TQQQ Wrecking Ball's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 39 trades in period
+79.22%
Last Year Return
$54,479.30
Current Value
62%
Win Rate
$30,398.09
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score PRO Scored Sep 24, 2026
79
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Score ≥ 70 + Momentum ≥ 40
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
22.0/25
Win Rate
8.6/15
Profit Factor
7.2/15
Consistency
7.9/10
Raw Quality
80.7/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 79.4
30-Day Momentum
58
+16.3%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
4
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 87.0
Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-22 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,890
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$30,398.09
Current Value
$54,479.30
Period P&L
$24,081.21
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
24 /
15
Best Trade
+10.83%
Worst Trade
-11.39%
Avg Trade Return
+1.65%
Avg Hold Time
3.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,958,224.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$24,081.21
Net P&L (after fees)
$24,081.21
Gross Return
+79.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+79.22%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $30,398.09 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 9:35am ET | $49.07 | 619 | $30,398.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 3:55pm ET | $51.32 | 619 | $31,788.83 | $31,788.83 |
+$1,390.74 (+4.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $52.53 | 605 | $31,788.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 3:55pm ET | $50.57 | 605 | $30,602.72 | $30,602.72 |
$-1,186.11 (-3.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 1:10pm ET | $50.26 | 609 | $30,602.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2025 3:55pm ET | $51.99 | 609 | $31,653.24 | $31,653.24 |
+$1,050.52 (+3.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $56.23 | 563 | $31,653.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 3:55pm ET | $53.44 | 563 | $30,079.87 | $30,079.87 |
$-1,573.37 (-5.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET | $53.60 | 561 | $30,079.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 3:55pm ET | $51.03 | 561 | $28,637.47 | $28,637.47 |
$-1,442.40 (-4.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 11:20am ET | $49.78 | 575 | $28,637.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 3:55pm ET | $47.48 | 575 | $27,314.32 | $27,314.32 |
$-1,323.15 (-4.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:45am ET | $49.26 | 555 | $27,314.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 1:00pm ET | $54.60 | 555 | $30,273.46 | $30,273.46 |
+$2,959.14 (+10.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $55.18 | 549 | $30,273.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 3:55pm ET | $52.02 | 549 | $28,537.04 | $28,537.04 |
$-1,736.42 (-5.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:55am ET | $50.46 | 566 | $28,537.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 3:55pm ET | $53.55 | 566 | $30,287.55 | $30,287.55 |
+$1,750.51 (+6.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:55am ET | $52.26 | 580 | $30,287.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $55.01 | 580 | $31,881.33 | $31,881.33 |
+$1,593.78 (+5.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:25am ET | $53.74 | 593 | $31,881.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $54.14 | 593 | $32,121.62 | $32,121.62 |
+$240.29 (+0.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 12:10pm ET | $50.83 | 632 | $32,121.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $54.39 | 632 | $34,372.89 | $34,372.89 |
+$2,251.27 (+7.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $55.19 | 623 | $34,372.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $55.12 | 623 | $34,329.29 | $34,329.29 |
$-43.60 (-0.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.63 | 706 | $34,329.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $51.75 | 706 | $36,529.23 | $36,529.23 |
+$2,199.94 (+6.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 11:10am ET | $49.32 | 741 | $36,529.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $48.30 | 741 | $35,773.76 | $35,773.76 |
$-755.47 (-2.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $49.95 | 716 | $35,773.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $49.70 | 716 | $35,592.08 | $35,592.08 |
$-181.68 (-0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 1:00pm ET | $48.56 | 733 | $35,592.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $49.41 | 733 | $36,216.65 | $36,216.65 |
+$624.57 (+1.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $47.52 | 762 | $36,216.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $47.46 | 762 | $36,170.92 | $36,170.92 |
$-45.73 (-0.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.47 | 813 | $36,170.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $44.61 | 813 | $36,284.87 | $36,284.87 |
+$113.95 (+0.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $42.76 | 849 | $36,284.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $37.89 | 849 | $32,152.33 | $32,152.33 |
$-4,132.54 (-11.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $41.03 | 784 | $32,152.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $44.15 | 784 | $34,601.47 | $34,601.47 |
+$2,449.14 (+7.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $58.11 | 595 | $34,601.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $62.64 | 595 | $37,298.91 | $37,298.91 |
+$2,697.44 (+7.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 10:25am ET | $74.25 | 502 | $37,298.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $78.94 | 502 | $39,654.84 | $39,654.84 |
+$2,355.93 (+6.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $71.51 | 554 | $39,654.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $76.93 | 554 | $42,660.21 | $42,660.21 |
+$3,005.37 (+7.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $84.02 | 508 | $42,660.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 3:55pm ET | $76.30 | 508 | $38,739.26 | $38,739.26 |
$-3,920.95 (-9.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $71.69 | 540 | $38,739.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $76.00 | 540 | $41,068.26 | $41,068.26 |
+$2,329.00 (+6.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 3:35pm ET | $77.27 | 531 | $41,068.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $82.58 | 531 | $43,890.48 | $43,890.48 |
+$2,822.22 (+6.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $72.81 | 603 | $43,890.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $71.60 | 603 | $43,157.06 | $43,157.06 |
$-733.42 (-1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.78 | 555 | $43,157.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $76.39 | 555 | $42,385.91 | $42,385.91 |
$-771.15 (-1.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.05 | 572 | $42,385.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $74.40 | 572 | $42,586.19 | $42,586.19 |
+$200.28 (+0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $65.97 | 646 | $42,586.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $71.38 | 646 | $46,078.55 | $46,078.55 |
+$3,492.36 (+8.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $67.39 | 684 | $46,078.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $63.39 | 684 | $43,340.30 | $43,340.30 |
$-2,738.25 (-5.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $59.76 | 725 | $43,340.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 3:55pm ET | $64.54 | 725 | $46,807.02 | $46,807.02 |
+$3,466.72 (+8.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.90 | 660 | $46,807.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $73.79 | 660 | $48,711.65 | $48,711.65 |
+$1,904.63 (+4.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.29 | 665 | $48,711.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $70.48 | 665 | $46,844.01 | $46,844.01 |
$-1,867.64 (-3.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $68.88 | 680 | $46,844.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $70.43 | 680 | $47,898.48 | $47,898.48 |
+$1,054.47 (+2.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $68.93 | 695 | $47,898.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $72.04 | 695 | $50,063.20 | $50,063.20 |
+$2,164.72 (+4.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $68.95 | 726 | $50,063.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $69.26 | 726 | $50,288.29 | $50,288.29 |
+$225.09 (+0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 3:10pm ET | $67.07 | 750 | $50,288.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $72.67 | 750 | $54,479.30 | $54,479.30 |
+$4,191.01 (+8.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$54,479.30
Net Profit/Loss:
+$44,479.30
Total Return:
+444.79%