IBM Wrecking Ball's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 32 trades in period
+33.00%
Last Year Return
$16,887.44
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$12,697.56
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
61
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
8.4/15
Profit Factor
5.1/15
Consistency
6.8/10
Raw Quality
70.6/100
× Confidence 0.87
= 61.4
30-Day Momentum
0
-3.9%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-61 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
23,403
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$12,697.56
Current Value
$16,887.44
Period P&L
$4,189.88
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
32
Winners / Losers
18 /
14
Best Trade
+16.86%
Worst Trade
-12.16%
Avg Trade Return
+1.05%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$969,176.33
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,189.88
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,189.88
Gross Return
+33.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+33.00%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 32 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $12,697.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $271.79 | 47 | $12,697.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 3:55pm ET | $313.01 | 47 | $14,623.29 | $14,623.29 |
+$1,925.73 (+15.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 10:15am ET | $302.10 | 48 | $14,623.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 3:55pm ET | $300.84 | 48 | $14,562.29 | $14,562.29 |
$-61.00 (-0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $305.45 | 48 | $14,562.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 3:55pm ET | $313.81 | 48 | $14,960.83 | $14,960.83 |
+$398.54 (+2.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 10:10am ET | $291.22 | 51 | $14,960.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 3:55pm ET | $290.44 | 51 | $14,921.00 | $14,921.00 |
$-39.83 (-0.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:45am ET | $297.40 | 50 | $14,921.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 1:00pm ET | $308.58 | 50 | $15,482.18 | $15,482.18 |
+$561.18 (+3.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 10:15am ET | $302.45 | 51 | $15,482.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 3:55pm ET | $300.46 | 51 | $15,380.31 | $15,380.31 |
$-101.87 (-0.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $297.60 | 52 | $15,380.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $294.60 | 52 | $15,225.27 | $15,225.27 |
$-155.04 (-1.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:30am ET | $310.58 | 49 | $15,225.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $314.69 | 49 | $15,426.75 | $15,426.75 |
+$201.48 (+1.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $283.43 | 54 | $15,426.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $298.88 | 54 | $16,267.68 | $16,267.68 |
+$840.93 (+5.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 10:10am ET | $284.76 | 57 | $16,267.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $262.38 | 57 | $14,989.43 | $14,989.43 |
$-1,278.25 (-7.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $254.30 | 59 | $14,989.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $223.39 | 59 | $13,167.27 | $13,167.27 |
$-1,822.16 (-12.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $236.45 | 56 | $13,167.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $245.38 | 56 | $13,664.85 | $13,664.85 |
+$497.58 (+3.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $253.46 | 54 | $13,664.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $250.20 | 54 | $13,489.09 | $13,489.09 |
$-175.76 (-1.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $244.04 | 55 | $13,489.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $241.72 | 55 | $13,360.58 | $13,360.58 |
$-128.51 (-1.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $236.56 | 56 | $13,360.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $237.82 | 56 | $13,431.89 | $13,431.89 |
+$71.31 (+0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $228.04 | 59 | $13,431.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $228.05 | 59 | $13,432.51 | $13,432.51 |
+$0.62 (+0.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $225.20 | 60 | $13,432.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $219.28 | 60 | $13,079.25 | $13,079.25 |
$-353.26 (-2.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $217.23 | 60 | $13,079.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $253.85 | 60 | $15,284.11 | $15,284.11 |
+$2,204.86 (+16.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 2:15pm ET | $317.27 | 48 | $15,284.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $305.80 | 48 | $14,731.56 | $14,731.56 |
$-552.55 (-3.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $294.71 | 50 | $14,731.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $277.50 | 50 | $13,871.29 | $13,871.29 |
$-860.27 (-5.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $267.84 | 52 | $13,871.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $270.71 | 52 | $14,019.93 | $14,019.93 |
+$148.64 (+1.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $247.94 | 57 | $14,019.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $264.88 | 57 | $14,977.81 | $14,977.81 |
+$957.88 (+6.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $258.02 | 58 | $14,977.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $277.90 | 58 | $16,132.11 | $16,132.11 |
+$1,154.30 (+7.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $299.48 | 54 | $16,132.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $287.61 | 54 | $15,492.71 | $15,492.71 |
$-639.40 (-4.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $217.85 | 71 | $15,492.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $219.24 | 71 | $15,591.56 | $15,591.56 |
+$98.85 (+0.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $200.05 | 78 | $15,591.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $215.98 | 78 | $16,833.12 | $16,833.12 |
+$1,241.56 (+8.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $224.07 | 75 | $16,833.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $226.15 | 75 | $16,989.76 | $16,989.76 |
+$156.64 (+0.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $229.53 | 74 | $16,989.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $236.13 | 74 | $17,478.66 | $17,478.66 |
+$488.90 (+2.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $233.06 | 75 | $17,478.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $234.38 | 75 | $17,577.66 | $17,577.66 |
+$99.00 (+0.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $230.56 | 76 | $17,577.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $229.84 | 76 | $17,522.77 | $17,522.77 |
$-54.89 (-0.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $230.66 | 76 | $17,522.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $234.68 | 76 | $17,828.16 | $17,828.16 |
+$305.39 (+1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $242.39 | 74 | $17,828.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $229.60 | 74 | $16,887.44 | $16,887.44 |
$-940.72 (-5.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,887.44
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,887.44
Total Return:
+68.87%