,013,110 | $17,930.51 | $17,930.51 |
$-719.72 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.6h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 11:10am ET | $0.00000451 | 3,975,722,838 | $17,930.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET | $0.00000436 | 3,975,722,838 | $17,334.15 | $17,334.15 |
$-684.52 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 5:20pm ET | $0.00000437 | 3,966,625,074 | $17,334.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 5:20am ET | $0.00000426 | 3,966,625,074 | $16,897.82 | $16,897.82 |
$-521.91 (-2.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,897.82
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,897.82
Total Return:
+68.98%