LTCUSD Wally Whale's Analysis
2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 12:55:00+00 • 36 trades executed
-40.38%
2 Years Return
$6,701.83
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$11,069.14
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.8 oversold
20d Trend
-38.7%
5d Trend
-38.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.1%
ATR%
12.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 64%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
5.2/100
× Confidence 0.64
= 3.3
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (64%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,383
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$11,069.14
Current Value
$6,701.83
Total P&L
$-4,469.17
Max Drawdown
-49.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
33
Winners / Losers
12 /
21
Best Trade
+14.17%
Worst Trade
-28.77%
Avg Trade Return
-0.79%
Avg Hold Time
3.8h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$576,426.71
Estimated Fees
$1,441.07
Gross P&L
$-4,469.17
Net P&L (after fees)
$-5,910.24
Gross Return
-40.38%
Net Return (after fees)
-53.39%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wally Whale had $11,069.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 4, 2024 10:55pm ET | $58.65 | 189 | $11,069.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 5, 2024 10:55am ET | $60.31 | 189 | $11,382.44 | $11,326.31 |
+$257.17 (+2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 1:05am ET | $54.84 | 207 | $11,326.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2024 2:20am ET | $50.71 | 207 | $10,473.33 | $10,418.83 |
$-907.48 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 2:20am ET | $50.71 | 205 | $10,418.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2024 3:15am ET | $53.32 | 205 | $10,955.08 | $10,901.64 |
+$482.81 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
54m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 6:30am ET | $52.60 | 207 | $10,901.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2024 8:55am ET | $51.00 | 207 | $10,570.03 | $10,516.35 |
$-385.29 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 3:45pm ET | $113.26 | 93 | $10,516.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET | $106.00 | 93 | $9,842.25 | $9,791.35 |
$-725.00 (-6.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET | $106.00 | 92 | $9,791.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 4:10pm ET | $112.31 | 92 | $10,374.21 | $10,323.80 |
+$532.45 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 10:10pm ET | $105.77 | 98 | $10,323.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 11:55pm ET | $111.49 | 98 | $10,882.11 | $10,829.09 |
+$505.29 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2024 10:50am ET | $105.77 | 102 | $10,829.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2024 12:55pm ET | $102.02 | 102 | $10,445.15 | $10,391.97 |
$-437.12 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2024 7:00pm ET | $107.96 | 96 | $10,391.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 9:10pm ET | $104.58 | 96 | $10,066.62 | $10,015.47 |
$-376.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2024 9:10pm ET | $104.58 | 96 | $10,015.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2024 5:40am ET | $110.31 | 96 | $10,564.22 | $10,512.77 |
+$497.30 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.5h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2024 1:20pm ET | $98.75 | 106 | $10,512.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2024 3:10pm ET | $95.67 | 106 | $10,184.88 | $10,133.13 |
$-379.64 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 7:40pm ET | $102.06 | 99 | $10,133.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET | $97.68 | 99 | $9,698.26 | $9,648.68 |
$-484.45 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET | $97.68 | 99 | $9,648.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET | $93.29 | 99 | $9,215.04 | $9,167.88 |
$-480.80 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET | $93.29 | 98 | $9,167.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2025 9:00pm ET | $90.00 | 98 | $8,844.56 | $8,799.53 |
$-368.35 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 9:05pm ET | $87.32 | 101 | $8,799.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2025 9:15pm ET | $92.49 | 101 | $9,320.53 | $9,275.23 |
+$475.70 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 2:40am ET | $97.54 | 95 | $9,275.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 9:00am ET | $94.19 | 95 | $8,956.67 | $8,911.09 |
$-364.14 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $97.61 | 91 | $8,911.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 10:55am ET | $103.28 | 91 | $9,428.72 | $9,382.87 |
+$471.78 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 2:15pm ET | $110.49 | 85 | $9,382.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2025 3:35pm ET | $106.94 | 85 | $9,081.40 | $9,035.24 |
$-347.63 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 6:55pm ET | $109.81 | 82 | $9,035.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2025 8:35pm ET | $104.88 | 82 | $8,629.60 | $8,585.43 |
$-449.81 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 8:35pm ET | $104.88 | 82 | $8,585.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 2:45am ET | $101.06 | 82 | $8,272.73 | $8,230.58 |
$-354.85 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 2:45am ET | $101.06 | 81 | $8,230.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 11:15am ET | $97.92 | 81 | $7,974.85 | $7,934.34 |
$-296.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.5h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2025 11:40pm ET | $67.38 | 118 | $7,934.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 2:25am ET | $65.30 | 118 | $7,689.41 | $7,650.35 |
$-283.99 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 4:50am ET | $66.30 | 115 | $7,650.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:55am ET | $70.22 | 115 | $8,102.68 | $8,063.30 |
+$412.95 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET | $114.21 | 71 | $8,063.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET | $81.35 | 71 | $5,743.36 | $5,708.85 |
$-2,354.45 (-28.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET | $81.35 | 70 | $5,708.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 5:20pm ET | $92.88 | 70 | $6,517.98 | $6,487.42 |
+$778.57 (+14.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 8:20pm ET | $96.35 | 67 | $6,487.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 10:35pm ET | $101.46 | 67 | $6,831.49 | $6,798.19 |
+$310.77 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 11, 2025 7:50am ET | $98.05 | 69 | $6,798.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 11, 2025 3:30pm ET | $94.53 | 69 | $6,554.13 | $6,520.75 |
$-277.44 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 11, 2025 3:30pm ET | $94.53 | 69 | $6,520.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 11, 2025 5:00pm ET | $91.42 | 69 | $6,306.22 | $6,274.15 |
$-246.60 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 11, 2025 5:05pm ET | $90.28 | 69 | $6,274.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 12, 2025 2:00am ET | $94.85 | 69 | $6,591.68 | $6,559.52 |
+$285.37 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $47.06 | 139 | $6,559.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $49.65 | 139 | $6,920.53 | $6,886.83 |
+$327.31 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 7:35pm ET | $56.45 | 122 | $6,886.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 7:35am ET | $56.05 | 122 | $6,838.03 | $6,838.03 |
$-83.11 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 7:20pm ET | $56.79 | 120 | $6,838.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 7:20am ET | $55.97 | 120 | $6,739.29 | $6,739.29 |
$-132.68 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 7:35am ET | $55.76 | 121 | $6,739.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $55.45 | 121 | $6,701.83 | $6,701.83 |
$-71.07 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,701.83
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,298.17
Total Return:
-32.98%