Compendium › Wrecking Ball › XLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 4 trades in period

+1.63%
Last Month Return
$20,788.39
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$20,455.44
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:24:53

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

73
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
16.9/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
6.2/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 74.0/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 72.8

30-Day Momentum

19
+2.8%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 28.1 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-54 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$20,455.44
Current Value
$20,788.39
Period P&L
$332.95
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.39

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+3.36%
Worst Trade
-1.54%
Avg Trade Return
+0.71%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$162,566.29
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$332.95
Net P&L (after fees)
$332.95
Gross Return
+1.63%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.63%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $20,455.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $180.45 112 $20,219.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $182.88 112 $20,490.74 $20,490.74 +$271.72
(+1.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:55am ET $186.53 110 $20,490.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $183.66 110 $20,175.46 $20,175.46 $-315.28
(-1.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $184.82 109 $20,175.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $184.25 109 $20,113.24 $20,113.24 $-62.22
(-0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 3:05pm ET $183.48 110 $20,113.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $189.64 110 $20,788.39 $20,788.39 +$675.15
(+3.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $20,788.39
Net Profit/Loss: +$10,788.39
Total Return: +107.88%
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